IEEE Power & Energy Magazine - Spanish - September/October 2020 - 46

El modelo que se usó en este análisis se diseñó en
concreto para llevar a cabo una optimización del gasto
de capital (CAPEX) basado en el riesgo para las centrales hidroeléctricas. Utiliza curvas de probabilidad de falla
derivadas estadísticamente y su base de datos de referencia
contiene los costos, las duraciones de la interrupción y las
tarifas para los diversos modos típicos de falla e intervención de componentes. Su salida primaria es el cronograma
de intervención que proporciona el NPV total más bajo de
CAPEX, el costo (riesgo) de interrupción y los costos de
operación y mantenimiento (O&M) menos todo beneficio
de rendimiento asociado con una intervención. Esto se
ilustra en la formulación del objetivo económico dentro del
modelo en el que el NPV se calcula al sumar los términos
observados previamente (es decir, NPV = riesgo + capital
+ O&M - beneficios).
El concepto principal detrás del modelo de gestión de
activos se presenta en la figura 3, en el que las opciones de
mejora se evalúan primero mediante un análisis basado en
riesgos, seguido de un esquema de priorización para tener en
cuenta otros requerimientos operativos.
El análisis basado en riesgos es una optimización sin restricciones que examina solo las compensaciones económicas
entre las distintas inversiones de capital. El esquema de priorización/nivelación considera varias restricciones financieras y operativas, redistribuyendo así diversas intervenciones
del análisis basado en riesgos durante el periodo de tiempo
dado, de modo que se minimice el aumento de un cronograma de intervención de NPV.
El esquema de priorización/nivelación puede imponer
varios tipos de restricciones:
✔✔ límites anuales de gasto,

✔✔ ventanas permitidas o bloqueadas, que restringen el

año en que se puede producir una intervención, y
✔✔ relaciones de precedencia entre intervenciones, lo que
incluye
*	una brecha mínima de un año entre las intervenciones,
*	una brecha máxima de un año entre las intervenciones,
*	el año de intervención establecido como igual, y
*	el año de intervención no establecido como igual.
La implementación del modelo requería los siguientes
pasos:
✔✔ la determinación de las entradas del modelo mediante
*	una lista de todos los componentes para un análisis
de componentes principales,
*	una lista de todos los componentes para un análisis
de componentes secundarios,
*	evaluación de la condición: recopilación de datos,
incluida una revisión de los registros históricos,
inspecciones in situ y reunión con el personal de
ANDE,
*	la recopilación de datos de costos de las fallas,
*	la recopilación de datos de costos de las intervenciones, y
*	los beneficios del rendimiento a partir de los resultados de los modelos de Planificación de Generación
de energía.
✔✔ la calibración del modelo,
✔✔ las simulaciones del modelo para las opciones 1-4 definidas en la tabla 1,
✔✔ el análisis de sensibilidad, y
✔✔ el desarrollo integrado del plan CAPEX.

Caracterización
de activos
Evaluación de
la condición
Confiabilidad/Fallas

Opciones de mejora

Análisis
basado
en riesgos

Plan CAPEX
Proyecto de
priorización/
nivelación

Consideraciones adicionales
Salud y seguridad
Medio ambiente
Restricciones financieras
Otros

figura 3. Planificación a largo plazo con modelo de gestión de activos.
46	

ieee power & energy magazine 	

septiembre/octubre 2020



IEEE Power & Energy Magazine - Spanish - September/October 2020

Table of Contents for the Digital Edition of IEEE Power & Energy Magazine - Spanish - September/October 2020

Contents
IEEE Power & Energy Magazine - Spanish - September/October 2020 - Cover1
IEEE Power & Energy Magazine - Spanish - September/October 2020 - Cover2
IEEE Power & Energy Magazine - Spanish - September/October 2020 - Contents
IEEE Power & Energy Magazine - Spanish - September/October 2020 - 2
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IEEE Power & Energy Magazine - Spanish - September/October 2020 - Cover3
IEEE Power & Energy Magazine - Spanish - September/October 2020 - Cover4
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