IEEE Power & Energy Magazine - Spanish - September/October 2021 - 72

El AEMO publica unos cuadros de calificación en el ISP
para resumir las características positivas y negativas de cada
posible REZ.
Un enfoque integrado del
modelado de sistemas
El enfoque de planificación del AEMO pretende ofrecer la
combinación óptima de desarrollos de generación y transmisión
para cumplir con los estándares de seguridad y confiabilidad
al menor costo para los consumidores. Comenzamos
con el desarrollo de una serie de escenarios creíbles de desarrollo
económico y tecnológico global que están diseñados
para abarcar una amplia gama de futuros potenciales y creíbles.
Normalmente, nos aseguramos de que estos escenarios
varíen en varios parámetros clave, como la demanda, la tecnología,
la política y las condiciones medioambientales.
Para el ISP de 2020, asociamos cada escenario a una
determinada trayectoria de concentración representativa
(RCP, por sus siglas en inglés). Estas RCP describen las
posibles trayectorias de los gases de efecto invernadero
y su impacto en el aumento de la temperatura para el año
2100. El aumento de la temperatura media varió entre 1.4 °C
(RCP 1.9) y > 4.5 °C (RCP 8.6). Luego, estas trayectorias
se ajustan a los parámetros de la política de Australia y se
utilizan como una entrada que limita las emisiones anuales
de carbono. Por supuesto, una mayor reducción de las emisiones
se asocia a los escenarios de aumento moderado de la
temperatura.
De hecho, estos escenarios describen los posibles entornos
en los que las redes eléctricas de Australia pueden funcionar
a largo plazo. Por consiguiente, determinan las entradas
del marco de modelado, que incluye cuatro componentes
principales:
✔ el modelo de perspectivas de capacidad;
✔ el modelo secuencial en el tiempo;
✔ el modelo de suministro de gas; y
✔ la evaluación de ingeniería.
Estos cuatro componentes están interconectados, por lo que
adoptamos un proceso de varias etapas con diversos bucles
de retroalimentación, como se muestra en la figura 5. Aplicamos
múltiples iteraciones de modelado para converger en
una visión razonable de cómo pueden evolucionar los sistemas
de gas y electricidad en cada escenario.
El modelo de perspectivas de capacidad
La primera etapa del modelo consiste en determinar las perspectivas
de capacidad tanto de las infraestructuras de gas
como de las de electricidad. Las perspectivas de capacidad
permiten estimar las principales decisiones de inversión, ya
sea para la generación y transmisión de electricidad o para el
suministro y transmisión de gas, que resultan en el sistema
eléctrico más rentable y conforme a los estándares de confiabilidad.
La perspectiva de capacidad es básicamente solucionar
una función objetiva, cuya meta es satisfacer de manera
confiable (definida por los estándares de confiabilidad de
Australia) la demanda de electricidad para el NEM durante
Escenario
de previsión
de demanda
y energía
Escenario de los
impulsores
(políticas,
emisiones, etc.)
Parámetros de
generación y
posibles REZ
Posibles proyectos
de transmisión
Modelo de expansión de la generación y la transmisión
Modelo de
suministro
de gas
Expansión de la
generación
Expansión de la
transmisión
Análisis del
sistema
eléctrico
Modelo de secuencia temporal a corto plazo
Resultados del despacho
figura 5. Una visión general del marco de modelado del AEMO. (Fuente: AEMO; usado con permiso).
72
ieee power & energy magazine
septiembre/octubre 2021

IEEE Power & Energy Magazine - Spanish - September/October 2021

Table of Contents for the Digital Edition of IEEE Power & Energy Magazine - Spanish - September/October 2021

Contents
IEEE Power & Energy Magazine - Spanish - September/October 2021 - Cover1
IEEE Power & Energy Magazine - Spanish - September/October 2021 - Cover2
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