IEEE Power & Energy Magazine - Spanish - November/December 2022 - 49

cuenta los patrones climáticos reales y otras variables. Comparamos
esta estimación contrafáctica con los datos reales
de consumo de electricidad para cuantificar el cambio en el
consumo relacionado solo con la pandemia. Para analizar
las diferencias en los impactos en los patrones de consumo
residencial y no residencial, desarrollamos modelos contrafácticos
para ambas clases de clientes. Los datos son agregados
en varios condados del Área de la Bahía (San Francisco,
San Mateo, Santa Clara, Marín y Alameda) utilizando cinco
años de datos de consumo de electricidad (del 1.º de enero de
2016 al 31 de diciembre de 2020).
Entrenamos dos modelos contrafácticos: uno para
la energía residencial consumida en un día y otro para la
energía no residencial consumida en un día agregada en
los cinco condados del Área de la Bahía de San Francisco
mencionados anteriormente. Entrenamos modelos de regresión
lineal utilizando Lasso, un método que realiza tanto la
regularización como la selección de variables para mejorar
la precisión de la previsión y evitar el sobreajuste. Las características
del modelo de regresión incorporan datos meteorológicos
y de días festivos. Utilizamos indicadores categóricos
para cada día festivo específico, una variable para
Alameda
120,000
110,000
100,000
90,000
80,000
70,000
16,000
15,000
14,000
13,000
12,000
11,000
01 mar 2020 15 mar 2020
55,000
50,000
45,000
40,000
01 mar 2020 15 mar 2020
50,000
45,000
40,000
01 mar 2020 15 mar 2020
160,000
140,000
120,000
100,000
01 mar 2020 15 mar 2020
01 abr 2020 15 abr 2020 01 mayo 2020 15 mayo 2020 01 jun 2020
figura 1. El consumo diario en 2020 en comparación con días comparables en 2016-2019 para condados seleccionados
en el Área de la Bahía de California. La línea negra en negrita representa el consumo eléctrico en 2020. La región
sombreada en azul representa el rango (mínimo a máximo) del consumo eléctrico durante los días equivalentes del año
en 2016-2019. La región sombreada en naranja representa la brecha entre el consumo mínimo observado en el periodo
2016-2019 y el consumo real visto en 2020, donde el consumo de 2020 está por debajo del mínimo de 2016-2019.
noviembre/diciembre 2022
ieee power & energy magazine
49
01 abr 2020 15 abr 2020 01 mayo 2020 15 mayo 2020 01 jun 2020
Santa Clara
01 abr 2020 15 abr 2020 01 mayo 2020 15 mayo 2020 01 jun 2020
San Mateo
01 abr 2020 15 abr 2020 01 mayo 2020 15 mayo 2020 01 jun 2020
San Francisco
Antes de mandato de
01 mar 2020
refugiarse en el lugar en el Área de la Bahía
15 mar 2020
01 abr 2020
15 abr 2020 01 mayo 2020 15 mayo 2020 01 jun 2020
Marin
Conumo diario
(MWh)
Conumo diario
(MWh)
Conumo diario
(MWh)
Conumo diario
(MWh)
Conumo diario
(MWh)

IEEE Power & Energy Magazine - Spanish - November/December 2022

Table of Contents for the Digital Edition of IEEE Power & Energy Magazine - Spanish - November/December 2022

Contents
IEEE Power & Energy Magazine - Spanish - November/December 2022 - Cover1
IEEE Power & Energy Magazine - Spanish - November/December 2022 - Cover2
IEEE Power & Energy Magazine - Spanish - November/December 2022 - Contents
IEEE Power & Energy Magazine - Spanish - November/December 2022 - 2
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IEEE Power & Energy Magazine - Spanish - November/December 2022 - Cover3
IEEE Power & Energy Magazine - Spanish - November/December 2022 - Cover4
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