IEEE Power & Energy Magazine - Spanish - November 2019 - 52

El uso de
pronósticos
probabilísticos

Su
aplicación
en la teoría
y la práctica

D

DADO QUE GRAN PARTE DEL SISTEMA ELÉC-
trico depende del clima, nuestra capacidad de pronóstico
contribuye a su funcionamiento eficiente y económico.
Las predicciones climatológicas de las variables meteoro-
lógicas son utilizadas para la planificación a largo plazo,
capturando frecuencias cambiantes de eventos extre-
mos, como periodos de frío y calor, e identificando
ubicaciones adecuadas para desplegar nuevas fuentes.
La planificación del suministro y del mantenimiento
del combustible se basa en predicciones subestacio-
nales a estacionales. En periodos de días más cortos,
el clima afecta tanto la demanda como la oferta de
energía. La carga eléctrica depende enormemente del
clima, ya que la electricidad se usa para calefacción
y refrigeración. A medida que se emplea más energía
renovable, se vuelve cada vez más importante com-
prender cómo varían estas fuentes de energía con las
condiciones atmosféricas; por lo tanto, las predicciones
son necesarias para planificar los compromisos de las
unidades. En escalas de minutos a horas, las prediccio-
nes a corto plazo ayudan en la integración de la red en
tiempo real de estas fuentes de energía variable (VER,
por sus siglas en inglés).
Los meteorólogos usan las ecuaciones dinámicas de
movimiento de fluidos para predecir el clima al integrar
numéricamente esas ecuaciones en el futuro en modelos
de predicciones meteorológicas numéricas (NWP, por sus
siglas en inglés). El clima es variable e incierto. Debido a
que las ecuaciones son no lineales, son intrínsecamente
caóticas. Por lo tanto, ligeros cambios en las condiciones
iniciales o límites, o cambios en la representación de los
procesos físicos, pueden conducir a grandes cambios en

Identificador de Objeto Digital 10.1109/MPE.2019.2932639
Fecha de la versión actual: 18 de octubre de 2019

52

ieee power & energy magazine

1540-7977/19©2019IEEE

noviembre/diciembre 2019



IEEE Power & Energy Magazine - Spanish - November 2019

Table of Contents for the Digital Edition of IEEE Power & Energy Magazine - Spanish - November 2019

Contents
IEEE Power & Energy Magazine - Spanish - November 2019 - Cover1
IEEE Power & Energy Magazine - Spanish - November 2019 - Cover2
IEEE Power & Energy Magazine - Spanish - November 2019 - Contents
IEEE Power & Energy Magazine - Spanish - November 2019 - 2
IEEE Power & Energy Magazine - Spanish - November 2019 - 3
IEEE Power & Energy Magazine - Spanish - November 2019 - 4
IEEE Power & Energy Magazine - Spanish - November 2019 - 5
IEEE Power & Energy Magazine - Spanish - November 2019 - 6
IEEE Power & Energy Magazine - Spanish - November 2019 - 7
IEEE Power & Energy Magazine - Spanish - November 2019 - 8
IEEE Power & Energy Magazine - Spanish - November 2019 - 9
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IEEE Power & Energy Magazine - Spanish - November 2019 - Cover3
IEEE Power & Energy Magazine - Spanish - November 2019 - Cover4
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