IEEE Power & Energy Magazine - Spanish - November 2019 - 53
Por Sue Ellen Haupt, Mayte Garcia Casado,
Michael Davidson, Jan Dobschinski, Pengwei Du,
Matthias Lange, Timothy Miller, Corinna Möhrlen,
Amber Motley, Rui Pestana y John Zack
los pronósticos. Los meteorólogos han aprendido a lidiar con la incertidumbre resultante al ela-
borar pronósticos probabilísticos.
También existen diversos grados de incertidumbre en casi todas las demás partes del funciona-
miento del sistema eléctrico, incluida la predicción de carga, la capacidad dinámica de las líneas
de transmisión y las interrupciones no programadas de generadores no variables y fuentes de
transmisión. Algunos de estos dependen del clima, mientras que otros están relacionados con dife-
rentes factores de incertidumbre. Por lo tanto, todo el sistema tiene incertidumbres que se manejan
de manera más efectiva con un enfoque probabilístico.
Debido a que tanto la atmósfera como el sistema
eléctrico con VER significativas poseen grandes incer-
tidumbres, se hace necesario un enfoque probabilístico
de predicción y planificación para optimizar los sistemas
dependientes del clima. El uso de información probabi-
lística brinda conocimiento que se puede utilizar para
mejorar la conciencia situacional, evaluar múltiples esce-
narios potenciales de la red, optimizar los resultados eco-
nómicos, aprovechar las estadísticas inteligentes y mejo-
rar los planes. Los pronósticos probabilísticos no deben
considerarse el único medio para resolver el problema de
la previsibilidad de la producción de las VER, sino más
bien como una forma de avanzar para abordar mejor las
diversas tareas específicas en el funcionamiento del sis-
tema energético. Estos pronósticos brindan la posibilidad
de tomar decisiones basadas en una mejor suposición y
prepararse para los escenarios o extremos menos proba-
bles (menor probabilidad) que pueden causar problemas
de seguridad en la red, como costos excesivos para equi-
librar un mal funcionamiento o fallas en los servicios o
equipos. Describiremos algunas de las principales for-
mas en que se utilizan las predicciones probabilísticas y
mostraremos cómo podrían aprovecharse adicionalmente
para mejorar el funcionamiento y la planificación del sis-
tema energético.
©ISTOCKPHOTO.COM/IG0RZH
Desarrollo de pronósticos
probabilísticos
noviembre/diciembre 2019
En la actualidad, se utilizan cuatro metodologías princi-
pales para generar pronósticos probabilísticos en la indus-
tria energética:
✔ tipo 1: métodos estadísticos de pronósticos probabilís-
ticos
✔ tipo 2: escenarios basados en estadísticas
✔ tipo 3: predicciones de conjuntos físicas
✔ tipo 4: predicciones de conjuntos basadas en pertur-
baciones.
ieee power & energy magazine
53
http://www.ISTOCKPHOTO.COM/IG0RZH
IEEE Power & Energy Magazine - Spanish - November 2019
Table of Contents for the Digital Edition of IEEE Power & Energy Magazine - Spanish - November 2019
Contents
IEEE Power & Energy Magazine - Spanish - November 2019 - Cover1
IEEE Power & Energy Magazine - Spanish - November 2019 - Cover2
IEEE Power & Energy Magazine - Spanish - November 2019 - Contents
IEEE Power & Energy Magazine - Spanish - November 2019 - 2
IEEE Power & Energy Magazine - Spanish - November 2019 - 3
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IEEE Power & Energy Magazine - Spanish - November 2019 - Cover3
IEEE Power & Energy Magazine - Spanish - November 2019 - Cover4
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