IEEE Power & Energy Magazine - Spanish - November 2019 - 58
mitigar el riesgo de errores de predicción que no se materia-
lizan, el costo de la confiabilidad del sistema debido a una
interpretación incorrecta del pronóstico equivale al pago
complementario de los generadores comprometidos.
Además de los estudios de confiabilidad de varios días, SPP
evalúa los posibles errores de pronóstico en la predicción eólica
durante horizontes de 1, 4 y 8 horas durante varios días. Para
esta evaluación de incertidumbre, SPP aplica errores probables
y luego evalúa la capacidad disponible durante cada horizonte
en busca de suficiencia. El error probable se determina corre-
lacionando el clima previsto con los últimos errores de pre-
dicción eólica del percentil 95. En los casos en que los errores
exceden la capacidad disponible de un horizonte particular, se
pueden tomar medidas para asegurar la capacidad más allá de
ese horizonte y garantizar operaciones confiables del sistema.
Un equipo interno de respuesta a la incertidumbre evalúa el
clima y otras condiciones del sistema para identificar perio-
dos de alto riesgo durante los cuales SPP puede enfrentar una
mayor incertidumbre en la carga y las predicciones de VER.
Una mayor conciencia sobre los impactos de la incertidumbre
de la predicción ha ayudado a SPP a mantener operaciones
confiables durante las excursiones de predicción. El grupo con-
tinúa trabajando con proveedores de pronósticos para obtener
una mejor visibilidad de los intervalos de alta incertidumbre.
Otros operadores están aplicando análisis similares o
están considerando hacerlo. Por ejemplo, el GRT portu-
gués valora la capacidad de los pronósticos probabilísticos
para cuantificar las reservas adicionales necesarias debido
a errores en la predicción de la generación de VER renova-
ble (eólica, solar e hidráulica). La información probabilística
proporciona el intervalo de confianza que el operador nece-
sita para la gestión del sistema.
00:00 CDT
00:00 CDT
375 MW
500 MW
00:00 CDT
750 MW
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
22:00 CDT
02:00 CDT
1,000 MW
100
90
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
22:00 CDT
02:00 CDT
750 MW
1,000 MW
00:00 CDT
1,500 MW
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
22:00 CDT
02:00 CDT
2,000 MW
(%)
(%)
500 MW
Probabilidad de 180 min.
02:00 CDT
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
22:00 CDT
(%)
(%)
Probabilidad de 60 min.
250 MW
100
90
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
22:00 CDT
Descendente
(%)
(%)
Probabilidad de 15 min.
Ascendente
100
90
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
22:00 CDT
00:00 CDT
1,000 MW
02:00 CDT
1,500 MW
2,000 MW
00:00 CDT
3,000 MW
02:00 CDT
4,000 MW
gráfico 7. Muestra de predicciones de ELRAS. CDT: Hora diaria central.
58
ieee power & energy magazine
noviembre/diciembre 2019
IEEE Power & Energy Magazine - Spanish - November 2019
Table of Contents for the Digital Edition of IEEE Power & Energy Magazine - Spanish - November 2019
Contents
IEEE Power & Energy Magazine - Spanish - November 2019 - Cover1
IEEE Power & Energy Magazine - Spanish - November 2019 - Cover2
IEEE Power & Energy Magazine - Spanish - November 2019 - Contents
IEEE Power & Energy Magazine - Spanish - November 2019 - 2
IEEE Power & Energy Magazine - Spanish - November 2019 - 3
IEEE Power & Energy Magazine - Spanish - November 2019 - 4
IEEE Power & Energy Magazine - Spanish - November 2019 - 5
IEEE Power & Energy Magazine - Spanish - November 2019 - 6
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IEEE Power & Energy Magazine - Spanish - November 2019 - 8
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IEEE Power & Energy Magazine - Spanish - November 2019 - 118
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IEEE Power & Energy Magazine - Spanish - November 2019 - 133
IEEE Power & Energy Magazine - Spanish - November 2019 - 134
IEEE Power & Energy Magazine - Spanish - November 2019 - Cover3
IEEE Power & Energy Magazine - Spanish - November 2019 - Cover4
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