IEEE Power & Energy Magazine - Spanish - November 2019 - 60

montañosas, pero rara vez cubren gran parte de una jurisdic-
ción determinada. En algunas regiones, si la energía eólica
se está produciendo con un nivel de capacidad total, la pene-
tración de la energía eólica alcanzaría un nivel que puede
satisfacer o superar la demanda local. En dichas áreas, la
paralización concurrente de múltiples plantas eólicas debido
a las altas velocidades del viento puede causar problemas en
el sistema.
Irlanda es un área en donde prácticamente todas las
plantas eólicas pueden experimentar generación completa
cuando las velocidades del viento alcanzan aproximada-
mente 15 m/s y continuar hasta que las plantas alcanzan su
punto de ajuste de HSSD. Las mediciones de energía no indi-
can cuándo se alcanzan dichos puntos de ajuste en el rango
de velocidad del viento por debajo del HSSD: es decir, 20-25
m/s. Con la predicción y señalización de la alta velocidad del
viento, un operador del sistema puede prepararse para even-
tos de HSSD a gran magnitud. Dado que la falta de energía
es más peligrosa para la confiabilidad del sistema energé-
tico que el excedente, que siempre se puede restringir, existe
una necesidad de acción mucho antes de que una predicción
determinista pueda proporcionar información precisa.
El pronóstico de probabilidad de un evento de HSSD
permite al operador del sistema verificar la confiabilidad

presenta el pronóstico eólico probabilístico para los percenti-
les 50, 90, 95 y 98. Los operadores pueden seleccionar uno de
estos pronóstico eólicos en la herramienta en línea. Por ejem-
plo, la línea verde representa la predicción de carga, mientras
que la línea azul representa la capacidad de generación en
línea cuando se considera el pronóstico eólico del percentil
50. La capacidad de generación en línea con un pronóstico
eólico del percentil 90 aparece en rojo. Las reservas [regu-
lación positiva (naranja) y sin funcionamiento (púrpura)] se
superponen en la línea roja, lo que representa una capacidad
de generación adicional en caso de ser necesario. En este
ejemplo, después de las 18:00, existe una probabilidad supe-
rior al 10 % de que la carga prevista sea mayor que la capa-
cidad de generación en línea pronosticada. Debido a que se
adquieren reservas, el sistema mantiene suficiente capacidad
de generación para atender la carga.

Uso de pronósticos probabilísticos para
eventos extremos, como la evaluación del
riesgo de paralización de alta velocidad: un
caso irlandés
Los eventos de paralización de alta velocidad (HSSD, por
sus siglas en inglés), causados por velocidades del viento cer-
canas a 25 m/s, ocurren principalmente en áreas costeras o

Caso 2

35
%
35%

30%
30
%

Caso 1

Caso 1:
Probabilidad del 10 % de corte de >84 %
Probabilidad del 30 % de corte de >25 %
Probabilidad del 50 % de corte de >10 %
Probabilidad del 90 % de corte de ~5 %
(P90-P60)
Caso 2:
Probabilidad del 10 % de corte de >55 %
Probabilidad del 35 % de corte de >30 %
Probabilidad del 50 % de corte de >16 %
Probabilidad del 90 % de corte de ~5 %
(P90-P550)

Resultado del escenario de corte real:
Caso 1: corte máximo del 25 %
Caso 2: corte máximo del 35 %

gráfico 10. Ejemplo de un evento extremo acoplado que causó un HSSD significativo y cómo se aplicó el sistema de
advertencia de HSSD. En este ejemplo, los criterios de advertencia presentaron una probabilidad mínima de 25 % para una
capacidad de 20 % en un HSSD con un mínimo de tres predicciones consecutivas. (Fuente: WEPROG; usado con permiso.)
60

ieee power & energy magazine

noviembre/diciembre 2019



IEEE Power & Energy Magazine - Spanish - November 2019

Table of Contents for the Digital Edition of IEEE Power & Energy Magazine - Spanish - November 2019

Contents
IEEE Power & Energy Magazine - Spanish - November 2019 - Cover1
IEEE Power & Energy Magazine - Spanish - November 2019 - Cover2
IEEE Power & Energy Magazine - Spanish - November 2019 - Contents
IEEE Power & Energy Magazine - Spanish - November 2019 - 2
IEEE Power & Energy Magazine - Spanish - November 2019 - 3
IEEE Power & Energy Magazine - Spanish - November 2019 - 4
IEEE Power & Energy Magazine - Spanish - November 2019 - 5
IEEE Power & Energy Magazine - Spanish - November 2019 - 6
IEEE Power & Energy Magazine - Spanish - November 2019 - 7
IEEE Power & Energy Magazine - Spanish - November 2019 - 8
IEEE Power & Energy Magazine - Spanish - November 2019 - 9
IEEE Power & Energy Magazine - Spanish - November 2019 - 10
IEEE Power & Energy Magazine - Spanish - November 2019 - 11
IEEE Power & Energy Magazine - Spanish - November 2019 - 12
IEEE Power & Energy Magazine - Spanish - November 2019 - 13
IEEE Power & Energy Magazine - Spanish - November 2019 - 14
IEEE Power & Energy Magazine - Spanish - November 2019 - 15
IEEE Power & Energy Magazine - Spanish - November 2019 - 16
IEEE Power & Energy Magazine - Spanish - November 2019 - 17
IEEE Power & Energy Magazine - Spanish - November 2019 - 18
IEEE Power & Energy Magazine - Spanish - November 2019 - 19
IEEE Power & Energy Magazine - Spanish - November 2019 - 20
IEEE Power & Energy Magazine - Spanish - November 2019 - 21
IEEE Power & Energy Magazine - Spanish - November 2019 - 22
IEEE Power & Energy Magazine - Spanish - November 2019 - 23
IEEE Power & Energy Magazine - Spanish - November 2019 - 24
IEEE Power & Energy Magazine - Spanish - November 2019 - 25
IEEE Power & Energy Magazine - Spanish - November 2019 - 26
IEEE Power & Energy Magazine - Spanish - November 2019 - 27
IEEE Power & Energy Magazine - Spanish - November 2019 - 28
IEEE Power & Energy Magazine - Spanish - November 2019 - 29
IEEE Power & Energy Magazine - Spanish - November 2019 - 30
IEEE Power & Energy Magazine - Spanish - November 2019 - 31
IEEE Power & Energy Magazine - Spanish - November 2019 - 32
IEEE Power & Energy Magazine - Spanish - November 2019 - 33
IEEE Power & Energy Magazine - Spanish - November 2019 - 34
IEEE Power & Energy Magazine - Spanish - November 2019 - 35
IEEE Power & Energy Magazine - Spanish - November 2019 - 36
IEEE Power & Energy Magazine - Spanish - November 2019 - 37
IEEE Power & Energy Magazine - Spanish - November 2019 - 38
IEEE Power & Energy Magazine - Spanish - November 2019 - 39
IEEE Power & Energy Magazine - Spanish - November 2019 - 40
IEEE Power & Energy Magazine - Spanish - November 2019 - 41
IEEE Power & Energy Magazine - Spanish - November 2019 - 42
IEEE Power & Energy Magazine - Spanish - November 2019 - 43
IEEE Power & Energy Magazine - Spanish - November 2019 - 44
IEEE Power & Energy Magazine - Spanish - November 2019 - 45
IEEE Power & Energy Magazine - Spanish - November 2019 - 46
IEEE Power & Energy Magazine - Spanish - November 2019 - 47
IEEE Power & Energy Magazine - Spanish - November 2019 - 48
IEEE Power & Energy Magazine - Spanish - November 2019 - 49
IEEE Power & Energy Magazine - Spanish - November 2019 - 50
IEEE Power & Energy Magazine - Spanish - November 2019 - 51
IEEE Power & Energy Magazine - Spanish - November 2019 - 52
IEEE Power & Energy Magazine - Spanish - November 2019 - 53
IEEE Power & Energy Magazine - Spanish - November 2019 - 54
IEEE Power & Energy Magazine - Spanish - November 2019 - 55
IEEE Power & Energy Magazine - Spanish - November 2019 - 56
IEEE Power & Energy Magazine - Spanish - November 2019 - 57
IEEE Power & Energy Magazine - Spanish - November 2019 - 58
IEEE Power & Energy Magazine - Spanish - November 2019 - 59
IEEE Power & Energy Magazine - Spanish - November 2019 - 60
IEEE Power & Energy Magazine - Spanish - November 2019 - 61
IEEE Power & Energy Magazine - Spanish - November 2019 - 62
IEEE Power & Energy Magazine - Spanish - November 2019 - 63
IEEE Power & Energy Magazine - Spanish - November 2019 - 64
IEEE Power & Energy Magazine - Spanish - November 2019 - 65
IEEE Power & Energy Magazine - Spanish - November 2019 - 66
IEEE Power & Energy Magazine - Spanish - November 2019 - 67
IEEE Power & Energy Magazine - Spanish - November 2019 - 68
IEEE Power & Energy Magazine - Spanish - November 2019 - 69
IEEE Power & Energy Magazine - Spanish - November 2019 - 70
IEEE Power & Energy Magazine - Spanish - November 2019 - 71
IEEE Power & Energy Magazine - Spanish - November 2019 - 72
IEEE Power & Energy Magazine - Spanish - November 2019 - 73
IEEE Power & Energy Magazine - Spanish - November 2019 - 74
IEEE Power & Energy Magazine - Spanish - November 2019 - 75
IEEE Power & Energy Magazine - Spanish - November 2019 - 76
IEEE Power & Energy Magazine - Spanish - November 2019 - 77
IEEE Power & Energy Magazine - Spanish - November 2019 - 78
IEEE Power & Energy Magazine - Spanish - November 2019 - 79
IEEE Power & Energy Magazine - Spanish - November 2019 - 80
IEEE Power & Energy Magazine - Spanish - November 2019 - 81
IEEE Power & Energy Magazine - Spanish - November 2019 - 82
IEEE Power & Energy Magazine - Spanish - November 2019 - 83
IEEE Power & Energy Magazine - Spanish - November 2019 - 84
IEEE Power & Energy Magazine - Spanish - November 2019 - 85
IEEE Power & Energy Magazine - Spanish - November 2019 - 86
IEEE Power & Energy Magazine - Spanish - November 2019 - 87
IEEE Power & Energy Magazine - Spanish - November 2019 - 88
IEEE Power & Energy Magazine - Spanish - November 2019 - 89
IEEE Power & Energy Magazine - Spanish - November 2019 - 90
IEEE Power & Energy Magazine - Spanish - November 2019 - 91
IEEE Power & Energy Magazine - Spanish - November 2019 - 92
IEEE Power & Energy Magazine - Spanish - November 2019 - 93
IEEE Power & Energy Magazine - Spanish - November 2019 - 94
IEEE Power & Energy Magazine - Spanish - November 2019 - 95
IEEE Power & Energy Magazine - Spanish - November 2019 - 96
IEEE Power & Energy Magazine - Spanish - November 2019 - 97
IEEE Power & Energy Magazine - Spanish - November 2019 - 98
IEEE Power & Energy Magazine - Spanish - November 2019 - 99
IEEE Power & Energy Magazine - Spanish - November 2019 - 100
IEEE Power & Energy Magazine - Spanish - November 2019 - 101
IEEE Power & Energy Magazine - Spanish - November 2019 - 102
IEEE Power & Energy Magazine - Spanish - November 2019 - 103
IEEE Power & Energy Magazine - Spanish - November 2019 - 104
IEEE Power & Energy Magazine - Spanish - November 2019 - 105
IEEE Power & Energy Magazine - Spanish - November 2019 - 106
IEEE Power & Energy Magazine - Spanish - November 2019 - 107
IEEE Power & Energy Magazine - Spanish - November 2019 - 108
IEEE Power & Energy Magazine - Spanish - November 2019 - 109
IEEE Power & Energy Magazine - Spanish - November 2019 - 110
IEEE Power & Energy Magazine - Spanish - November 2019 - 111
IEEE Power & Energy Magazine - Spanish - November 2019 - 112
IEEE Power & Energy Magazine - Spanish - November 2019 - 113
IEEE Power & Energy Magazine - Spanish - November 2019 - 114
IEEE Power & Energy Magazine - Spanish - November 2019 - 115
IEEE Power & Energy Magazine - Spanish - November 2019 - 116
IEEE Power & Energy Magazine - Spanish - November 2019 - 117
IEEE Power & Energy Magazine - Spanish - November 2019 - 118
IEEE Power & Energy Magazine - Spanish - November 2019 - 119
IEEE Power & Energy Magazine - Spanish - November 2019 - 120
IEEE Power & Energy Magazine - Spanish - November 2019 - 121
IEEE Power & Energy Magazine - Spanish - November 2019 - 122
IEEE Power & Energy Magazine - Spanish - November 2019 - 123
IEEE Power & Energy Magazine - Spanish - November 2019 - 124
IEEE Power & Energy Magazine - Spanish - November 2019 - 125
IEEE Power & Energy Magazine - Spanish - November 2019 - 126
IEEE Power & Energy Magazine - Spanish - November 2019 - 127
IEEE Power & Energy Magazine - Spanish - November 2019 - 128
IEEE Power & Energy Magazine - Spanish - November 2019 - 129
IEEE Power & Energy Magazine - Spanish - November 2019 - 130
IEEE Power & Energy Magazine - Spanish - November 2019 - 131
IEEE Power & Energy Magazine - Spanish - November 2019 - 132
IEEE Power & Energy Magazine - Spanish - November 2019 - 133
IEEE Power & Energy Magazine - Spanish - November 2019 - 134
IEEE Power & Energy Magazine - Spanish - November 2019 - Cover3
IEEE Power & Energy Magazine - Spanish - November 2019 - Cover4
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/pes/powerenergy_sp_0708_2021
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/pes/powerenergy_sp_0506_2021
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/pes/powerenergy_sp_0304_2021
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/pes/powerenergy_sp_0102_2021
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/pes/powerenergy_sp_111220
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/pes/powerenergy_sp_091020
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/pes/powerenergy_sp_070820
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/pes/powerenergy_sp_050620
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/pes/powerenergy_sp_030420
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/pes/powerenergy_sp_010220
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/pes/powerenergy_sp_1119
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/pes/powerenergy_sp_091019
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/pes/powerenergy_sp_070819
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/pes/powerenergy_sp_050619
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/pes/powerenergy_sp_030419
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/pes/powerenergy_sp_010219
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/pes/powerenergy_sp_111218
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/pes/powerenergy_sp_091018
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/pes/powerenergy_sp_070818
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/pes/powerenergy_sp_050618
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/pes/powerenergy_sp_030418
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/pes/powerenergy_sp_010218
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/pes/powerenergy_sp_0917
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/pes/powerenergy_sp_0717
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/pes/powerenergy_sp_0517
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/pes/powerenergy_sp_0117
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/pes/powerenergy_sp_0317
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/pes/powerenergy_sp_1116
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/pes/powerenergy_sp_0916
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/pes/powerenergy_sp_111217
https://www.nxtbookmedia.com