Pennsylvania Game News - July 2021 - 12

Odds & Ends
The odds against Julia Lawfer drawing an
archery elk tag in just her second season of
applying weren't as long as you might think.
With a bonus-point system that gives an
elk-license applicant an additional chance for
each year they've applied, those who have
entered the license lottery since the start
have the best chance of being drawn.
In the 2020 general season drawing, such
applicants had 18 chances.
But here's the thing: separate applications
are required for the general, archery
and late elk season license drawings, and the
archery and late elk seasons are only now
going into their third years.
That means there's less of a gap between
first-time and longtime applicants.
The 2020 archery season drawing had
22,537 people competing for 26 elk tags.
Those, like Julia, in the archery elk drawing
for the first time had a 1-in-742 chance
of getting a license, so long as they were
open to either a bull or cow tag. The odds
were 1-in-985 for first-timers seeking a cow
only, and 1-in-3,009 for those willing to take
only a bull.
Those who applied for an archery elk
license in both years - who had one bonus
point going into last fall -- had a better chance
of getting a license. Their odds were 1-in-370
if willing to take either a cow or bull, 1-in-492
for a cow tag and 1-in-1,504 for a bull tag.
Hunters interested in participating in
the late season had a real shot at drawing
a license, too.
There were 13,463 entries for that
season, and 34 cow tags. The odds of a firsttimer
drawing a tag there were 1-in-500. For
those with one bonus point, it was 1-in-249.
In the 2021-22 license year, 39 cow tags
and 10 bull tags will be awarded for the late
season.
Hunters applying for a general season
elk tag for the first time ever last year had a
1-in-9,173 chance of drawing a bull elk tag, a
1-in-1,659 chance of drawing a cow tag and
a 1-in-1,405 chance of getting a tag if they
were willing to take either.
Those who had the maximum 18 entries
in the system faced 1-in-509 odds of drawing
a bull tag, 1-in-91 odds of drawing a cow tag
and 1-in-77 chances if they were willing to
take either.
12
Julia got a license and hunted - for
whitetails -- for the first time in 2019-20.
She saw some deer, but never got a shot.
She and her dad both entered the
elk license drawing that year, putting
in for the regular season lottery. They
weren't drawn, but decided to try again in
2020-21, this time adding entries for the
archery season that runs for two weeks
in September.
" It was one of those things, " Brian said,
" where I was filling out the applications
and I said, 'if I put your name in, and it
gets drawn, however remote that chance
is, are you ready to do this?' And she said,
no hesitation, yeah, OK. "
Weeks later, a relative texted Brian at
work, then sent him a screenshot of the
lottery drawing results to let him know
that Julia had indeed drawn a tag.
That set in motion worlds of preparation.
Julia - who said she prefers her
crossbow to gun hunting because it's
quieter - started practicing for the upcoming
season.
" I didn't do much shooting over the
summer. But once I found out I got an elk
license, I did it pretty much every day, "
Julia said.
Still, success was not necessarily easy
to come by. Julia's tag was for Elk Hunt
Zone 14 in the northeast corner of the elk
range, in the area around Kettle Creek
State Park. It's about 86 percent public
land.
Working with a guide from Quehanna
Outfitters, Julia - accompanied by her dad
and uncle, Nate Lawfer - hunted the first
day of the September archery season, a
Saturday. They saw numerous elk, and
heard rutting bulls bugling, but Julia was
not able to get a shot at a cow.
That did nothing to dampen her enthusiasm.
Rather, it stoked the fires.
" I remember something she said as she
Pennsylvania Game News - July 2021

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