Pharmaceutical Commerce - July/August 2017 - 7

Top News
EvaluatePharma's look ahead:
2022 global pharma sales will
hit $1.06 trillion
Novartis, Pfizer and Roche will run neck-and-neck for
global leader spot
Something of a sea change occurred
between the annual forecast made by
EvaluatePharma last year and this year: then,
the company predicted 2017 global sales to be
$822 billion; now, it projects $774 billion, up
only 0.8% from the year before. Sales growth
will increase by 4.7 and 6.8% between this
year and 2022, with global sales reaching $1.06
trillion by 2022 (as compared to last year's $1.12
trillion. Oddly, Evaluate chose not to project out
to 2023 this year.) If a cumulative $390 billion
in sales is taken out of the equation between
2016 and 2022, as currently predicted, the
industry is looking at a grimmer future (all that
being said, sales growth is projected for each of
the intervening years between now and 2022;
pharma may be one of the few industries that
always counts on growth above inflation).
EvaluatePharma's analysts blame pricing pressure for the shortfall this year, and point to
disappointing results from recently introduced drugs like Sanofi's Praluent, Amgen's Repatha
and GSK's Nucala. "The continued political and public scrutiny over pricing of both the
industry's new and old drugs is not going to go away and we are starting to feel the impact
now. Market access is becoming harder," said Antonio Iervolino, head of forecasting.
Top of the top
In the race for industry leadership, Novartis, Pfizer and Roche will wind up in 2022 within
$100 million of each other, with Novartis the possible leader at $49.8 in sales, and with a
compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 3%. Pfizer's projected CAGR is 1%, while Roche's is
4%. Two companies are projected to show dramatic falloffs in their rank: Gilead Sciences, whose
2022 sales will drop nearly a third (to $20.8 billion), and will fall from No. 7 to No. 16 in ranking;
and Allergan, whose sales will grow by a relatively paltry $600 million, to $19.2 billion, and
whose rank will fall from 12 to 18. Conversely, Celgene is projected to jump from No. 21 to No.
10, with a 15% CAGR, driven in large part by its blood-cancer treatment, Revlimid.
Among other data, EvaluatePharma's World Preview 2017, Outlook to 2022, finds:
* The average R&D spend for a new molecular entity (NME), since 2006, is $4
billion;
* Global pharma R&D spending will grow only 0.5% this year (to $157.5 billion),
then accelerate at a 2.5-3.0% per year rate through 2022, reaching $180.9 billion;
* Biologics will contribute 52% of the top 100 product sales by 2022; Roche leads
market;

Top 20 Global Pharma Companies, 2016-2022
2022
2016
Global Sales, Global Sales,
Billion Dollars Billion Dollars

CAGR, %

Change
in Rank

41.6

3

1

49.7

45.9

1

-1

Roche

49.6

39.6

4

0

4

Sanofi

41.7

34.2

3

1

5

Johnson & Johnson

40.5

31.7

4

1

6

Merck & Co.

38.5

35.7

1

-2

7

AbbVie

34.0

25.3

5

2

8

GlaxoSmithKline

33.7

27.8

3

0

9

AstraZeneca

28.4

21.0

5

2

10

Celgene

26.0

11.1

15

11

11

Bristol-Myers Squibb

25.6

17.7

6

3

12

Amgen

24.1

21.9

2

-2

13

Teva Pharma

22.3

18.5

3

0

14

Novo Nordisk

21.7

16.6

5

3

15

Bayer

21.2

16.9

4

1

16

Gilead Sciences

20.8

30.0

-6

-9

17

Eli Lilly

20.7

17.2

3

-2

18

Allergan

19.2

18.6

1

-6

19

Shire

19.0

10.9

10

3

20

Boehringer Ingelheim

18.5

13.3

6

-2

Total Top 20

605.0

495.2

3

Other

454.7

272.8

9

TOTAL

1059.7

768.0

6

Rank

Company

1

Novartis

49.8

2

Pfizer

3

Source: EvaluatePharma

* 32% of the 2022 increase in sales to come from orphan drugs (+$95bn);
* Patent expiries could wipe out $194 billion worth of pharma sales during 2016-
2022-potentially signaling a second patent cliff;
* AbbVie's Humira will continue to be the leading product in the USA in 2022, with
sales of $12.0 billion, and also the No. 1 global brand, with sales of $15.9 billion.
Celgene's Revlimid and BMS' Opdivo are expected to be near equals at around
$9.5-9.9 billion, behind Humira.
EvaluatePharma arrives at many of its consensus forecast numbers by collecting them
from equity analysts, while combining historical trend data. The EvaluatePharma report
is available, free, at www.evaluategroup.com/public/reports/EvaluatePharma-WorldPreview-2017.aspx.

HDA honors 2017 DIANA winners, Lifetime Achievement
Nexus winner
Lifetime Achievement Award goes to Michael McBride, Upsher-Smith Labs
At the Healthcare Distribution
Alliance's Business & Leadership
Conference (Phoenix, AZ, June 11-14),
the organization honored its annual
Distribution Industry Awards for Notable
Achievements in Healthcare (DIANA)
Awards for participation in Alliance
a c t i v i t i e s , a n d i n n o v a t i ve p ro d u c t
introductions and trade relations activities
in the industry. The DIANA Partners of
the Year are Lilly USA, LLC (company
with >$500-million sales) and Zydus

Pharmaceuticals USA (<$500 million).
Best New Product Introduction or
Promotion Awards went to Bristol-Myers
Squibb (for its Orencia® ClickJect product);
Alvogen, Inc. (Oseltamivir generic); Reckitt
Benckiser (Mucinex Clear and Cool); and
Broadway Industries (Re-Use-A-Bag Plastic
T-sack). Overall Manufacturer Awards were
granted to LEO Pharma, Allergan, Amneal
Pharma and Reckitt Benckiser.
Concur rently, the HDA Research
Foundation awarded Michael McBride its

annual Nexus Award, which recognizes
leadership activity in the healthcare
products distribution industry. McBride,
currently VP of partner relations at UpsherSmith Laboratories, has had a nearly 30-year
career at Upsher-Smith; he has also taken
on several responsibilities within HDA,
including its Industry Relations Council,
Government Affairs Advisory Committee
and the Professional Development Program.
"For more than 60 years, the Nexus has
recognized extraordinary supply chain

leaders," said John M. Gray, president and
CEO, HDA, and president, HDA Research
Foundation. "HDA and the HDA Research
Foundation are pleased to continue
the proud legacy of the Nexus Award by
recognizing Mike McBride-a consummate
team player and champion for trade
relations-with the distribution industry's
highest honor." HDA Research Foundation
is supported in part by Roche Group/
Genentech and Mylan, Inc.

July | August 2017 Visit our website at www.PharmaceuticalCommerce.com 7


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Table of Contents for the Digital Edition of Pharmaceutical Commerce - July/August 2017

Table of Contents
Pharmaceutical Commerce - July/August 2017 - Cover1
Pharmaceutical Commerce - July/August 2017 - Cover2
Pharmaceutical Commerce - July/August 2017 - Table of Contents
Pharmaceutical Commerce - July/August 2017 - 4
Pharmaceutical Commerce - July/August 2017 - 5
Pharmaceutical Commerce - July/August 2017 - 6
Pharmaceutical Commerce - July/August 2017 - 7
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Pharmaceutical Commerce - July/August 2017 - Cover4
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