Pizza Today - January 2021 - 28

along with whatever else could affect
that trend. COVID significantly
affected the trend this year; nonetheless, it is still a trend. Depending on
how much you were producing in
revenue this time last year, you might
adjust it by a set percentage less. While
on a typical year, you would want to
have a minimum of three percent above
the previous year in line with the average national GDP.
Forecasting is best done on a spreadsheet, applying your point of sales computer's previous sales records.
Additionally, take into account last
year's weather and then use notes of
large events related to the pop or
decline in sales. For example, if there
was an ice storm last year, and the
weather this year looks sunny, you don't
want to budget the same and assume a
lackluster week. Meanwhile, if you had
a massive event last year that won't
occur this year, then that sales pop
should be out of the forecast.
The forecast, in and of itself, doesn't
do anything if not put into practice.
The forecast must get utilized by all
managers to gauge how much to spend
on payroll and food costs. This forecast needs to be a real legitimate sales
expectation, not overly confident or
overly negative. This expected revenue
can't be a hunch because you will
decide how many hours you schedule
based on this figure. Your food ordering
will have to fall in line with that sales
figure as well.
Labor and Schedule Forecasting
The beauty of most modern online
schedulers is they take your forecast
and tell you the exact amount of hours
and labor you can afford to schedule.
My POS integrates with my online
scheduler program, which is a fantastic
asset. I've wanted a highly functioning
integration between a POS and scheduler for the last decade, and it finally
exists. Now I can see what our payroll
number should be and how far from it
we land daily. We can now match up
projections to actuals and avoid a large
variance. This allows us to dependably
hit our labor targets.

Food Cost Purchase Planning
You need to decide your set percentage ideal food cost. Once you know
how much you plan to sell, you'll know
exactly how much you can afford to
spend. Take your budget and break
down how many days of the week you
plan to purchase and what you can
afford for each invoice. Have whoever places the order know what the
number is and where the purchase for
that invoice will land. If you purchase
online, this is simple; if you don't, you'll
need your vendor to tell you the full
invoice cost before you approve the
order. Not purchasing this way will kill
your budget early in the week with an
overspend invoice. Overspend doesn't
always fix itself by less spend in the
next week. Instead, overspend leads to
staff acting wasteful with an excess of
product on hand. Riding the line and
budgeting daily is how you save from
waste and a mismanagement of funds.
Utilities and Misc. Random Costs
Forecasting is a tool for your staff
and your finance supervisor as well,
which is most likely you. Forecast and
plan for large spending events on your
calendar. Events like large insurance
bills, new menu printing, Christmas
gifts, equipment maintenance, and every other random quarterly, bi-yearly or
annual costs you incur. Budget appropriately to avoid a surprise you should
have seen coming because you didn't
appropriately forecast. Use a calendar
in tandem with your spreadsheet to be
aware of all these events ahead of time.
Three Tier Planning
I find it easiest to break the expenses
down into a typical week, a busy heavy
week and a slow week. By going with
tiers of what kind of week we're planning for, staff can plan correctly for
food purchases and labor schedules.
Each year right after Labor Day, we're
flying high with tons of sales and labor
hours, then boom, next week school
is back on, and it's dead. If we don't
predict that and assume each week will
be like the one before, we will blow out

our budget. With three tiers, you'll
find yourself saying things like this to
staff, " This is a heavy week we're coming into, so don't understaff. " OR " I
know last week was bonkers, but this
week is historically one of our slowest, budget for a slow, low tier week. "
This way, YOU decide your fate, lead
the charge, and are proactive instead of
reactive.
A 13-Month Operating Calendar
vs. 12-Month Accounting Calendar
Accounting software like QuickBooks runs on a 12-month calendar.
You need a 12-month fiscal profit and
loss for your accounting, reporting,
and taxes. You'll need to have solid
books in this format, but this is not
what you will or should use for staff.
You also need an operating profit and
loss statement and forecast that runs
off a 13-month calendar. Comparing a
February with four Fridays to a January
with five Fridays will always skew the
metrics. That's why it's essential for
any operational forecasting to be in
a 13-month calendar with 13 sets of
four, seven-day periods. My business
operates with each week starting on
Monday and ending on Sunday. We
base our budgeting for labor and food
cost on these seven-day & four-week
increments. That way, we can compare
apples to apples and not apples to
oranges. To do it on a 12-month calendar is skewed before it even starts.
Doing the proactive work of calendar
planning, event planning and weather
comparison will maintain order. Never
allow yourself to forget planning large
utility expenses either. Demand your
staff abide by the forecast for food
cost and payroll based on a 13-month
operational budget. This will allow
you to create a clean accountant-ready,
12-month calendar you'll be proud of.
If you do all these things, you'll have
your books tight and your head above
water. n
MIKE BAUSCH is the owner of
Andolini's Pizzeria in Tulsa, Oklahoma.

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http://www.PIZZATODAY.COM

Pizza Today - January 2021

Table of Contents for the Digital Edition of Pizza Today - January 2021

Pizza Today - January 2021
Commentary
Digital
Conversation
Mike’s Monthly Tip
Man on the Street
Building Blocks
Tony’s Trending Recipe
Knead to Know
Destinations
Business Forecasting
Cleaning Protocols
Studying the Numbers
Lasagna
Small Market Menus
Chicken Pizzas
COVID-19 Mental Fatigue
New Year’s Business Resolutions
Product Showcase
Pizza Today Yellow Pages
The Marketplace
Expo Spotlight
Pizza Today - January 2021 - CT1
Pizza Today - January 2021 - CT2
Pizza Today - January 2021 - Pizza Today - January 2021
Pizza Today - January 2021 - Cover2
Pizza Today - January 2021 - Commentary
Pizza Today - January 2021 - 4
Pizza Today - January 2021 - 5
Pizza Today - January 2021 - 6
Pizza Today - January 2021 - 7
Pizza Today - January 2021 - Digital
Pizza Today - January 2021 - 9
Pizza Today - January 2021 - Conversation
Pizza Today - January 2021 - 11
Pizza Today - January 2021 - Mike’s Monthly Tip
Pizza Today - January 2021 - 13
Pizza Today - January 2021 - Man on the Street
Pizza Today - January 2021 - 15
Pizza Today - January 2021 - Building Blocks
Pizza Today - January 2021 - 17
Pizza Today - January 2021 - Tony’s Trending Recipe
Pizza Today - January 2021 - 19
Pizza Today - January 2021 - Knead to Know
Pizza Today - January 2021 - 21
Pizza Today - January 2021 - 22
Pizza Today - January 2021 - 23
Pizza Today - January 2021 - Destinations
Pizza Today - January 2021 - 25
Pizza Today - January 2021 - Business Forecasting
Pizza Today - January 2021 - 27
Pizza Today - January 2021 - 28
Pizza Today - January 2021 - 29
Pizza Today - January 2021 - Cleaning Protocols
Pizza Today - January 2021 - 31
Pizza Today - January 2021 - 32
Pizza Today - January 2021 - 33
Pizza Today - January 2021 - Studying the Numbers
Pizza Today - January 2021 - 35
Pizza Today - January 2021 - 36
Pizza Today - January 2021 - 37
Pizza Today - January 2021 - Lasagna
Pizza Today - January 2021 - 39
Pizza Today - January 2021 - Small Market Menus
Pizza Today - January 2021 - 41
Pizza Today - January 2021 - Chicken Pizzas
Pizza Today - January 2021 - 43
Pizza Today - January 2021 - COVID-19 Mental Fatigue
Pizza Today - January 2021 - 45
Pizza Today - January 2021 - New Year’s Business Resolutions
Pizza Today - January 2021 - 47
Pizza Today - January 2021 - 48
Pizza Today - January 2021 - 49
Pizza Today - January 2021 - Product Showcase
Pizza Today - January 2021 - 51
Pizza Today - January 2021 - Pizza Today Yellow Pages
Pizza Today - January 2021 - 53
Pizza Today - January 2021 - 54
Pizza Today - January 2021 - 55
Pizza Today - January 2021 - 56
Pizza Today - January 2021 - 57
Pizza Today - January 2021 - The Marketplace
Pizza Today - January 2021 - 59
Pizza Today - January 2021 - 60
Pizza Today - January 2021 - 61
Pizza Today - January 2021 - 62
Pizza Today - January 2021 - 63
Pizza Today - January 2021 - 64
Pizza Today - January 2021 - Expo Spotlight
Pizza Today - January 2021 - 66
Pizza Today - January 2021 - Cover3
Pizza Today - January 2021 - Cover4
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