Automotive Engineering - May 2020 - 2

EDITORIAL

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EDITORIAL

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A restart into the unknown
The global auto industry is gradually
restarting. But going where?
The COVID-19 crisis is leaving deep
fiscal scars to add to the human toll.
Individuals, businesses and even entire
economies eventually will recover, but
in an auto sector already in the throes
of vast structural change, the COVID
factor could have a much longer-lasting impact. Maybe not all of it has to
be negative.
It's difficult to quantify the outcome on
formerly approved future-model programs as well as on longer-range productdevelopment and engineering investments. Post-COVID
markets will be markedly
changed. Will it be for years,
or will people promptly revert to the rituals that had
long structured their lives
before the pandemic?
Many are logically questioning the future of
Mobility-as-a-Service
(MaaS) - including its
popular ride-hailing component - which was on
shaky foundations before the virus
struck. A variety of surveys, polls and
studies (one "industry" that didn't shut
down) are revealing what you might
have suspected: respondents are more
circumspect about blithely jumping
into an Uber or sharing a vehicle used
by unknown previous customers. Not
coincidentally, GM in April pulled the
plug on its Maven service. The highprofile dockless-scooter industry also
went into freefall in the wake of nationwide "shelter in place" orders coupled with a newfound revulsion for
directly touching public objects.
Will this cause a renaissance for individually-owned vehicles? They are the
very thing many thought-leaders said
was a passe, "Okay, Boomer," aspect of
consumerism - particularly among hip
young denizens of megacities. Uber ads
cleverly thanked everyone for staying at

home, but that can't be its "forever
strategy." People still are going to need
to get around New York and Boston
and Chicago, where public transportation and ride-hail services are fundamental to urban living.
And has the work-from-home paradigm forever changed how employees
of all kind view the notion - and value
- of "going to work?" It's no secret the
pandemic has opened the eyes of many
workers and their employers to the considerable inefficiencies of commuting
every day, merely to sit down at a desk
in a centralized location.
What happens to the auto
industry if 20% of commuting doesn't really ever
come back?
But maybe the most
impactful consequence for
post-COVID automakers
will be on the immediate
planned investments for
engineering. Chief among
these is the cosmic capital
expense of vehicle electrification. Although GM,
Ford, Volkswagen and others have professed their allegiance to electric vehicles, some programs (including GM's
electric GMC Hummer) will be delayed.
Rivian, closely tied to Ford, walked back
on the launch of its high-profile electric
pickup, and Ford itself said the world
will have to wait longer for the company's first battery-powered commercial vehicles. There will be other EVprogram delays and cancellations.
Redirecting engineering energies to
address pressing external influences is
an auto-industry specialty. In decades
past, the compulsory development of
catalytic converters and airbags was
projected to bring ruination. Today's
COVID disruption is no laughing matter,
but the reexamination and restructurings it triggers might ultimately result in
comparable long-term good.
Bill Visnic, Editorial Director

What
happens to
the industry
if 20% of
commuting
doesn't
come back? 

2 May 2020

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AUTOMOTIVE ENGINEERING
Automotive Engineering - May 2020

Table of Contents for the Digital Edition of Automotive Engineering - May 2020
