SAMPE Journal -September/October 2011 - 57

•Can basic science be leveraged into materials development? •Are the natural resource supplies fully adequate? •What about the impact of environmental and safety considerations? • Funding and education – will this be sufficient to supply the necessary technologists? • What about the availability of energy? • Will the social and market needs be communicated effectively to the materials R&D community? • Will the funding model evolve to effect the transition of basic science into products? After much discussion it was agreed that the two major uncertainties were these: • Are the social and market needs effectively communicated throughout the materials development community? • Is the funding model stable and supportive? When examining the impact of these two uncertainties, there became a natural progression expressed over time. Social and market needs are not effectively communicated and funding is unstable and not supportive. When these two critical uncertainties converge, the present result can be succinctly summarized by the words “the valley of death” as technologies falter and development becomes scattered. If the same uncertainties continue over the next five years, we can expect to find an increased bifurcation between the disciplines of science and engineering. Science becomes more academic and engineering is less supported by scientific discovery. Extending the same uncertainties to the twenty-year mark, we find that advanced materials research has become stagnant as engineers struggle to meet imagined needs and the funding dries up as a result of the failure to work to more informed needs. Social and market needs are effectively communicated but funding is unstable and not supportive. Today’s reality under this combination of uncertainties results in small, limited quantities of much-needed materials being developed and manufactured. Given the same uncertainties, in five years we can expect to see that there is an increased failure of relevant material projects due to the breakdown of the funding model. Because budgets are more closely tied to the potential for successful commercialization many worthy and potentially valuable developments will be aborted because the business case is not sufficiently robust. This is a condition that was dubbed “death by stage gate”. Finally, there is an increase in short-term focus and less emphasis on long-term strategic vision. If the same conditions are extended to twenty years, we will find that many useful technologies will simply wither on the vine because the funding model is unstable even though the needs are understood and effectively communicated. Social and market needs are not effectively communicated but funding models are stable and supportive. The impact of the conditions today also results in “the valley of death”. The importance of effective communications of the social and market needs cannot be underestimated. If these conditions prevail in the next five years, we will find an increase in the failure of irrelevant advanced materials businesses as the funding resources are applied to perceived needs that do not necessarily reflect reality. Extended out through 20 years these conditions result in plentiful low cost green materials. While technologies are not materials constrained they may lack market relevance. Social and market needs are effectively communicated and funding models are stable and supportive. Today, these conditions would result in life cycle analysis of commodity materials in support of the marketplace. They would also result in the identification of needed materials substitutions in order to define future development. At the five year mark, these conditions would result in dramatic reduction in commodity materials cost and their reliability. This emphasis would result in enhanced investment in materials substitution development. An expected result is lower cost and better performance across a broad spectrum of consumer goods. Twenty year – At twenty years, this targeted development would yield materials of superior performance to such a degree that we may find ourselves with insufficient applications for these materials.
SAMPE Journal, Volume 47, No. 5, September/October 2011 57

SAMPE Journal -September/October 2011

Table of Contents for the Digital Edition of SAMPE Journal -September/October 2011