Training Industry Magazine - Spring 2022 - 43
Making a causal
argument is really
like running a
science experiment
and testing a
hypothesis.
* The cause must precede the effect.
* There must be a correlation between
the cause and effect.
* Other plausible alternative explanations
need to be ruled out.
The first two are quite straightforward
(as illustrated below). It is the final
requirement, ruling out plausible
alternatives, that frequently stumps
L&D practitioners.
appropriately designed experiment. "
Making a causal argument is really
like running a science experiment and
testing a hypothesis. In learning and
development (L&D), the hypotheses
typically center around whether the
training had the desired results.
Framed as a testable hypothesis, it
could look like this:
" Trained salespeople will see a greater
gain in sales performance than untrained
salespeople. "
At its roots, this is a research question
and requires research principles and a
designed experiment to answer.
The research principles of causal
modeling and experimental and
observational study design are wellentrenched
in many fields (e.g., social
sciences and physical
sciences), but
they are not vigorously practiced in L&D
departments.
Learning
professionals
who are serious about measuring
business impact need to become
familiar with these techniques. Getting
started means understanding the
specific elements that go into making a
credible causal argument.
A causal argument must meet three
fundamental requirements:
THE CAUSE MUST
PRECEDE THE EFFECT
This first requirement is the easiest
to meet. Did the training happen
before the change in performance was
observed? If it did, as in Example 1, then
the customer service training program
might be a contributing factor to the
increase in customer satisfaction.
Obviously, if customer satisfaction went
up before training the customer service
representatives, as in Example 2, then
clearly the training was not the cause.
THERE MUST BE A
CORRELATION BETWEEN
THE CAUSE AND EFFECT
Correlations illustrate how two or more
variables move together. For example,
charting hours of training to sales volume
in a scatterplot helps visualize the
presence (or absence) of a correlation
(Example 3 on page 44).
Example 3 on the top, the two variables
(training hours and sales volume) show
no correlation - they are not moving
together. This indicates that the sales
training did not impact sales volume.
TRAINING INDUSTRY MAGAZINE - SPRING 2022 I WWW.TRAININGINDUSTRY.COM/MAGAZINE
On the other hand, the example on the
bottom shows a positive correlation
between training hours and sales volume
- as training hours increase, so does
sales volume. It is tempting to proudly
pronounce such a correlation as a causal
result of training. But something is missing:
Ruling out all those other factors, such as
tenure, territory and advertising budget.
While a correlation is a requirement for
causation, the well-known mantra holds:
Correlation does not equal causation.
Many fun (and spurious) correlations
illustrate how treating a correlation
as causation can lead to erroneous
conclusions. One of the most famous
| 43
https://conjointly.com/kb/establishing-cause-and-effect/
https://conjointly.com/kb/establishing-cause-and-effect/
https://www.trainingindustry.com/magazine
Training Industry Magazine - Spring 2022
Table of Contents for the Digital Edition of Training Industry Magazine - Spring 2022
Putting the Learner First
Table of Contents
From Change Management to Resiliency
What to Consider When Evaluating EdTech Products
Prioritizing the Employee Experience
Relentless Engagement: Creating a Path for Inclusion Across the Employee Life Cycle
Learning in the Blended Workplace: Design Ideas for a Distributed Workforce
Enable Expert Performance With Adaptive Learning
Taking the Virtual Route to Leadership Training
Culture’s Influence on Global and Remote Learning
The 5 Paradoxes of Leading in a Hybrid Workplace
3 Steps For Successful Remote Onboarding
The Future of Work Requires Development Equity
Making the Leap: Correlation to Causation
L&D’s Role in Developing Company Culture
Better Selling Starts with Better Business Acumen
Corporate Gender Responsibility: A New Paradigm for Engaging and Developing Women
The Burnout Revolution
How Sam's Club Is Training and Retaining Current and Future Leaders
Reclaiming Development
Mindset Strategies for Business Growth in 2022
Pluralsight and Go1 Partner to Address the Growing Global Tech Skills Shortage
Company News
Training Industry Magazine - Spring 2022 - Intro
Training Industry Magazine - Spring 2022 - Cover1
Training Industry Magazine - Spring 2022 - Cover2
Training Industry Magazine - Spring 2022 - CT1
Training Industry Magazine - Spring 2022 - CT2
Training Industry Magazine - Spring 2022 - Putting the Learner First
Training Industry Magazine - Spring 2022 - 4
Training Industry Magazine - Spring 2022 - 5
Training Industry Magazine - Spring 2022 - Table of Contents
Training Industry Magazine - Spring 2022 - 7
Training Industry Magazine - Spring 2022 - 8
Training Industry Magazine - Spring 2022 - From Change Management to Resiliency
Training Industry Magazine - Spring 2022 - 10
Training Industry Magazine - Spring 2022 - What to Consider When Evaluating EdTech Products
Training Industry Magazine - Spring 2022 - 12
Training Industry Magazine - Spring 2022 - Prioritizing the Employee Experience
Training Industry Magazine - Spring 2022 - 14
Training Industry Magazine - Spring 2022 - Relentless Engagement: Creating a Path for Inclusion Across the Employee Life Cycle
Training Industry Magazine - Spring 2022 - Learning in the Blended Workplace: Design Ideas for a Distributed Workforce
Training Industry Magazine - Spring 2022 - 17
Training Industry Magazine - Spring 2022 - 18
Training Industry Magazine - Spring 2022 - 19
Training Industry Magazine - Spring 2022 - 20
Training Industry Magazine - Spring 2022 - Enable Expert Performance With Adaptive Learning
Training Industry Magazine - Spring 2022 - 22
Training Industry Magazine - Spring 2022 - 23
Training Industry Magazine - Spring 2022 - Taking the Virtual Route to Leadership Training
Training Industry Magazine - Spring 2022 - 25
Training Industry Magazine - Spring 2022 - 26
Training Industry Magazine - Spring 2022 - 27
Training Industry Magazine - Spring 2022 - Culture’s Influence on Global and Remote Learning
Training Industry Magazine - Spring 2022 - 29
Training Industry Magazine - Spring 2022 - 30
Training Industry Magazine - Spring 2022 - 31
Training Industry Magazine - Spring 2022 - The 5 Paradoxes of Leading in a Hybrid Workplace
Training Industry Magazine - Spring 2022 - 33
Training Industry Magazine - Spring 2022 - 34
Training Industry Magazine - Spring 2022 - 35
Training Industry Magazine - Spring 2022 - 3 Steps For Successful Remote Onboarding
Training Industry Magazine - Spring 2022 - 37
Training Industry Magazine - Spring 2022 - The Future of Work Requires Development Equity
Training Industry Magazine - Spring 2022 - 39
Training Industry Magazine - Spring 2022 - 40
Training Industry Magazine - Spring 2022 - 41
Training Industry Magazine - Spring 2022 - Making the Leap: Correlation to Causation
Training Industry Magazine - Spring 2022 - 43
Training Industry Magazine - Spring 2022 - 44
Training Industry Magazine - Spring 2022 - 45
Training Industry Magazine - Spring 2022 - L&D’s Role in Developing Company Culture
Training Industry Magazine - Spring 2022 - 47
Training Industry Magazine - Spring 2022 - 48
Training Industry Magazine - Spring 2022 - 49
Training Industry Magazine - Spring 2022 - Better Selling Starts with Better Business Acumen
Training Industry Magazine - Spring 2022 - 51
Training Industry Magazine - Spring 2022 - 52
Training Industry Magazine - Spring 2022 - 53
Training Industry Magazine - Spring 2022 - Corporate Gender Responsibility: A New Paradigm for Engaging and Developing Women
Training Industry Magazine - Spring 2022 - 55
Training Industry Magazine - Spring 2022 - 56
Training Industry Magazine - Spring 2022 - 57
Training Industry Magazine - Spring 2022 - The Burnout Revolution
Training Industry Magazine - Spring 2022 - 59
Training Industry Magazine - Spring 2022 - How Sam's Club Is Training and Retaining Current and Future Leaders
Training Industry Magazine - Spring 2022 - 61
Training Industry Magazine - Spring 2022 - 62
Training Industry Magazine - Spring 2022 - Reclaiming Development
Training Industry Magazine - Spring 2022 - 64
Training Industry Magazine - Spring 2022 - Mindset Strategies for Business Growth in 2022
Training Industry Magazine - Spring 2022 - Pluralsight and Go1 Partner to Address the Growing Global Tech Skills Shortage
Training Industry Magazine - Spring 2022 - Cover3
Training Industry Magazine - Spring 2022 - Cover4
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