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make Section 8 housing vouchers an entitlement so that all eligible low-income
households would receive them (currently only 25 percent of households who
meet the eligibility criteria get assistance)
could build a massive new constituency.
The proposal of the Biden-Sanders unity
task force to automatically enroll low-income Americans in the federal health insurance option should also build a robust
base of support.
But to safeguard laws, policy feedback
needs to begin before opponents have repeal openings. This means that people
will need to see tangible benefits from
Biden's new legislation quickly, ideally before the 2022 midterms. Passed early, labor reforms-such as an increase in the
minimum wage and the creation of a hotline for workers who believe their rights
have been violated-are good proposals
for generating robust, fast-acting support.

unsettle senior citizens who believe they
have an "earned right" to their Medicare
benefits, since the newest beneficiaries
will also be of an older age. If this proposal wins adoption and survives early tests,
it might generate momentum for the subsequent adoption of a Medicare expansion that lowers the eligibility age to 55
or 50.
But to truly minimize blowback, Democrats must actively work to fracture opponents. In the area of climate policy,
for example, Biden is proposing aggressive methane pollution limits for new
and existing oil and gas operations. This
might seem destined to incur the wrath
of most energy companies, but methane emissions vary greatly by type of oil
and gas and across producers, processors, and shippers. Some companies may
then actually support these limits, realizing that they could undercut more
methane-dependent competitors. Rolling the petroleum lobby is a daunting task, but Biden's plan
is a strong attempt to divide and conquer.
Finally, Biden and the
Democrats must help citizens understand how
they benefit from social provisions. As
Suzanne Mettler of Cornell University
argues in The Government-Citizen Disconnect, many American recipients of
generous social policies do not believe
that their assistance comes from government. As a result, they do not think
public policy makes a positive difference
in their lives and are unlikely to defend
government programs. To boost public trust and civic participation, Mettler argues, policymakers should provide information to citizens about the
value of their benefits, use transparent
delivery mechanisms, and pay greater
attention to program marketing. One
of Biden's campaign pledges is to invest
$50 billion in workforce training, including high-quality apprenticeships. Can
this worthy plan be explained to younger Americans and employers as effectively as was the GI Bill? Without a supportive constituency, this initiative may
not survive.

To safeguard Biden's laws,
voters will need to see the
tangible benefits quickly, ideally
before the 2022 midterms.
As Andrew Schrank of Brown University argues, such reforms would quickly
make workers more economically secure
and more inclined to use their political
voice to demand additional protections.
This seems like a more effective strategy for improving labor market outcomes
than mounting a frontal attack on TaftHartley provisions that allow states to
impose right-to-work laws (which Biden
says he wishes to repeal).
Biden and the Democrats should also
try to design policies that minimize political backlash. Doing so will be difficult, given how ideologically extreme the
GOP has become. But laws that don't impose visible taxes or create a perceived
threat to people who rely on existing arrangements are less likely to incur blowback. Biden's proposal to lower the Medicare eligibility age from 65 to 60 (with
the expansion paid for with general revenues), for example, seems well designed
to reduce backlash risks. It is unlikely to
116 September/October 2020

one of these actions, of course, will
eliminate the impact of today's toxic partisan environment. As Ragusa and
Birkhead show, "partisan laws are more
likely to be repealed by future Congresses, irrespective of how many lawmakers voted for the bill in the aggregate." A
law that passes narrowly but with a mix
of Democratic and Republican backing is
more likely to stick than one that passes
with the same number of votes all from
one party.
For their biggest proposals, Democrats
will have no choice but to go it alone. It's
unrealistic to expect that Republicans
will endorse progressive goals like higher taxes on the wealthy, stronger regulations on business, or new social entitlements for the working class. Yet as the
political scientists James M. Curry and
Frances E. Lee have shown, there is still
significant legislation that garners bipartisan support in Congress. The 21st Century Cures Act (designed to help accelerate medical product development), the
First Step Act (criminal justice reform),
and this spring's coronavirus relief packages all had bipartisan backing. A few of
Biden's major initiatives also have some
chance of gaining support from free
market conservatives, including proposals to reduce onerous zoning regulations.
He should pursue these plans, while being
mindful of the political risks.
Deciding how vigorously to court GOP
support, and how to otherwise design
legislation so it proves difficult to repeal,
may seem premature. Joe Biden, after all,
has not yet won a single electoral vote.
As the administrations of Bill Clinton
and Barack Obama demonstrate, however, reform-minded presidents may be able
to pass only a limited amount of legislation before they face backlash in the midterms. Presidential transition teams are
usually so focused on the first 100 days
that they don't consider the political sustainability of legislative priorities. They
ignore this issue at their peril.
Eric Patashnik is Julis-Rabinowitz Professor of
Public Policy and Political Science at the Watson Institute at Brown University. His books
include Reforms at Risk, Unhealthy Politics, and
Putting Trust in the U.S. Budget.

Washington Monthly - September/October 2020

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