Washington Monthly - September/October 2022 - 28

the rest of college, they found that the students tended to
flow to the same alternative majors-like global studies at
UC Santa Barbara or, at Berkeley, from economics to alternatives
such as political economy or environmental policy
and economics. Finally, in an earlier study that focused just
on UC Santa Cruz, they found that students rejected from
the economics major earned an average of $22,000 less per
year by their mid-20s.
Bleemer and Mehta's latest study is still going through
peer review, but their earlier, published Santa Cruz study
uses much the same methodology-a common econometric
technique called a " regression discontinuity design. " " What
they're doing is very good. It's very credible, " Sarah Turner,
a professor of economics at the University of Virginia,
In California, mid-career
business majors earn an
annual median salary of
$71,000, versus $48,000
for intercultural and
international studies, a 2015
Georgetown study reveals.
Nationally, according to
another study, the median
business major can expect
to make $3 million over a
lifetime, versus $2.4 million
for humanities and liberal arts.
who wasn't involved in the study, told me. Turner has studied
how to improve college access for high-achieving lowincome
students, and she hypothesized that factors beyond
grade requirements might also be limiting underrepresented
students' access to popular majors. Those could include a lack
of seats in overfilled prerequisite classes, the " frontloading " of
technical information in introductory classes that can obscure
the richness and diversity of higher-level courses, and insufficient
faculty advising to help those students navigate major
prerequisites. Further research will have to confirm these theories,
Turner said. But she is certain that, whatever the cause
of these disparities might be, it isn't malice. " When departments
introduce these kinds of constraints or requirements,
particularly in response to fiscal constraints, it is not with an
intent of harming a particular group, " she told me. " It is simply,
how do you come up with a strategy to deal with the demand? "
28 September/October 2022
It's even possible to estimate what Gonzalez, the wouldbe
communications major, could have earned if not for the
enrollment policy. According to the U.S. Department of Education's
College Scorecard, the global studies major at UC
Santa Barbara has median earnings three years after graduation
of $44,390. Communications has $54,875. More broadly,
an analysis of earnings data released in 2015 by Anthony
Carnevale, a professor of economics at Georgetown, indicates
that nationally, " two of the top highest paying majors,
STEM and business, are also the most popular majors, accounting
for 46 percent of college graduates. " As graduates'
lives go on, the gap gets bigger. In California, per Carnevale's
data, mid-career business majors earn an annual median salary
of $71,000, compared to $48,000 for intercultural and international
studies. Nationally, according to another, more
recent Carnevale study, the median business major can expect
to make $3 million over a lifetime, versus $2.4 million
for humanities and liberal arts. (The lifetime earnings study
used broader categories for undergraduate majors than the
earlier study did.)
Though it's possible to quantify what, on average, is
lost to rejected students in terms of post-undergraduate
earnings, the loss of their contribution to society is harder
to lay one's hands on. Take Maria Tinoco, who entered UC
Santa Barbara in 2020 intending to major in psychological
and brain sciences in preparation for medical school. Tinoco,
whose family of Mexican immigrants lives in a small, poor,
and rural town in Northern California, attended college virtually
her freshman year because of COVID-19 restrictions.
" We were left basically completely on our own, " she says. " No
one explained the process or even the fact that there were
requirements for majors. " She didn't have a strong internet
connection at home and was forced to either watch blurry
figures jitter on her laptop screen or drive miles away to attend
classes from those coffee shops that would let her sit
down in the middle of a pandemic. Halfway through the year,
she met with a faculty adviser who looked over her course
load and grades. The major requires at least a 2.7 in five different
classes, as well as a 2.0 in three others, and Tinoco was
a long way from the target. The adviser didn't suggest remedial
courses or other options, she says; instead, they told her,
" We wouldn't recommend this path for you. " In other words,
Tinoco says, " Don't even try. "
Tinoco no longer plans to be a doctor. It would technically
be possible for her to fulfill pre-med requirements
with a global studies major-which is where she ended up-
but she can't afford to spend the extra time and money after
wasting so much already. Instead, she's graduating early
with the help of credits she earned in high school. She does
not have career plans lined up. Like Gonzalez, Tinoco was
a high achiever in high school, doing everything she could
to prepare for college as a first-generation student-in her
case, by taking classes at a local community college. Yet despite
her best efforts, she found herself behind at the start.
" For most of us, " she says, referring to the band of first
Washington Monthly - September/October 2022

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