HRO Today May 2020 - 43

HRO Today Research
United States and Canada
In the U.S., job creation remained robust, with 184,000
jobs created on average per month in the fourth quarter.
In December, the share of women in the workforce
outnumbered men for the first time since The Great
Recession (2007-2009). Consumer optimism remained
relatively high, as reflected in the quarterly average of
the Consumer Confidence Index, which currently stands
at 126.6. However, wages increased by only 2.9 percent
year-over-year in December, which is the lowest growth
rate since July of 2018, according to the Bureau of Labor
Statistics.
In the fourth quarter, the U.S. unemployment rate
dropped to 3.5 percent in 2019, a 0.4 percent decrease
from 2018. Historically, unemployment rates at 5.0
percent or lower are considered by many economists to
be at or near full employment.
In 2019, all of the major stock indices increased
substantially. The Dow Jones industrials increased by
22.3 percent, the S&P 500 increased by 28.9 percent,
and the Nasdaq Composite rose by 35.2 percent. Despite
the ongoing trade war between U.S. and China, stocks
surged on high consumer sentiment and the Federal
Reserve cutting interest rates, according to CNBC.
The Canadian unemployment rate in the fourth quarter
of 2019 remained consistent with the prior year at 5.6
percent. The Canadian economy ended on a weak note
following a rail strike, weakening demand, and a rupture
in the Keystone pipeline. In response, the National Bank
of Canada reports the Canadian government proposed
legislation to lower taxes for nearly 20 million people in
order to boost growth and pay off record high household
debt.
Asia Pacific (APAC)
According to FocusEconomics, growth in the East and
South Asia (ESA) region slowed in 2019 compared to
2018 and is expected to slow further still in 2020. Trade
tensions rattled most of the export-driven markets,
causing growth to slump for the year. However, in
December, a " Phase One " trade negotiation agreement
between the United States and China was reached,
stabilizing GDP growth in the fourth quarter. This
agreement, along with a dovish stance on monetary
policy taken by central banks, should help cushion the
economic slowdown in 2020.
Key Takeaways
* Despite the global unemployment rate
remaining low in 2019, global economic growth
was weaker compared to recent years at only
2.4 percent. Downward pressures from global
trade wars and weak investment growth
dampened growth for the year.
* The global labor market remains tight, with
around half (26) of the 49 countries analyzed
in this report showing unemployment levels of
5.0 percent or less, which is considered by many
economists as at or near full employment.
* In the fourth quarter, 27 of the 49 countries
analyzed in this report announced decreases in
national unemployment rates since the fourth
quarter of 2018, while 11 reported increases.
The remaining 11 were unchanged.
* In the United States, stocks had a remarkable
year in 2019, recording the largest yearly gain
since 2013. The Nasdaq Composite increased
35.2 percent while the Dow rose 22.3 percent
and the S&P 500 rose 28.9 percent.
China has by far the largest economy in the region with
a GDP of $13.4 trillion, and is nearly three times larger
than the second biggest economy in the region, Japan.
Industrial production in December was particularly
strong, growing by 6.9 percent on a year-over-year basis,
the largest year-over-year increase since February of 2019,
according to FocusEconomics. The unemployment rate in
China decreased by 0.2 percent since 2018 to 3.6 percent.
Europe, the Middle East, and Africa (EMEA)
The EMEA region covers three continents and includes
116 different countries which vary greatly in GDP and
population. Twenty-seven countries in EMEA are tracked
in this quarterly analysis. There were mostly positive
results in the quarter, with unemployment rates in the
overall EMEA region declining year-over-year in 18 of
the 27 countries. The country with the biggest decline
in unemployment rate on a year-over-year basis was
Greece, where the unemployment rate declined by 2.0
MAY 2020
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[43]
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HRO Today May 2020

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