Automotive Engineering - June 2021 - 5

SUPPLIER EYE
Making the BEV commitment
T
he past 18 months have been a headshaker
for those of us observing the industry.
A pandemic spreads, semiconductors
vanish, and now a headlong
charge by virtually every OEM and major Tier 1
into electric propulsion.
Make that battery-electric propulsion. Sure,
hybrids - a far more complex architecture, still
with tailpipe emissions - will play a role in the
short-to-mid-term. But anyone who is still doubting
the industry's intent and long-term commitment
to BEVs need look no further than President
Biden's comment as he viewed the Ford F-150
Lightning BEV in May: " The future is electric. "
Given the level of BEV-focused investment by
OEMs, suppliers and policymakers in the major
markets of North America, Europe and Asia, it
certainly points in that direction. The old saying,
" When it comes to breakfast, the chicken is involved...but
the pig is committed " comes to
mind. Well, the auto industry is now the pig.
The last 25 years have seen the industry increasingly
focus attention on BEVs, albeit measured.
Efforts such as GM's EV-1, the Ford Focus
EV and Nissan Leaf showed that OEMs understood
the promise of BEVs, though with mitigated
risk. Low-capacity production facilities
(usually less than 50,000 units per year), utilizing
shunt lines spurred off their primary ICE vehicle
lines, showed that OEMs and their suppliers
wanted to prioritize the hydrocarbon-fueled
products that supported their bottom lines.
And while the industry and consumers treated
the early BEVs as grand experiments, Toyota
became synonymous with Prius and put electrified
mobility on the map.
Then came Tesla, proving that there is a marMichael
Robinet
Executive Director
IHS Markit
michael.robinet
@ihsmarkit.com
OEMs have
determined
that in most
cases, it is time
to commit to
the BEV future
- altering
operations,
development,
the supply base.
ket to support sustained mass-production of
BEVs. Traditional OEMs watched Elon Musk capture
more and more luxury market share,
prompting them to commit significant (more
than 200,000 units per year) capacity to an EV
future. Witness the transformation of GM's
Detroit-Hamtramck, Spring Hill, CAMI and
Ramos Arizpe plants, and Ford designating its
Oakville facility for BEV output later this decade.
OEMs have determined that in most cases, it
is time to commit to the BEV future - altering
operations, development, the supply base, dealers
and in the end, trusting their loyal customers
to a BEV future.
While in some respects this risk is calculated
- prodded by regulatory pressures in China
and the European Union - the shift in North
America still is bold.
The heads of many of my supplier contacts
continue to spin. How broadly and deeply
should we commit, they wonder? The investment
decisions are tougher for companies
whose product portfolios are geared toward
combustion engines and traditional drivelines.
This column has stressed the need for the
supply base to pivot to accommodate the BEV
future. IHS Markit's recent BEV production forecast
outlines a quadrupling of BEV
output from 2019 to 2025, and a doubling
from 2025 to 2030 as products
move beyond the performance and
luxury segments.
The next five years are critical, particularly
in building a robust supply
chain and support infrastructure, and in
convincing consumers that EVs are real.
Because for the industry, they are.
Steady growth into significant volumes is
expected for North American light-duty EV
production, according to IHS Markit.
AUTOMOTIVE ENGINEERING
June 2021 5
IHS MARKIT
Automotive Engineering - June 2021

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