Automotive Engineering - October 2021 - 5

SUPPLIER EYE
Dealing with the BEV 'concavity'
H
indsight is always 20-20. Over the last
30+ years observing the light vehicle
business, I've seen scores of technologies
with significant hype and promise
- only to flame out or experience a flatter implementation
curve. These technologies gain the
attention of executives and board members ensuring
that their companies are paying close
attention to the impact of these and are taking
appropriate actions.
A couple of examples come to mind. Late in
the 1990s, Honda was displaying light vehicle
diesels for its passenger cars - destined for the
European market, though with the promise of
possible deployment in other major regions. It
seemed odd, one of the world's leaders in gasoline
propulsion touting a diesel? While diesel
engine share grew significantly in Europe and
drove strong penetration for certain vocations in
North America and other sectors - diesel never
became the light vehicle fuel of choice. In the
end, diesels have a role in today's industry - albeit
nowhere near the mass global adoption
once envisaged by many.
Other innovations touted lightweighting and
convenience as key drivers. Destined for greatness
included plastic exhaust systems, aluminum
brake rotors, rearward-facing passenger
seats in vans and 100% penetration of outer
aluminum body panels for all segments - not
just luxury or performance applications. Suffice
to say, the industry thought differently. Whether
it be regulations, cost, lack of viable alternatives
or incumbent materials fighting back - many
trends have slowed, stalled or been relegated to
the back burner.
Why the history lesson? Battery electric vehicle
(BEV) penetration will rise through this
decade though not every vehicle will reach 100%
capacity utilization out of the gate. With a new
propulsion format, the scale of vehicle electrification
investment is significant - not every OEM
will be wildly successful. Additionally, as virtually
every OEM in North America launches numerous
BEV nameplates through this decade - volume
per nameplate will decline initially.
As with any technology, there is an initial rush
Michael Robinet
Executive Director,
IHS Markit
SAE Foundation
Trustee
michael.robinet
@ihsmarkit.com
As virtually
every OEM in
North America
launches
numerous BEV
nameplates
through
this decade,
volume per
nameplate will
decline initially.
of new investment and market attention. The
FOMO (Fear of Missing Out) of not being part of
the BEV train is critical for OEMs and suppliers
alike. Through late this decade in North America, I
expect BEV volume per nameplate to decline -
call it the BEV Concavity - until consumer acceptance
increases and OEMs slowly eliminate ICE
versions of key offerings into the next decade.
The lesson here is that any new technology
will experience growing pains and volume setbacks.
BEVs will be no different, though given
the political, regulatory and production energy
behind its implementation in the major markets,
volume per nameplate will eventually turn a corner
- it's a case of when, not if.
Switching gears here - a note about the good
work of the SAE Foundation, its staff and trustees
on a global scale. The scope of change
within the mobility and other industries underscores
how critical promoting STEM (Science,
Technology, Engineering and Mathematics) is
within our primary, secondary and post-secondary
education systems. Partnering with educators,
suppliers, OEMs and others is key to
early and sustained engagement by students.
Yours truly is a newly-minted SAE Foundation
Trustee - working with a larger team to support
the various activities to promote STEM education.
If you have any questions or want to donate
time, funds and/or resources, go to www.
saefoundation.org.
AUTOMOTIVE ENGINEERING
October 2021 5
http://www.saefoundation.org

Automotive Engineering - October 2021

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