SAE Update - August 2021 - 15

FOCUS:
ELECTRIFIED VEHICLES
generation in 2020, mainly hydroelectricity and
wind, EIA).
The industry transition to battery electric vehicles
(BEVs) is proceeding at an accelerating pace, albeit
from low levels of penetration (roughly 3% of new LD
vehicle sales in 2020). However, an emerging issue
that has the potential to significantly disrupt this
progress is the sourcing and supply of a range of
critical materials and minerals, used primarily for
batteries, power electronics, and motors. The US has
a limited domestic supply of a wide range of these
materials, including lithium, cobalt, nickel, germanium,
manganese, silicon, graphite, the platinum group
metals, and rare earth elements (REEs)-all essential
for EV manufacturing. While many of these materials
are mined and can be sourced from a wide range of
locations worldwide, practically all routes for their
beneficiation and upgrading lie abroad. Essentially,
the US is now reliant on foreign sources and supplies
of critical materials and components that it does not
control in order to meet its own promised GHG
emissions reduction and decarbonization goals. The
current US administration is well aware of these
commodity sourcing issues and has started to
respond accordingly (see, for example, the
Department of Interior's List of Critical Minerals from
2018, and the National Blueprint for Lithium Batteries
2021-2030 of the Department of Energy). While
reusing and recycling used battery packs will be an
essential industry practice, only after a decade or so
of appreciable EV sales will recycling volumes have a
significant impact on raw materials availability.
New LD vehicle sales in the US are currently around
17 million per year, and assuming an average 90 kWh
battery pack per vehicle implies a total domestic
battery (cell) production requirement of 1,530 GWh
UPDATE
per year. Currently, cell
production facilities are each of
the order of 30-35 GWh/yr,
which implies that roughly 45-50
such battery production facilities
will be required to meet future
US LD vehicle production
targets. There are currently 4
such facilities in operation in the
US today, and thus a 10x increase
in cell production volume is
required before all LD vehicle
sales can be fully electric-not
including the use of batteries in
MD or HD BEVs or in stationary
energy storage to ensure grid
resiliency, for example.
The transition to a substantial
BEV fleet will also require a
significant build-out of the
electrical grid, at both the highvoltage
transmission and local
low-voltage distribution levels-
but the sheer number of charge
points (EVSEs), public or private,
required to adequately recharge
the fleet on a daily basis is a
matter of uncertainty. This issue
is best considered in terms of
miles of range provided per
EVSE unit per day. Level 2
recharging in private homes
allows about 40 miles of vehicle
range added per hour of
charging (at ~300 Wh/mile
vehicle energy consumption at
August 2021
15
SAE Update - August 2021

Table of Contents for the Digital Edition of SAE Update - August 2021
