Automotive Engineering - May 2022 - 2

EDITORIAL
EDITORIAL
Bill Visnic
Editorial Director
Bill.Visnic@sae.org
Reconsidering hybrids
After conversations I've had with powertrain
engineering executives during
the 2022 SAE WCX World Congress,
and in reading our reports on the panel
discussions, I can conclude two things.
First, mobility-industry planning currently
faces more uncertainty than at
any period in recent memory. It's not a
good time to bet on EV sales forecasts
and ICE-end dates that seemed unrealistic
even before Covid, the chip crisis,
and Putin's war of obliteration.
Unforeseen externalities have a way of
altering outlooks.
Secondly, hybrid-electric
propulsion will play a significant
role in global vehicle
electrification and
CO2 reduction in the next
decade. I'm confident of
that. And much of the industry
seems to agree.
One-quarter of Toyota's vehicle sales
in 2021 were electrified vehicles, most
of them hybrids. The company that
created the modern hybrid and made
them aspirational, profitable, and reliable
is assembling a pragmatic portfolio-hybrid-
and plug-in hybrid vehicles,
BEVs, and fuel-cell EVs. " We don't
believe a one-size-fits-all approach will
work, " Dante Boutell, VP of powertrain
design for Toyota North America, told
the SAE audience.
Honda is expanding standard-hybrid
offerings across its lineup as it continues
fuel-cell and EV collaborations
with GM. Citing these uncertain times,
the CEO of BMW and CTO of Mercedes
each recently warned that overcommitting
on EVs could leave them vulnerable
in vehicle sales and in the procurement
and cost of strategic raw
materials. " When you look at the technology
coming out, the EV push, we
must be careful because at the same
time, you increase dependency on very
few countries, " asserted BMW boss
Oliver Zipse at a media gathering during
the New York auto show.
And China? It is experiencing a revival
2 May 2022
China is
having a
hybrid-tech
revival.
of hybrid technology, according to a
recent analysis by engineering consultants
FEV. China's best-selling " new
energy vehicle " is a series-hybrid SUV
with a 40-kWh battery. Admittedly,
having both hybrids and BEVs within a
single vehicle segment may require
OEMs to adopt a two-platform strategy
to optimize each powertrain's benefits.
That approach is counter to what
EV advocates say is a key advantage of
battery-electrics: reduced build complexity
and bill-of-material. But FEV,
with its intimate knowledge
of tech trends and
developments, anticipates
OEMs will need " a significant
share " of hybridelectric
vehicles, in addition
to BEVs, to comply
with 2030 EU CO2 laws.
Range between fill-ups
(or charges) is a major selling point for
hybrids. They are vastly superior to
even the priciest EVs in this metric.
Ford's new $21,000 Maverick hybrid
can deliver over 500 miles of driving
range, beating Cadillac's $59,000 Lyriq
EV and Tesla's $40,000 Model Y each
by about 200 miles. There's also the
benefit of having a " heat engine " for
complete cabin warming, regardless of
ambient temperature and duty cycle.
Hybrids ultimately may only be a
" bridge " to an all-EV future, but OEMs
who have fully committed to EVs in the
short term may end up regretting their
decisions. While traditional ICEs are
heading for a sundown, hybridized
combustion engines will power perhaps
one third of new vehicles for at
least the next decade, and millions beyond
it. " Let's just say that by [2030],
it's a 50/50 mix of ICE and BEV, " Dave
Filipe, VP of hardware modules at
Ford, postulated to the SAE WCX audience.
" But that 50-percent ICE is going
to be heavily influenced by the hybrids. "
And Ford will have more of
them, he noted.
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AUTOMOTIVE ENGINEERING
Automotive Engineering - May 2022

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