SAE Update - April 2023 - 28

ENGINEERING EVENTS
Decarbonizing road transport: why
technology (alone) won't save the planet
APRIL 18-20, 2023
DETROIT
TM
includes scientists from oil companies such
as Shell, BP, and Saudi Aramco; after
translating from German the meaning of
" FVV Forschungsvereinigung
Verbrennungskraftmaschinen " (which is
" Research Association for Combustion
Engines " ); and finally after looking at my bio
( " internal combustion engine professor since
1998 " ). You may be tempted to conclude
that it was a biased study and that this is a
biased article. But wait a minute, please!
We all know that it's difficult to make
predictions, and we all agree that several
assumptions in this kind of study could be
questionable. But I would like to recall your
attention on a crucial point: It's not only that
blindly relying on a single technology (in
other words, going " all in " on road transport
electrification) is insufficient to achieve our
decarbonization goals. It's also the case that
even exploiting the full portfolio of options
we could develop, and assuming we could
fully decarbonize the grid at an
unprecedented pace, would still not be
enough to curb the global warming trend.
So what could we do, if even assuming
we will put an extraordinary concentration
of efforts in developing new technologies
and infrastructures, and that these efforts
will be supported by the right policies all
over the world? Are we doomed to fail?
The only possibility is to couple
technologies and policies development with
the unavoidable behavioral changes we
must adopt. We cannot sustain motorization
rates of about 0.9 vehicles per capita, as
28 April 2023
currently in U.S., or even slightly lower
(about 0.7) as in several EU countries. Nor
we can sustain the tremendous increase in
motorization rates that are expected in
developing countries, especially considering
that by 2050, more than two-thirds of the
world population (about 7 billion people)
will live in densely populated urban areas.
We will need more efficient, equitable, and
accessible public transportation services,
moving progressively away from owing a
personal car - especially in urban areas,
where most of the population will
concentrate in the future - and towards
other mobility models. These include car
sharing, carpooling, autonomous taxis and
buses, and mobility as a service (MAAS), the
widespread diffusion of which is expected to
be enhanced by the future diffusion of
autonomous and connected vehicles.
In conclusion, I believe that we, as
automotive engineers, should certainly
continue dedicating all our efforts and
energies to technological development for
sustainable mobility. But at the same time,
we should give up our technological hubris
and be aware that without the right policies
and the right behaviors, technology alone
will not save us. n
ABOUT THE AUTHOr
SAE Fellow (2015) Federico Millo is full professor at
Politecnico di Torino, Italy. He is co-organizer of the WCX
2023 panel session " Decarbonization Pathways and
Progress - Electrification, Fuel Cells ... What about
Hydrogen ICE and E-fuels? "
UPDATE

https://wcx.sae.org/program/electric-propulsion/session?EVT_NAME=PFL199&GROUP_CD=TSESS&SCHED_NUM=344856&tab=sessionDetails&REQUEST_TYPE=SESSION_DETAILS https://wcx.sae.org/program/electric-propulsion/session?EVT_NAME=PFL199&GROUP_CD=TSESS&SCHED_NUM=344856&tab=sessionDetails&REQUEST_TYPE=SESSION_DETAILS https://wcx.sae.org/program/electric-propulsion/session?EVT_NAME=PFL199&GROUP_CD=TSESS&SCHED_NUM=344856&tab=sessionDetails&REQUEST_TYPE=SESSION_DETAILS

SAE Update - April 2023

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