Baking & Snack - August 2014 - 12

EDITORIAL STAFF
Editor
Executive Editor
Managing Editor

Remarkable per capita flour data

When the CEO of one of the nation's largest food companies, W. Anthony Vernon
of Kraft Foods Group Inc., cites "a sluggish consumer environment," as he did in a
recent quarterly report, heads are likely to nod agreement across major sectors of
the food industry. Mr. Vernon specifically noted that industrywide consumption
has lagged population growth for the past year or longer and that he expects "unit
growth to remain below population growth in the near term."
Such an outlook, which may only be called gloomy, differs remarkably from the
prospect painted by the annual calculations of wheat flour disappearance by the
Economic Research Service (ERS) of the US Department of Agriculture. These
data, the issuance of which are eagerly anticipated in grain-based foods, show flour
consumption gaining in line with population, contrasting with Mr. Vernon's perspective on food business.
There is no better measure of the relationship between product consumption and
population than per capita calculations. The recent ERS data actually show an increase between 2012 and 2013 as per capita flour disappearance rose to 134.7 lbs
from 134.4 the previous year
Of course, the overall flour total varied among industry sectors. Without exact
figures, it is probably correct to assume that flour consumption grew enough in variety, specialty and artisan products to offset the slack in sliced white bread. A rebound in foodservice sectors that emphasize sandwiches is also credited with boosting the performance of flour-based foods. Considering the health-related scares
meant to exert a negative influence, this showing might be seen as exceptional.
As tempting as it may be to focus only on the past three years where per capita
consumption gained annually, preferred attention should be given to a truly astounding difference from the past - a dozen years when per capita consumption
of wheat flour held within a narrow enough range so that the measure could be
described as holding its own.
Such an achievement may not be noted without several warnings. If the industry now depends on population to maintain and increase demand,
it should recognize that these trends are downward. Of course,
new immigration rules could have a tremendous impact, as well
as new attitudes toward family size. Another warning is the
need to confront unwarranted and often quack-like attacks
on the quality of foods made with wheat flour. Without a
focused effort that succeeds in influencing consumers,
the steadiness of per capita consumption in the past dozen years will become only a dream rather than a base for
building future growth.
- Morton Sosland
msosland@sosland.com

12 Baking & Snack August 2014 / www.bakingandsnack.com

Senior Editor

Dan Malovany
dmalovany@sosland.com
Laurie Gorton
lgorton@sosland.com
Joanie Spencer
jspencer@sosland.com
Charlotte Atchley
catchley@sosland.com

Ryan Atkinson
ratkinson@sosland.com
Contributing Editors:
Donna Berry
donnaberry@dairy-food.com
Theresa Cogswell
bakercogs@sbcglobal.net
Jim Kline
jkline@theensolgroup.com
Joe Stout
joe.stout@cf-san.com
Assistant Editor

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Baking & Snack - August 2014

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