IBIE - 2016 Special Edition & Show Preview - (Page 101)

INGREDIENT TRENDS Favorable Forecast Although ingredient commodity markets constantly fluctuate, wheat, shortening, corn meal, eggs and dairy products may see positive trends in 2016 and 2017. by Jay Sjerven, Milling & Baking News M Most food ingredient prices have been much lower in recent months than when bakers last gathered at IBIE in the fall of 2013. And based on recently released US Department of Agriculture (USDA) supply-and-demand forecasts for the coming year, the price outlook remains mostly favorable. Bakers couldn't help but be pleased with flour prices holding for the past several months at the lowest levels in years. During the 2013 IBIE, bread flour prices were $6 a cwt higher than what they were in mid-May 2016. Barring a severe weather-related crop reduction in the US or other major wheat-producing nations, wheat and flour prices may remain relatively low for the entire 2016-17 crop year (June 1-May 31). Certainly, USDA, in its initial US and world wheat supply-and-demand projections for 2016-17 as contained in its May World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates report, suggested wheat prices may go lower during that time. USDA forecast the average farm price of wheat in 2016-17 to fall within a range of $3.70 to $4.50 a bu compared with a forecast $4.90 a bu in 2015-16. USDA noted the midpoint of the projected 2016-17 range, $4.10 a bu, would be the lowest price paid to farmers for their wheat in 11 years. While USDA predicted domestic wheat production to drop in 2016 from a year earlier, the department forecast wheat supplies and ending stocks for 2016-17 to increase from 2015-16. The department projected the carryover of wheat on June 1, 2017, at a whopping 1,029 million bu, up 51 million bu, or 5%, from 978 million bu as estimated for 2016. If the forecast is realized, the 2017 wheat carryover would be the largest since 1988. The 2016 wheat crop was forecast at 1,998 million bu, down 3%, from 2,052 million bu in 2015. It would be the smallest crop since 2011. The total US wheat supply in 2016-17 was predicted at 3,106 million bu, up 6%, from an estimated 2,924 million bu in 2015-16. It would be the largest US wheat supply since 3,119 million bu in 2012-13. Wheat disappearance in the US in 2016-17 was projected at 2,077 million bu, up 131 million bu from the forecast for 2015-16, with domestic wheat use pegged at 1,202 million bu, up 36 million bu from 2015-16, and wheat exports at 875 million bu, up 95 million bu from the estimate for 2015-16. Domestic food use of wheat in 2016-17 was expected at a record 963 million bu, up 3 million bu from the estimate for 2015-16, the current record. While the all-wheat outlook was favorable, bakers, particularly soft flour users, were keenly aware of the effect of wheat quality on pricing. Back-to-back soft red winter wheat crops with below-average quality have kept IBIE 2016 / PreShow Guide / 101

Table of Contents for the Digital Edition of IBIE - 2016 Special Edition & Show Preview

IBIE - 2016 Special Edition & Show Preview
Table of Contents
IBIE PERSPECTIVE - Challenges Amid Attractive Conditions
STATE OF THE INDUSTRY - Well Positioned for Growth
Fuel for the future
PARADE OF PROGRESS - Bakers and exhibitors say they go to IBIE because …It's About the Future
EQUIPMENT TRENDS SURVEY - Good Vibrations
IBIE TECH - Must-have Mobile
ENGINEERING ROUNDTABLE - Putting it on Automatic
ABA PERSPECTIVE - Election 2016: The Stretch Run
Getting the Message Out
‘Premiumization’ opportunities abound
B&CMA, ABA - Pathway to the Future
Cookie-cracker education at IBIE
FSMA & THE BAKERY - Proof of Validation
SANITATION & SAFETY - Signs of the Times
How to collaborate, a PMMI protocol
PACKAGING - One-stop Shop
COLD STORAGE LOGISTICS - Securing Smooth Sailing
INGREDIENT CHOICES - The Big Questions
Go ahead, eat, it’s safe
TAX RELIEF - Go Ahead, Spend
SOCIAL MEDIA - Plugged into Consumers
INGREDIENT TRENDS - Favorable Forecast
INGREDIENT TRENDS: FATS & OILS - Deadline: 2018
WORKFORCE GAP - A New Paradigm
BREAD TRENDS - I Love Bread
bake - Special Edition
Retail Perspective - Road to Recovery
Retail Perspective: Equipment - Innovations Abound
Retail Perspective: Cake - Standing out from the crowd
Retail Perspective: Education - School in session
A World of Opportunity
INTERNATIONAL INSIGHT: BAKED FOODS - Global Growth: It's Not Easy
ALL-AMERICAN TAILGATE - Kickoff IBIE 2016
VEGAS GUIDE - Something for everyone
Off the beaten path
Ad Index

IBIE - 2016 Special Edition & Show Preview