Milling & Baking News - February 26, 2008 - 7

Editorial

Great year in flour must be protected

t's hard, if not impossible, to find a single fact in
It will be another month or so before the Economic
the broad array of data on flour production by Research Service makes its annual determination of
U.S. mills in 2007 that does not please, yes even domestic flour consumption. Preliminary calculatitillate. After two years of agonizingly slow recovery tions indicate that while milling enjoyed some pickfrom the gloom of successive years of sharp falls in up in flour exports, once again the output increase
production and consumption, 2007 proved to be the reflects increased domestic consumption. Using the
breakout that even the greatest optimists in grain- quarterly flour output data from the Bureau of the
based foods could only have hoped for. As reviewed Census and preliminary estimates on exports and
in this issue, production of wheat flour by U.S. mills imports, it seems likely that domestic disappearance
in the past year posted one of the largest annual in- may have scored one of the largest annual gains ever
creases ever recorded, boosting the aggregate to near posted during 2007. The year's increase appears to
the record set in 2000. Accompanying this startlingly be near 14 million hundredweights, which would
good performance in production
boost total disappearance to beMemories are still fresh as
are four other highly positive
tween 417 million and 418 milmeasures - a likely record in
lion and would raise per capita
to how quickly and terribly
flour consumption, a rebound in
to 138 pounds, up a welcome
positive consumption trends
per capita use, the best running
four pounds.
may be reversed.
time for a year in a long while
While it may appear overly
and a measurable increase in flour extraction.
zealous to look for data more pleasing than these figIn declaring that the news could hardly be better, it ures, mill running time, estimated at 88.9 per cent of
is important to recall the painful period that preceded six-day capacity brought the industry closer to the 90
last year. Yes, output increased in both 2005 and 2006, per cent "ideal" than had been experienced in some
but those small gains provided comfort only because time. Similarly important was the rise in the averthey offered hope that precipitous declines had end- age flour extraction rate to measure the percentage of
ed. The similarly small upturns in total consumption flour obtained from wheat to 75.6 per cent, one of the
only kept pace with growth in population, leaving per highest of the recent era.
capita use at the nadir of 134 pounds. That pain is best
At this stage in examining the data on flour prodefined by noting that annual flour output dropped duction in 2007, it is impossible to identify the asfrom 421 million hundredweights in 2000 to 394 mil- pects of grain-based foods that account for this surge
lion four years later, and that per capita plunged from in output and consumption. Data in this issue on
its half-century peak of 147 pounds.
wholesale bread business for the year, indicating a
The 2007 flour output of 417,574,000 hundred- decrease of 3 per cent in unit sales, would certainly
weights is only about three days of grind below the show where expansion did not occur. Once the posipeak reached in 2000. It is important to remember tives are accounted for, grain-based foods has no
that the latter year marked the culmination of two more important task than to undertake steps aimed
decades of phenomenal growth. The gains in the at maintaining the growth rate of 2007. Memories
1980s and 1990s were driven entirely by rebounds are still fresh as to how quickly and terribly posiin consumption. From the post-World War II low tive consumption trends may be reversed. It would
of 110 pounds, per capita use had rebounded to be very foolish to believe that the 2007 rebound will
147 pounds in an unprecedented reversal of con- continue or even hold without powerful efforts by
sumer attitudes unique to grain-based foods.
the entire industry. MBN
MORTON SOSLAND, EDITOR-IN-CHIEF
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