Milling & Baking News - March 25, 2008 - 57

Ingredient Week

 Cash Wheat

HARD WINTER. Premiums on hard red
winter wheat in Kansas City dropped
5@50c a bu last week, with 50c losses applying to wheat with protein from 13%
through 13.4%. The narrowest losses
were posted at the bottom and top ends
of the protein scale. Heavy wheat offers
early in the week encountered limited
mill demand and pressured premiums.
Wheat shippers sought to push cars into
the market before the holiday break, but
mill pipelines were mostly filled.
The hard winter basis softened even in
the face of a steady cash wheat market
in Minneapolis. But for many traditional
spring wheat flour buyers, the switch to
flour milled from hard winter wheat or
to blends with an increased percentage
of hard winter wheat at the expense of
spring wheat was accomplished.
Gulf export bids on 11.5%-protein
hard red winter wheat for March-May
were withdrawn. June bids were 70c
over K.C. July.
Tumbling wheat futures and a struggling cash basis discouraged farmer
sales of whatever 2007 crop hard winter
wheat they might still own.
The U.S. Department of Agriculture
rated the Kansas wheat crop as of March
16 at 42% good to excellent (41% the
previous week and 70% last year), 35%
fair (37% and 24%) and 23% poor to very
poor (22% and 6%). The Kansas crop was
4% jointed compared with 8% last year
and 5% as the recent five-year average
for the date. Four per cent of the Kansas
crop was lost to winterkill. Texas wheat
was rated 16% good to excellent, 34%
fair and 50% poor to very poor. Three
per cent of the Texas crop was headed,
the same as a year ago and up from 1%
as the recent five-year average. "Most of
the state received much-needed rainfall
after being faced with dry conditions for

No. 1 hard winter
Basis Kansas City May, cents per bu
March 20 - Change from -
Premium March 14 March 7
Ordinary 30@ 60
-5 @ -5 -25 @ -10
11%
60@ 75
-5 @ -5
-
11.2%
65@ 80
-5 @ -5
-
11.4%
70@ 85
-5 @ -5
-5 @ -5
11.6%
75@ 90
-5 @ -5
-5 @ -5
11.8%
90@ 105 -10 @ -10 -5 @ -5
12%
107@ 122 -10 @ -10 +2 @ +2
12.2% 115@ 130 -15 @ -15 -10 @ -10
12.4% 135@ 150 -15 @ -15 -10 @ -10
12.6% 145@ 160 -15 @ -15 -10 @ -10
12.8% 165@ 180 -25 @ -25 -10 @ -10
13%
175@ 190 -50 @ -50 -50 @ -50
13.2% 195@ 210 -50 @ -50 -50 @ -50
13.4% 215@ 230 -50 @ -50 -50 @ -50
13.6% 275@ 290 -10 @ -10 -10 @ -10
13.8% 295@ 310 -10 @ -10 -10 @ -10
14%
350@ 365 -10 @ -10 -10 @ -10
bakingbusiness.com / world-grain.com

Year
ago
39 @ 49
55 @ 65
55 @ 65
55 @ 65
55 @ 65
59 @ 69
61 @ 71
61 @ 71
61 @ 71
61 @ 71
65 @ 75
65 @ 75
65 @ 75
65 @ 75
65 @ 75
59 @ 69
58 @ 68

the last few weeks," the Texas state agricultural office said. "Wheat conditions
continued to improve in Northern High
Plains and the Low Plains due to the
combination of warmer temperatures
and recent moisture."
The U.S.D.A. rated Oklahoma wheat
41% good to excellent, 33% fair and
26% poor to very poor. Wheat jointing
was 16% compared with 20% last year
and 14% as the recent five-year average.
Colorado wheat was rated 31% good to
excellent (83% last year), 38% fair and
31% poor to very poor. Nebraska didn't
provide a crop condition update.
HARD SPRING. Premiums on hard
red spring wheat in Minneapolis were
unchanged to 25c a bu higher. The sole
gain applied to the top end of the premium range on 15%-protein wheat.
Market stability contrasted with wide
losses sustained in recent weeks. Rail car
offers were light, but mill demand for
spot supply was lacking. Reductions in
mill grind because of the Easter holiday
were a factor. But more important was
the limited need of domestic mills in
the wake of widespread substitution of
hard red winter wheat for spring wheat.
Large-scale substitution was expected to
remain a principal market feature until after the harvest of the 2008 spring
wheat crop.
The recent plunge in Minneapolis
wheat futures prices and cash wheat
premiums discouraged producer sales.
But most of the 2007 crop already was

sold by farmers much earlier.
SOFT RED. Mill bids on soft red winter
wheat were mostly weaker. In Kansas
City, No. 1 soft red bids declined 10c,
to 10c under K.C. May to 25c over. Gulf
bids on soft red for March were 30c over
Chicago May. St. Louis mill bids were
15c over Chicago May for 2 p.p.m. or less
vomitoxin. Chicago mill bids held at 15c
over Chicago May. Mill bids in Toledo
were 125c under Chicago July; new crop,
120c under July. Elevator bids were 16c
under May; new crop, 145c under July.
Cincinnati mill bids declined 5c, to 35c
under Chicago May. Elevator bids were
175c under May; new crop, 205c under
July. Michigan white wheat mill bids
were 10c under Chicago May.
Soft wheat millers meeting in Palm
Coast, Fla., projected soft red winter
wheat production in 2008 at 548 million bus, up 53% from 357 million bus
in 2007. If the forecast is realized, the
2008 soft red crop would be the largest
since 1989.
The U.S.D.A. rated Georgia's winter
wheat crop as of March 16 at 71% good to
excellent, 25% fair and 4% poor. The crop
was 49% in the joint stage and 4% in the
boot stage. The North Carolina crop was
rated 73% good to excellent, 26% fair and
1% poor. Louisiana winter wheat was
rated 59% good to excellent, 37% fair and
4% poor. Flooding and standing water in
fields because of heavy rain was evident
across southern Missouri and expanses
of Arkansas. MBN

No. 1 hard spring

Cash wheat

Milling quality, basis Minneapolis May, cents per bu
March 20
- Change from -
Year
Premium March 14 March 7
ago
Ordinary
...
...
...
...
11%
...
...
...
...
12%
...
...
...
45
13%
...
...
...
45 @ 50
13.5%
...
...
...
...
14%
125@ 200
-
-50 @ +25
55
14.5%
...
...
...
...
15%
200@ 300 +0 @ +25
...
50 @ 60
16%
...
...
...
50
17%
...
...
...
...

Exporter bids and offers
For
March 20
shipment
Bid
Offer
No. 1 Hard 12%, Track Gulf
Basis Kansas City future, cents per bu
March
...
...
April
...
...
May
...
...
June
+70 July
...
No. 2 Soft Red, c.i.f. New Orleans
Basis Chicago future, cents per bu
March
+30 May
40
April
... May
40
May
...
...
June
-90 July
-55

Year ago
bid

+72
+78
+75
+55

May
May
May
July

-5
-5
-5
-18

May
May
May
July

March 20 - Change from -
For shipment
Bid March 14 March 7
No. 1 Soft White, Track, Portland
$ per bu
Nearby
9.90
...
...
March
9.90
...
...
April
9.90
-1.10
...
No. 1 Hard 11.5%, Track, Portland
Basis Kansas City future, $ per bu
Nearby
1.25
...
-.45
March
1.25
...
-.45
April
1.30
-.25
-.75
No. 1 Spring 14%, Track, Portland
Basis Minneapolis future, $ per bu
Nearby
3.00
...
...
March
3.00
...
...
April
3.00
...
-

Year
ago
...
...
5.95
0.98
0.98
0.98

0.97
0.97
0.98

Canadian domestic milling wheat
Change from Year
In-store, Thunder Bay,
Canadian $ per tonne March 20 March 14 ago
Western red spring 13.5% 544.10 -45.13
241.46
Soft white spring
482.97
-6.62
264.26
Amber durum
905.57
-1.08
298.36
U.S. $ per bu
Western red spring 13.5% 14.42
-1.83
5.67
Soft white spring
12.80
-0.70
6.20
Amber durum
24.00
-1.00
7.00
Milling & Baking News

March 25, 2008 / 59
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Milling & Baking News - March 25, 2008

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