Milling & Baking News - April 8, 2008 - 7

Editorial

Heady array of good news on flour disappearance

ven though it is likely that revisions in prior capita disappearance plunged from its recent peak
data will moderate the jump in flour consump- of 146 pounds in 2000 to that nadir five years later.
tion in the United States in 2007, hardly any- This was a precipitous fall striking at the heart of
thing could diminish the pleasure for grain-based the industry's hopes for expanding demand. As
foods provided by these compilations. According per capita shrunk in response to usage holding
to estimates just released by the Economic Research and population expanding, serious questions were
Service of the U.S. Department of Agriculture, per raised about the future and the need to undertake
capita flour use through the 2007 calendar year re- actions to reverse a downward trend that was becovered at least 3 pounds of its previous disturbing ginning to erase the elation that characterized the
loss and total flour disappearance, which had ap- previous several decades.
peared to be stagnant for five years or longer, reWhen it comes to total disappearance, the 2007
sumed its upward course, bringing the aggregate for estimate, 415,462,000 hundredweights, stands as a
2007 to a record. Considering the gloom, if not dis- record. This is the amount remaining after imports
may, that had characterized the industry's reaction of flour and flour-containing products are added
to prior annual estimates, the 2007 data
to output to arrive at the total wheat
Breaking loose
mark a singular victory in proving once
flour supply and exports of flour and
leads to hope
again that consumers like and appreciate
flour products are deducted to leave net
foods made from wheat flour, and that an
domestic disappearance. It was in 1997
that upward
upward pattern may be achieved in the
that total use first exceeded 400 million
course will
face of the horrific interruption attributhundredweights, and from that point,
resume.
ed to low-carbohydrate dieting.
the aggregate seemed to be almost nearThe E.R.S. data reflect the annual Bureau of the ly locked near this number. That was definitely the
Census estimates of flour production. It is here that case in the first five years of the 21st century. Breakupward revisions are believed in prospect for out- ing loose from that rate represents an impressive
put in 2006 and perhaps earlier. This increase means accomplishment, leading to hope that the upward
that the 2007 rise in domestic disappearance was course ruling in the late 20th century will resume.
probably less than the amazing climb of 13,141,000
Several aspects of these happy numbers need to be
hundredweights indicated by the E.R.S. Similarly, kept in mind. One is the E.R.S. estimate that at least
the rise in per capita use in 2007 over 2006 was also a third of the annual flour disappearance is not conprobably smaller. Even before the likelihood of the sumed as food. Of similar importance is the difficulty
output revision for 2006 was known, industry exec- in ascribing the upward break-out to specific produtives had questioned whether the single year gain ucts or industry sectors. There is every reason, save
in 2007 could have been as large as the first figures the lack of such data, for crediting a large part of this
indicated.
gain to the success of the Grain Foods Foundation in
No matter how much smaller the 2007 increases reigniting consumer satisfaction in the wake of the
may be, the ending disappearance estimates are dieting disaster that marked the start of this century.
said to be correct. It is here that the grain-based At its current level, total disappearance is up slightly
foods industry derives maximum satisfaction. Per from the 21st century's beginning. Achieving gains
capita use in 2007 reached 137.5 pounds, which is anywhere near the prior two decades will require an
a substantial recovery from the recent low of 134.2 all-out effort by the industry in order to recapture
in 2005. No one in the industry may forget how per consumer enthusiasm for flour-based foods. MBN
MORTON SOSLAND, EDITOR-IN-CHIEF
WE'RE EAGER TO GET YOUR FEEDBACK: E-mail editor@sosland.com or write to us at
Milling & Baking News, 4800 Main Street, Suite 100, Kansas City, Mo, 64112

EDITORIAL STAFF
Editor-in-chief
Morton I. Sosland

Managing editor
Eric J. Schroeder

Graphic designer, market graphics, data
Christina Sullivan

Associate publisher
G. Michael Gude

Circulation manager
Judith Arnone

Associate editor
Jeff Gelski

PUBLISHING STAFF

Vice-president, chief financial officer
Melanie Hepperly

Director of distribution
Gary Humbert

Assistant editor
Ron Sterk

Chairman
Charles S. Sosland

Audience development director
Don Keating

Digital systems analyst
Marj Potts

Internet editor
Allison Sebolt

Vice-chairman
L. Joshua Sosland

Advertising manager
Nora Wages

Manager of Advertising Design
Becky White

President and publisher
Mark Sabo

Director of design services
Sadowna Conarroe

Marketing communications
manager/reprint manager
Carrie Fluegge

Executive editor, markets
Neil N. Sosland
Editor
L. Joshua Sosland
Senior editor, markets
Jay S. Sjerven

7 bakingbusiness.com
/ March 13, 2007 / world-grain.com
Milling & Baking News

bakingbusiness.com
/ world-grain.com
Milling & Baking
News
April
8, 2008 / 7

http://www.bakingbusiness.com http://www.world-grain.com http://www.bakingbusiness.com http://www.world-grain.com

Milling & Baking News - April 8, 2008

Table of Contents for the Digital Edition of Milling & Baking News - April 8, 2008