Milling & Baking News - May 20, 2008 - 15

Data

U.S.D.A. projects largest winter
wheat crop since 1998

of losses due to a late spring frost and
heavy rains at harvest time on the
southern Plains."
The U.S.D.A. projected Kansas
WASHINGTON - The National 961,588,000 bus in 2007. If the pro- wheat production at 357,200,000
Agricultural Statistics Service of the jection is realized, the 2008 hard red bus, up 73,400,000 bus, or 26%, from
U.S. Department of Agriculture on winter crop would be the largest 283,800,000 bus in 2007. The five-year
May 9 projected U.S. winter wheat since 2003. The recent five-year aver- average Kansas outturn was 350 milproduction in 2008 at 1,777,532,000 age hard red winter wheat outturn lion bus. Harvested area in Kansas
was projected at 9,400,000 acres, up
bus, up 261,543,000 bus, or 17%, from was 900 million bus.
The increase projected for hard red 800,000 acres from a year ago. The re1,515,989,000 bus in 2007. The projection was the U.S.D.A.'s first of the winter wheat production this year cent five-year average harvested area
season and was based on May 1 con- was attributed to larger crops forecast was 9,140,000 acres. Average yield in
the state was projected at 38
ditions.
bus per acre compared with
If the forecast is realWinter wheat production
33 bus per acre in 2007.
ized, the 2008 winter
The U.S.D.A. projected
wheat crop would be the
increases from 2007
2008 production of hard
largest since 1,880,733,000
white winter wheat, grown
bus in 1998. The recent
primarily in the southern
five-year average winter
+54%
Plains, at 23,172,000 bus, up
wheat production was
1,712,000 bus, or 8%, from
1,505,871,000 bus.
21,460,000 bus a year ago.
The 2008 winter wheat
Soft red winter wheat
harvested area was proproduction in 2008 was projected at 40,162,000 acres,
jected at 550,826,000 bus,
up 4,210,000 acres, or 12%,
up 192,929,000 bus, or 54%,
from 35,952,000 acres a
+5%
+17%
from 357,897,000 bus a year
year ago. Harvested area
+10%
+8%
ago. It would be the largest
would be the largest since
Winter
Hard red
Hard
Soft red
Soft
soft red winter wheat crop
1997.
wheat
winter white winter winter white winter
since 1982. The recent fiveThe average winter
Source: U.S. Department of Agriculture
year average soft red winter
wheat yield this year was
wheat outturn was 364 milprojected at 44.3 bus per
acre compared with 42.2 bus per acre for Kansas and Oklahoma. Produc- lion bus. The U.S.D.A. said, "Soft red
in 2007. Average yield would be simi- tion in the other principal producing winter wheat production is estimated
lar to that registered in 2005 at 44.4 states of the Southwest - Colorado, to rise because of higher planted and
bus per acre. The record high winter Nebraska and Texas - was projected harvested acres and yield. Soft red
winter production is also up in 2008
wheat yield was 47.8 bus per acre in lower than in 2007.
The U.S.D.A. in its May Wheat Out- because of expected lower abandon1999, and the recent low yield was
look issued May 12 stated, "Hard red ment. Abandonment was higher in
38.2 bus per acre in 2002.
Production of each class of winter winter wheat production is estimated 2007 because of losses due to a late
wheat was projected to be higher this to rise despite slightly lower planted spring frost."
The U.S.D.A. projected 2008 proarea and yield than in 2007. The largyear than in 2007.
Hard red winter wheat produc- er harvested area in 2008 is because of duction of soft white winter wheat at
tion was projected at 1,011,255,000 lower expected abandonment. Aban- 192,279,000 bus, up 17,235,000 bus, or
bus, up 49,667,000 bus, or 5%, from donment was higher in 2007 because 10%, from 175,044,000 bus in 2007. MBN

U.S.D.A. projects 2009 wheat carryover
to double from depressed 2008 level
WASHINGTON - In its first projections for the 2008-09 marketing year,
the U.S. Department of Agriculture
forecast U.S. wheat carryover on June
1, 2009, at 483 million bus, slightly
more than double the 239 million bus
estimated for 2008.
The projected 2009 U.S.D.A. carryover was well above average pre-report trade estimates that ranged from
424 million to 428 million bus.
"The 2008-09 U.S. wheat outlook
is for higher production, lower exports and increased domestic use,"
the U.S.D.A. said in its May 9 World
16 / May 20, 2008

Milling & Baking News

Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates report.
U.S. all wheat production was projected at 2,392 million bus for 2008, up 16%
from 2,067 million bus in 2007, based on
forecast winter wheat outturn of 1,778
million bus and projected spring wheat
production of 614 million bus using
planting intentions and trendline data
for yield and abandonment.
Total wheat supply was projected at
2,732 million bus for 2008-09, up 4% from
2,618 million bus in the current year.
Exports of U.S. wheat for 2008-09
were projected at 975 million bus,

down 305 million bus, or 24%, from
1,280 million bus in the current year.
The U.S.D.A. projected domestic
food use of U.S. wheat in 2008-09 at
960 million bus, up 10 million bus from
the current year, feed use at 230 million
bus, up 170 million bus, and seed use at
84 million bus, down 4 million bus.
The average farm price of U.S.
wheat in 2008-09 was projected in a
wide range of $6.60@8.10 a bus, compared with $6.55 in 2007-08 and $4.26
in 2006-07.
"Wheat prices will be supported by
farmer forward sales and early season
export demand," the U.S.D.A. said.
U.S. wheat ending stocks for 2007-08
were reduced by about 3 million bus, to
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Milling & Baking News - May 20, 2008

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