Milling & Baking News - May 20, 2008 - 18

Flour-ex-semolina in gain
Also engendering encouragement about the state of the overall
flour milling industry, 2007 data on
wheat flour production minus semolina (flour-ex-semolina), recorded
a significant increase for the second successive year but this year 's
gain proved to be nearly twice as
large as recorded in 2006. The sharp
two-year increase completely overshadowed a discouraging decrease
in 2005. The latter reduction, which
occurred in a year when overall output was up, also followed flour-exsemolina gains in the two preceding
years.
Flour-ex-semolina production in
2007 aggregated 386,032,000 cwts,
up 14,589,000, or 3.9%, from the preceding year. It was the second largest year on record. Flour-ex-semolina in 2006 totaled 371,443,000,
up 7,308,000, or 2%, from 2005.
The 2005 total was 364,135,000,
down 2,831,000, or 0.8%, from
2004. The 2004 aggregate, in turn,
was 366,966,000 cwts, up 442,000,
bakingbusiness.com / world-grain.com

or 0.1%, from the preceding year
and output in 2003, at 366,524,000,
was up 4,235,000, or 1.2%, from
a year earlier. Flour-ex-semolina
production in 2002, at 362,289,000,
was down 9,302,000, or 2.5%, from
the preceding year and 2001, at
371,591,000, was down 17,930,000,
or 4.6%, from 2000 when output
was a record 389,521,000. In turn,
2007 flour-ex-semolina was down
3,489,000, or 0.9%, from the high.
Flour-ex-semolina
in
1999
amounted to 385,882,000 cwts, the

two quarters topped the preliminary
while the last two lagged behind the
earlier numbers. The 2007 changes
ranged from an increase of 459,000
cwts in January-March to a gain of
180,000 in April-June.
Q4 capacity to record high
In the final quarter of 2007, daily
flour milling capacity was placed at
1,534,657 cwts, up 28,641, or 0.9%,
from a year earlier and a record high
for the bellwether fourth quarter. In
2006, daily flour milling capacity

U.S. flour production
418.8

403.4

395.0

393.9

396.2

394.7

404.5

421.3

412.0

398.9

404.1

397.8

388.7

392.5

387.4

370.8

362.3

(in million cwts)

354.3

information about individual mills.
With revised final numbers, 2007
registered an increase of 15,445,000
cwts from 2006 while the latter was
up 8,418,000 from 2005. The year,
2005, was up 1,048,000 from 2004.
In turn, the latter year was down
2,290,000 cwts from 2003, which followed a gain in 2003 of 1,515,000
cwts from 2002. All of these changes
were still overshadowed by decreases of 9,821,000 in 2002 and
16,749,000 in 2001. The 2001 decrease
was the largest cutback since 1949,
when production plunged a record
44,782,000 cwts in the wake of the
termination of post-World War II
export relief flour shipments.
The largest annual increase of
record occurred in 1945 when production jumped 31 million cwts,
followed by a drop in 1947 of
26,599,000 cwts. Since the start of
compilations, flour output has increased in 53 years and decreased
in 28. On average, flour production
has shown an annual increase of
2,570,188 cwts.
Production in 2007, at 418,836,000
cwts, was the second largest. The
record production was in 2000, at
421,270,000, followed by 2007 at
418,836,000, 1999 at 411,968,000,
2001 at 404,521,000 and 2006 at
403,391,000. These are the six years
in which output surpassed 400 millions cwts.

'90 '91 '92 '93 '94 '95 '96 '97 '98 '99 '00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07
Source: Bureau of the Census, U.S. Department of Commerce

third largest. Data for that and earlier years are not strictly comparable because of a definition change
for semolina beginning in 2000.
The fourth largest year was 1997
at 374,667,000, followed by 1998 at
371,858,000, 2001 at 371,591,000 and
2006 at 371,591,000.
Long stretch ahead of year earlier
Flour production in 10 consecutive
quarters through October-December
2007 topped year earlier totals. This
was the longest such stretch of output gains in recent memory. In addition, output in every quarter in 2007
topped the 100-million mark for the
first time since 2000.
The final 2007 summary, including revisions for 2006, confirms both
2006 and 2005 output in the last two
quarters topping the 100-million-cwt
mark. The 2004 summary showed
output only in the third quarter as
being above 100 million cwts. In
2003, output in two quarters, the
third and fourth, exceeded that total. In 2007, output in all quarters
exceeded the preliminary; in 2006
all quarters exceeded the preliminary and all were up still more with
the current 2006 revisions. In contrast, 2005 output in only the first

was estimated at 1,506,016 cwts, up
13,560, or 0.9%, from 1,492,456 in
2005. Daily capacity was 1,492,598
at the close of 2004, 1,512,064 at the
close of 2003, 1,499,862 in 2002 and
1,531,035 in 2001, which was the previous high for the fourth quarter.
Quarterly estimates of U.S. daily
flour milling capacity in the 2007
summary all show small gains
ranging from 3,000 in the third and
fourth quarters to 2,000 in the first
two. The 2006 summary shows all
small gains ranging from 19,000
cwts in the third and fourth quarters over the preliminary to 11,000
in January-March. It was 12,000 in
the second.
In the 2005 summary, gains ranged
from 2,000 to 6,000 cwts over preliminary numbers with the exception of April-June, which was down
1,000. This contrasts with 2004 when
gains ranged from 30,000 to 34,000
cwts over preliminary data compared with increases of 22,000 cwts
to 35,000 three years ago.
Average daily flour milling capacity in 2007, based on the summary quarterly revisions, was
1,532,000 cwts, up from 1,501,000
in 2006, 1,493,000 in 2005, 1,496,000
in 2004 but down from 1,510,000 in
Milling & Baking News

May 20, 2008 / 19

http://www.bakingbusiness.com http://www.world-grain.com

Milling & Baking News - May 20, 2008

Table of Contents for the Digital Edition of Milling & Baking News - May 20, 2008