Milling & Baking News - June 17, 2008 - 49

Ingredient Week

Cash Wheat

HARD WINTER. Premiums on hard red
winter wheat in Kansas City dropped
3@15c a bu last week. Fifteen-cent declines were the rule except at 11.6%
protein, which was down 3c a bu, and
at 11.8% protein, which declined 10c.
The downturn contrasted with wide advances scored across most of the protein
scale during the previous week. Current
and anticipated shipments of new crop
wheat and trades at lower levels prodded the market to make the downward
adjustments. The harvest expanded
across south central Kansas and even
southwest Kansas, though rain precluded combining across the eastern part of
the state. A meteorologist speaking to
members of the Kansas City Board of
Trade last Thursday forecast a good harvest weekend (July 14-15) but a return of
wet weather thereafter affecting western
Kansas and most of Oklahoma.
The cool, wet spring made for strong
yields and produced wheat with excellent test weight but low protein. The low
average protein in the new crop supported wide spreads between low-protein
and high-protein cash wheat premiums.
At 205c over Kansas City July, the basis
on 13%-protein wheat was $1.10 above
the basis on 12%-protein wheat, and the
12%-protein basis was $1 above that on
11%-protein supply.
Kansas Governor Kathleen Sebelius
declared six southwestern counties disaster areas because of drought. While
wheat yields there were likely to be reduced by dryness, stress to the crop may
generate protein, which was badly needed in view of low average protein in the
new crop harvested to date.
The U.S. Department of Agriculture
indicated Texas wheat was 34% harvested by June 8 compared with 15% around
the same date last year and 31% as the

No. 1 hard winter
Basis Kansas City July, cents per bu
June 13 - Change from -
Premium June 6 May 30
Ordinary 5 @ 40 -15 @ -15 -35@ -30
11%
80 @ 95 -15 @ -15 +15@ +15
11.2% 100 @ 115 -15 @ -15 -1@ -1
11.4% 120 @ 135 -15 @ -15 +19@ +19
11.6% 160 @ 175 -3 @ -3 +37@ +37
11.8% 170 @ 185 -10 @ -10 +30@ +30
12%
180 @ 195 -15 @ -15 +28@ +28
12.2% 180 @ 195 -15 @ -15 +28@ +28
12.4% 185 @ 200 -15 @ -15 +33@ +33
12.6% 185 @ 200 -15 @ -15 +20@ +20
12.8% 185 @ 200 -15 @ -15 +5@ +5
13%
190 @ 205 -15 @ -15 +10@ +10
13.2% 190 @ 205 -15 @ -15 +10@ +10
13.4% 195 @ 210 -15 @ -15 +10@ +10
13.6% 195 @ 210 -15 @ -15 -27@ -27
13.8% 195 @ 210 -15 @ -15 -27@ -27
14%
195 @ 210 -15 @ -15 -27@ -27
bakingbusiness.com / world-grain.com

Year
ago
55 @ 65
55 @ 65
55 @ 65
55 @ 65
55 @ 65
58 @ 68
58 @ 68
58 @ 68
59 @ 69
59 @ 69
59 @ 69
59 @ 69
59 @ 69
60 @ 70
60 @ 70
60 @ 70
60 @ 70

recent five-year average for the date. The
Oklahoma harvest also was 34% completed compared with 19% last year and
39% as the average for the date.
North of the main harvest areas, wheat
headed was 100% in Kansas, 81% in Nebraska (90% as the average for the date),
82% in Colorado (97%) and 24% in South
Dakota (67%).
HARD SPRING. Premiums on hard red
spring wheat in Minneapolis registered
mixed and relatively minor changes last
week, ending a three-week tailspin that
saw the basis drop 255c a bu in the case
of 14%-protein wheat.
A merchandiser attributed the steadier
market tone to mounting concerns over
the slow progress of the hard winter wheat
harvest and the low protein found in harvest wheat to date. In the crop year just
concluded, spring wheat buyers defected
to the hard winter wheat market because
even at record prices for all wheat, hard
winter wheat consistently traded at wide
discounts to spring wheat. A low-protein
2008 hard winter wheat crop could help
rejuvenate mill demand for spring wheat
in coming months.
Spring wheat emergence in the six
key states on June 8 was 98% compared
with 96% as the five-year average for the
date. Spring wheat condition in the six
states was rated 63% good to excellent
and 33% fair, compared with 57% and
39%, respectively, a week earlier. Last
year around the same date, spring wheat
rated 81% good to excellent and 14% fair.

Wheat rated good to excellent was 61%
in North Dakota (37% fair), 68% in South
Dakota (28%), 82% in Minnesota (15%),
56% in Montana (38%), 90% in Idaho
(10%) and 38% in Washington (49%).
SOFT RED. Mill bids on soft red winter wheat were unchanged to 50c a bu
lower. Mills in areas where the harvest
was approaching lowered bids in anticipation of a sharp increase in offers. In
Kansas City, No. 1 soft red bids held at
65c under K.C. July to 30c under. Gulf
bids on soft red for June declined 5c, to
150c under Chicago July. St. Louis mill
bids for spot supply declined 5c, to 10c
over Chicago July; balance-June and
new crop about 75c under. Chicago mill
bids for nearby were Chicago July price.
Mill bids in Toledo were 125c under Chicago July for old and new crop. Elevator bids were 95c under July for old and
new crop. Cincinnati mill bids dropped
50c, to 150c under July for old and new
crop. Elevator bids were 185c under July
for old and new crop. Michigan white
wheat mill bids were 50c under Chicago
July for old and new crop.
A wet weather pattern was forecast to
continue across the western Corn Belt,
with increased risk of flooding near rivers and streams. The U.S.D.A. indicated
the Arkansas harvest on June 8 was 21%
completed (33% as the average for the
date) and North Carolina wheat was 19%
combined (10%). Harvesting was 92%
completed in Louisiana, 54% in Georgia
and 34% in South Carolina. MBN

No. 1 hard spring

Cash wheat

Milling quality, basis Minneapolis Sept., cents per bu
June 13
- Change from -
Year
Premium June 6
May 30
ago
Ordinary
...
...
...
...
11%
...
...
...
...
12%
...
...
...
...
13%
160
+10 @ -10
-110
40
13.5%
...
...
...
...
14%
170
-
-155 @ -165 40 @ 42
14.5%
...
...
...
...
15%
200
...
-150 @ -175 40 @ 42
16%
...
...
...
...
17%
...
...
...
...

Exporter bids and offers
For
June 13
shipment
Bid
Offer
No. 1 Hard 12%, Track Gulf
Basis Kansas City future, cents per bu
June
...
...
July
+80 July
...
August
+80 Sep.
...
September
+80 Sep.
...
No. 2 Soft Red, c.i.f. New Orleans
Basis Chicago future, cents per bu
June
-150 July
-130
July
-140 July
-125
August
-100 Sep.
-75
September
-60 Sep.
-30

Year ago
bid

+52
+53
+52
+55

July
July
Sep.
Sep.

-30
-23
-8
+3

July
July
Sep.
Sep.

June 13 - Change from -
For shipment
Bid June 6
May 30
No. 1 Soft White, Track, Portland
$ per bu
Nearby
...
...
...
June
...
...
...
July
8.45
+.45
...
No. 1 Hard 11.5%, Track, Portland
Basis Kansas City future, $ per bu
Nearby
0.90
-
-.40
June
0.90
-
-.40
July
0.85
-
-.35
No. 1 Spring 14%, Track, Portland
Basis Minneapolis future, $ per bu
Nearby
1.10
-
...
June
1.10
-
...
July
1.10
-
...

Year
ago
6.05
6.05
6.05
0.30
0.30
0.30

0.55
0.55
0.55

Canadian domestic milling wheat
Change from Year
In-store, Thunder Bay,
June 13
June 6
ago
Canadian $ per tonne
Western red spring 13.5% 433.34 +28.34
253.58
Soft white spring
328.68 +21.75
251.13
Amber durum
661.15
-3.25
276.63
U.S. $ per bu
Western red spring 13.5% 11.47
0.65
6.46
Soft white spring
8.70
0.50
6.40
Amber durum
17.50
-0.25
7.05
Milling & Baking News

June 17, 2008 / 49

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Milling & Baking News - June 17, 2008

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