Milling & Baking News - June 17, 2008 - 50

Ingredient Week

 Wheat Futures

Wheat futures registered further sensational price advances last week. Prices
slipped at the week's outset but rallied
at midweek posting limit-up gains on
Wednesday. Surging corn and soy complex futures exerted a firm upward pull
on the wheat market. Concerns that delayed corn plantings could reduce crop
yields seemed to be confirmed by U.S.
Department of Agriculture 2008-09 supply/demand data that trimmed forecast
corn yields by 5 bus per acre. Wheat
prices also derived support from historic
oil prices and the weak dollar.
The U.S.D.A. on June 10 forecast U.S.
winter wheat production in 2008 at
1,817,364,000 bus, up 2% from the May
forecast and up 20% from 1,515,989,000
bus in 2007.
The U.S.D.A. raised its projection for
the carryover of wheat in the U.S. on
June 1, 2009, by 4 million bus, to 487 million bus. The forecast was up 233 million
bus, or 92%, from an estimated 254 million bus in 2008. All-wheat production
was projected at 2,432 million bus, up 40
million bus from May and up 18% from
2,067 million bus in 2007. Total wheat
supply in 2008-09 was projected at 2,786
million bus, up 168 million bus from
2007-08. Domestic wheat use in 2008-09

was projected at 1,299 million bus, up 25
million bus from May and up 18% from
2007-08. Wheat exports in 2008-09 were
projected at 1,000 million bus, up 25 million bus from May but down 265 million
bus from 2007-08.
The U.S.D.A. projected 2008-09 world
wheat ending stocks at 132.06 million
tonnes, up 8.07 million tonnes from the
May forecast and up 16.92 million tonnes
from the 26-year low of 115.14 million
tonnes in 2007-08. World wheat production in 2008-09 was projected at a record
662.9 million tonnes.
The U.S.D.A. indicated the U.S. winter wheat harvest was 9% completed
on June 8 compared with 10% as the
recent five-year average for the date.
Spring wheat emergence in the six key
states was 98%.
Export wheat sales during the week
ended June 5 totaled 335,100 tonnes. MBN

 Millfeed

Some extremely wide gains transpired
in major millfeed markets last week as
pricing attempted to keep up with rapidly escalating corn values, the latter
setting new all-time highs. Still, as corn
appeared to hesitate late in the week,
participants adopted a more cautious
stance regardless of comparative quotes.

Wheat futures

Kansas City wheat futures
July contract, $ per bu

$ per bu; change in cents per bu
June 13
Kansas City
July
9.24¼
September
9.38
December
9.53½
March
9.76
Chicago
July
8.82
September
8.99½
December
9.22
March
9.42
Minneapolis
July
10.54¼
September
9.77
December
9.88¼
March
10.05

Because of the volatility in millfeed and
many other feedstuffs, a number of participants were on the sidelines.
With many end users out of the market
after midweek, mills and merchandisers
had to deal with a surfeit of spot material
in a number of regions. In sharp contrast,
a new round of directions to move Southwest millfeed to Mexico affected that region bullishly. Consequently, Southwest
nearby saw some of the widest gains,
while Upper Midwest and Central states
saw more modest advances in nearby
positions. Deferred pricing was higher,
sharply so in some cases, as merchandisers
and other participants incorporated recent
gains in corn into current millfeed ranges.
Hesitation on the part of mixers reflected basic uncertainties created by the
record corn prices. While livestock must
continue to eat, concern mounted over
whether consumer demand would hold
up at current elevated prices.
Wheat germ prices were unchanged,
but demand appeared to pick up slightly.
Bulk middlings were $131 ton K.C.
and $144 Minneapolis, compared with
corn at $250 a ton and sorghum at $239,
K.C. Corn gluten feed was up $27 at
$135 ton, distillers' dried grain held at
$165 and dehydrated alfalfa was steady
at $235. MBN

Season's
Low

- Change from -
June 6 May 30

Week's
High
Low

Year
ago

High

+77½c +122¼c
+81¾c +122c
+73½c +117½c
+75c +127c

9.32
9.45
9.62
9.79

8.25
8.40
8.62
8.83

5.96¼
6.09
6.11½
6.18

13.00
12.95
12.99
12.75

(02-27-08)
(03-10-08)
(03-10-08)
(03-13-08)

4.39
4.73
4.85
4.78

(04-24-06)
(04-02-07)
(04-02-07)
(04-30-07)

+71c +104½c
+72¼c +100¼c
+71¾c +103c
+68¾c +123c

8.92
9.09½
9.25
9.46

7.87
8.04
8.27½
8.50½

6.06½
6.20¾
6.22
6.21

12.50
12.78
12.84¼
12.75

(02-27-08)
(03-10-08)
(03-10-08)
(03-13-08)

3.72
5.00
4.30
6.76

(01-16-06)
(05-21-07)
(04-24-06)
(10-24-07)

9.85
8.92
9.07
9.21

5.86¼
5.94¾
6.07¾
6.24½

15.50
13.20
13.15
13.00

(02-27-08)
(02-26-08)
(02-25-08)
(02-26-08)

4.67
4.40
4.80
5.19

(10-30-06)
(11-01-06)
(01-08-07)
(04-18-07)

+27c
-¾c
+65c +104c
+68¼c +113¼c
+75c +131c

10.55
9.78
9.90
10.05

Chicago wheat futures
July contract, $ per bu

Bulk middlings
$ per ton, delivered rail unless noted
Spot
Kansas City
131 @ 136
Southwest, f.o.b. truck
131 @ 136
Minneapolis
144 @ 149
Upper Midwest, f.o.b. truck 140 @ 145
Chicago West
157 @ 162
Central states, f.o.b truck 105 @ 110
Buffalo
100 @ 105
Southeast
106 @ 111
N. & S. California
195 @ 205
Los Angeles, f.o.b. truck 191 @ 201
Pacific Northwest
170 @ 180
Upper Midwest, sacked
230
Wheat germ
185 @ 195
50 / June 17, 2008

Milling & Baking News

June
131@ 136
131@ 136
141@ 146
137@ 142
154@ 159
110@ 118
105@ 110
110@ 115
195@ 205
191@ 201
170@ 180

- Change from - Year
June 6
May 30
ago
+13 @ +12 +31 @ +31 66 @ 70
+11 @ +14 +16 @ +16 76 @ 81
+7 @ +7 +9 @ +7 64 @ 69
+7 @ +7 +9 @ +7 60 @ 65
+7 @ +7 +9 @ +7 77 @ 82
+5 @ +7
-6 @ -3 62 @ 67
+10 @ +5 +10 @ +5 56 @ 62
+10 @ +10 +12 @ +11 60 @ 66
+16 @ +11 +8 @ +8 111 @ 126
+16 @ +11 +8 @ +8 107 @ 122
-
+5 @ 0 100 @ 107

July
Aug.-Sept.
132 @ 137 132 @ 137
132 @ 137 132 @ 137
145 @ 150 148 @ 153
141 @ 146 144 @ 149
158 @ 163 161 @ 166
115 @ 121 123 @ 129
110 @ 115 117 @ 122
123 @ 129 127 @ 134
190 @ 204 185 @ 199
186 @ 200 181 @ 195
170 @ 180 165 @ 180

Oct.-Dec.
157 @ 164
170 @ 180
158 @ 163
154 @ 159
171 @ 176
143 @ 155
130 @ 140
146 @ 153
188 @ 198
184 @ 194
165 @ 180

Minneapolis wheat futures
July contract, $ per bu

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Milling & Baking News - June 17, 2008

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