Milling & Baking News - October 7, 2008 - 33

Ingredient Week

 Cash Wheat

HARD WINTER. Premiums on hard red
winter wheat in Kansas City were unchanged to 38c a bu higher. Only ordinary
wheat was unchanged, and the basis on
11%-protein was up 1c. The basis across
the rest of the protein scale surged as mills
sought wheat to keep pipelines filled as
the fall crop harvest increasingly commanded the attention of producers and
country elevators. On most days, resellers
set the tone as they scrambled to secure
supply to meet commitments to mills, and
several sought to buy as much wheat on
the spot market as they could handle in the
hope of avoiding paying stiff premiums to
the spot market asked for last-half October
and November-December delivery.
Most mills that could stand aside did.
Mills with ample storage seemed comfortable with existing inventories and
contracts, but units lacking storage found
themselves competing with the resellers.
Elevators found replacement wheat difficult to purchase from producers.
Winter wheat planting progress and
emergence slightly lagged the averages
for the date in most hard red states as of
Sept. 28, the U.S. Department of Agriculture said. Planting was 37% completed
in Kansas (12% a week earlier and 38%
a year ago), 44% in Oklahoma (20% and
48%), 42% in Texas (22% and 48%), 76%
in Colorado (58% and 78%), 70% in Nebraska (44% and 75%) and 61% in South
Dakota (40% and 68%). Wheat emergence was 11% in Kansas (14% as the
average), 14% in Oklahoma (14%), 15%
in Texas (18%), 39% in Colorado (36%),
26% in Nebraska (40%) and 23% in South
Dakota (25%).
The corn harvest on Sept. 28 was 21%
completed in Kansas (49% as the average
for the date), 4% in Nebraska (11%), 16%
in Colorado (8%) and 66% in Texas (78%).

No. 1 hard winter
Basis Kansas City Dec., cents per bu
Oct. 3 - Change from -
Premium Sept. 26 Sept. 19
Ordinary -35 @ 0
-
+5 @ +5
11%
-10 @ 5 +1 @ +1 +10 @ +10
11.2%
-5 @ 10 +6 @ +6 +12 @ +12
11.4%
5 @ 20 +16 @ +16 +21 @ +21
11.6%
12 @ 27 +19 @ +19 +27 @ +27
11.8%
20 @ 35 +19 @ +19 +28 @ +28
12%
40 @ 55 +32 @ +32 +45 @ +45
12.2%
40 @ 55 +31 @ +31 +41 @ +41
12.4%
40 @ 55 +31 @ +31 +40 @ +40
12.6%
40 @ 55 +29 @ +29 +38 @ +38
12.8%
50 @ 65 +38 @ +38 +45 @ +45
13%
53 @ 68 +38 @ +38 +45 @ +45
13.2%
53 @ 68 +37 @ +37 +44 @ +44
13.4%
53 @ 68 +36 @ +36 +43 @ +43
13.6%
53 @ 68 +32 @ +32 +42 @ +42
13.8%
53 @ 68 +32 @ +32 +41 @ +41
14%
53 @ 68 +32 @ +32 +34 @ +34
bakingbusiness.com / world-grain.com

Year
ago
-15 @ 5
-10 @ 10
-5 @ 15
0 @ 20
5 @ 25
10 @ 30
15 @ 35
15 @ 35
15 @ 35
15 @ 35
15 @ 35
23 @ 43
23 @ 43
23 @ 43
23 @ 43
23 @ 43
23 @ 43

The soybean harvest was 2% completed
in Kansas (12% as the average) and 6%
in Nebraska (17%). The sorghum harvest
was 4% completed in Kansas (15% as the
average), 1% in Nebraska (6%), 11% in
Colorado (6%), 20% in Oklahoma (25%)
and 69% in Texas (66%).
HARD SPRING. Premiums on hard red
spring wheat in Minneapolis were 15c
a bu higher to 70c lower. The basis on
15%-protein wheat tumbled while premiums on wheat with protein below that
threshold were mostly firm. Even with
the basis setback on high-protein spring
wheat, the spread between premiums on
15%-protein wheat compared with the
basis on wheat with lower protein remained wide.
Demand broadened with exporters as
well as millers bidding on wheat.
The expanding soybean harvest across
the northern Plains raised the likelihood
of a slowdown in wheat movement in
the next few weeks. The soybean harvest was 9% completed in North Dakota
on Sept. 28 (26% as the average for the
date), 10% in South Dakota (13%) and
8% in Minnesota (22%).
U.S. Wheat Associates indicated on the
basis of 300 of 329 intended samples the
2008 hard red spring wheat crop was averaging 14.5% protein (14.8% last year),
60.9 lbs per bu in test weight (60.8 lbs last
year) and 416 seconds in falling number
(438 seconds). The average grade to
date was No. 1 northern spring versus

No. 1 dark northern spring in 2007.
SOFT RED. Mill bids on soft red winter
wheat remained at historic lows even as
the row crop harvest expanded into the
Central states. In Kansas City, No. 1 soft
red bids declined 2@8c a bu, to 200c under
K.C. Dec. to 100c under. Gulf bids on soft
red for October advanced 13c, to 97c under Chicago Dec. St. Louis mill bids were
unchanged at 215c under Chicago Dec.
Chicago mill bids for nearby were 200c
under Chicago Dec. Mill bids in Toledo
were 225c under Chicago Dec.; OctoberDecember, 205c under. Elevator bids were
195c under Dec. Elevators were accepting
no wheat until after row crop harvest is
completed. Cincinnati mill bids were unchanged at 200c under Chicago Dec. Elevator bids were 229c under Dec. Michigan white wheat mill bids were 125c under Chicago Dec. to 75c under.
Soft winter wheat planting on Sept. 28
was 4% completed in Illinois (7% as the
average for the date), 5% in Indiana (8%),
9% in Ohio (7%), 3% in Missouri (8%) and
13% in Michigan (28%), the U.S.D.A. said.
Wheat emergence was 2% in Illinois and
1% in Missouri and Michigan.
The corn harvest on Sept. 28 was 17%
completed in Missouri (60% as the average
for the date), 4% in Illinois (32%), 8% in Indiana (16%), 8% in Ohio (5%) and 3% in
Michigan (6%). The soybean harvest was
2% completed in Missouri (10%), 6% in Illinois (25%), 15% in Indiana (18%), 15% in
Ohio (14%) and 9% in Michigan (11%). MBN

No. 1 hard spring

Cash wheat

Milling quality, basis Minneapolis Dec., cents per bu
Oct. 3
- Change from -
Year
Premium Sept. 26 Sept. 19
ago
Ordinary
...
...
...
...
11%
...
...
...
...
12%
...
...
...
...
13%
-5 @ 15
+5 @ +15 +5 @ -5
55
13.5%
...
...
...
...
14%
35 @ 45
+5 @ +15 +15 @ -5
55 @ 70
14.5%
55 @ 90
+5 @ +10 +5 @ +10
...
15%
152 @ 180 -48 @ -70
-8 @ -55 60 @ 85
16%
200
...
...
...
17%
...
...
...
...

Exporter bids and offers
For
Oct. 3
shipment
Bid
Offer
No. 1 Hard 12%, Track Gulf
Basis Kansas City future, cents per bu
October
...
...
November
+85 Dec.
...
December
+90 Dec.
94
January
+82 March
87
No. 2 Soft Red, c.i.f. New Orleans
Basis Chicago future, cents per bu
October
-97 Dec.
-90
November
-82 Dec.
...
December
-85 Dec.
-75
January
-90 March -75

Year ago
bid

...
+79 Dec.
+79 Dec.
+85 March

+30
+40
+45
+45

Dec.
Dec.
Dec.
March

Oct. 3 - Change from -
For shipment
Bid Sept. 26 Sept. 19
No. 1 Soft White, Track, Portland
$ per bu
Nearby
...
...
...
October
...
...
...
November
...
...
...
No. 1 Hard 11.5%, Track, Portland
Basis Kansas City future, $ per bu
Nearby
0.35
-
-
October
0.35
-.10
-.15
November
0.45
-.10
-.15
No. 1 Spring 14%, Track, Portland
Basis Minneapolis future, $ per bu
Nearby
1.15
...
...
October
1.15
-
-
November
1.20
-
-

Year
ago
10.30
10.30
10.45
0.80
0.80
0.85

1.00
1.00
1.00

Canadian domestic milling wheat
In-store, Thunder Bay,
Canadian $ per tonne
Western red spring 13.5%
Soft white spring
Amber durum
U.S. $ per bu
Western red spring 13.5%
Soft white spring
Amber durum

Oct. 3
305.01
272.13
546.25
7.68
6.85
13.75

Milling & Baking News

Change from Year
Sept. 26
ago
-20.02
349.98
-16.87
400.19
+23.39
675.99
-0.87
-0.75
-

9.71
11.10
18.75

October 7, 2008 / 33
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Milling & Baking News - October 7, 2008

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