Milling & Baking News - October 21, 2008 - 40

Data

U.S.D.A. raises '09 wheat carryover
forecast to 601 million bus
forecast from September was the
result of a 38-million-bu increase
in estimated U.S. wheat production
this year, which more than offset a
10-million-bu increase in projected
feed and residual use of wheat.
American farmers harvested 2,500
million bus of wheat in 2008, up 433
million bus, or 21%, from 2,067 million bus in 2007. It was the largest
U.S. wheat crop since 2,547 million
bus in 1998. The record U.S. wheat
crop was harvested in 1981 at 2,785
million bus. The recent low U.S.
wheat production was 1,812 million
bus in 2006. The recent five-year
average U.S. wheat crop was 2,097
million bus.
U.S. wheat imports in
2008-09 were projected at 100
Wheat supply, disappearance
million bus, unchanged from
the September forecast and
2008-09 2007-08 2006-07 2005-06
down 13 million bus from the
- (million bus) -
previous year.
Supply
Given the 2008 carryover,
Carryover
306
456
571
540
production
and
forecast
Crop
2,500
2,067
1,812
2,105
2008-09 import numbers, the
Imports
100
113
122
81
U.S. wheat supply in the curTotal
2,905
2,635
2,505
2,726
rent crop year was projected
Domestic disappearance
at 2,905 million bus, up 38
Food
960
948
938
915
million bus from the SeptemSeed
84
88
82
78
ber forecast and up 270 milFeed
260
30
121
160
lion bus, or 10%, from 2,635
Total
1,304
1,066
1,140
1,152
million bus in 2007-08. The
Exports
1,000
1,264
908
1,003
2006-07 wheat supply was
Total disappearance
2,304
2,330
2,049
2,155
2,505 million bus. This year 's
Ending stocks
601
306
456
571
projected wheat supply was
WASHINGTON - The Economic
Research Service of the U.S. Department of Agriculture on Oct. 10
projected the carryover of wheat in
the U.S. on June 1, 2009, at 601 million bus, up 27 million bus from its
September forecast and up 295 million bus, or 96%, from 306 million
bus in 2008.
The 2008 carryover was the smallest June 1 wheat inventory in the
United States since shortly after
World War II. At 601 million bus, the
2008 wheat carryover would be the
largest since 777 million bus in 2002
and compare with 475 million bus as
the recent five-year average.
The increase in the 2009 carryover

With an

the largest in any crop year since
2,931 million bus in 2001-02.
Wheat disappearance during the
2008-09 marketing year was projected at 2,304 million bus, up 10 million
bus from the September forecast but
down 26 million bus from 2,330 million bus in 2007-08.
Domestic use of wheat in 2008-09
was projected at 1,304 million bus,
up 10 million bus from the September forecast and up 238 million bus,
or 22%, from 1,066 million bus during the previous year.
Food use of wheat was projected
at a record 960 million bus, unchanged from September and up 12
million bus from 2007-08.
Seed use of wheat was projected
at 84 million bus, unchanged from
September but down 4 million bus
from the previous year, which indicated an expected smaller area
planted for harvest in 2009 than was
the case for this year.
Feed and residual use of wheat in
2008-09 was projected at 260 million
bus, up 10 million bus from the September forecast and up 230 million
bus from 30 million bus in the previous year. Feed and residual use
of wheat in 2007-08 was the lowest
since 29 million bus in 1963-64.
U.S. wheat exports in 2008-09
were projected at 1,000 million bus,
unchanged from the September
forecast but down 264 million bus
from 2007-08. The recent five-year
average U.S. wheat outgo was 1,080
million bus.
The E.R.S. projected the average

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40 / October 21, 2008

Milling & Baking News

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Milling & Baking News - October 21, 2008

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