Milling & Baking News - November 4, 2008 - 35

Ingredient Market Trends
Weekly Spotlight

U.S.D.A. reduces corn, soybean
production forecasts after errors found

T
Indexes
Saltine Cracker Ingredients

Bagel Ingredients

Price Indicators
2
3
THIS LAST WEEKS WEEKS
WEEK WEEK AGO AGO
Pan-bread flour
Wheat futures,
K.C., Dec.

Hard winter
premiums,
12.2% protein

Millfeed, K.C.,
30-day

Soybean oil
Cane sugar
Cocoa
/ world-grain.com
35 /bakingbusiness.com
July 3, 2007
Milling
& Baking News

he U.S. Department of Agriculture
last week issued a rare correction
to its monthly Crop Production report after it discovered erroneous planted area data had been used for several
crops, including corn and soybeans.
The U.S.D.A. trimmed 1.02 million
acres, or 1%, from 2008 planted area for
corn and lowered its estimate for harvested area by a like amount, to 78,177,000
acres. Because of where the acres were
lost, the average yield was forecast at
153.9 bus an acre, down from 154 bus in
the Oct. 10 Crop Production report. As
a result, 2008 corn production was forecast at 12,033 million bus, down 167 million bus, or 1%, from 12,200 million bus
on Oct. 10. It still was the second-largest
crop ever and fell within the range of
trade expectations for the original October report, the department noted.
Numbers consequently were adjusted
in the World Agricultural Supply and
Demand Estimates. The U.S.D.A. lowered total corn supply by 166 million
bus from Oct. 10, to 13,673 million bus
for 2008-09. Feed and residual use was
trimmed by 50 million bus, to 5,300 million bus, and exports also were lowered
50 million bus, to 1,950 million bus. Unchanged was the projection for food,
seed and industrial use at 5,335 million
bus, which included 4,000 million bus
for ethanol. The corn carryover on Sept.
1, 2009, was projected at 1,088 million
bus, down 66 million bus, or 6%, from
the earlier number. The forecast average price of corn in 2008-09 was raised a
nickel to $4.25@5.25 a bu.
For soybeans, the U.S.D.A. cut 1.11
million acres from both planted and
harvested area, leaving the latter at
74,374,000 acres, down 1.5% from the
Oct. 10 number. The forecast average
yield was unchanged at 39.5 bus an
acre.
The 2008 soybean crop was estimated
at 2,938 million bus, down 45 million
bus, or 1.5%, from Oct. 10. As with the
original forecast, the crop still would be
the fourth largest on record.
Total soybean supply was reduced
by a like amount, to 3,150 million bus.
Projected crushings in 2008-09 were
unchanged at 1,760 million bus, but ex-

ports were lowered 30 million bus, to
1,020 million bus. The carryover on Sept.
1, 2009, was projected at 205 million bus,
down 15 million bus, or 7%, from Oct.
10. The average price was raised a dime
to $9.70@11.20 a bu.
Projected supply and use of soybean
meal and soybean oil were unchanged
from the original Oct. 10 report.
The incorrect acreage data also resulted in lower projections for 2008 canola,
dried beans and sunflowerseed crops

and a higher forecast for grain sorghum
output.
While the revisions had a generally
bullish impact on the market because of
reduced supplies, traders noted they did
not change general trends of "bearish
corn" and "bullish soybeans" that existed before the news. And outside markets, including equity, credit and crude
oil, continued to play a major role in
day-to-day moves of grain and oilseed
futures prices.
The U.S.D.A. errors evidently occurred
in the transfer of data from computers at
the Farm Service Administration to the
National Agricultural Statistics Service,
which releases the Crop Production report. The department was commended
for the openness it showed in addressing the problem and for the speed with
which it issued new data. MBN
Milling & bakingbusiness.com
Baking News
November
4, 2008 / 35
/ world-grain.com

http://www.bakingbusiness.com http://www.world-grain.com http://www.bakingbusiness.com http://www.world-grain.com

Milling & Baking News - November 4, 2008

Table of Contents for the Digital Edition of Milling & Baking News - November 4, 2008