Milling & Baking News - November 4, 2008 - 37

Ingredient Week

 Cash Wheat

HARD WINTER. Premiums on hard red
winter wheat in Kansas surged 13@47c
a bu. The widest gains occurred across
the top and bottom thirds of the protein
scale. Mills pressed for offers to sustain
wheat movement amid the ongoing fall
crop harvest. Farmer selling of wheat
was nearly lacking in the past few weeks
as mill grind turned increasingly heavy
seasonally. Indications were some mills
purchased wheat for January-March.
The transactions marked the first significant activity in the market for to-arrive
wheat in weeks.
In contrast to the strengthening domestic cash basis, Gulf exporters didn't
press for supply, with bids steady or
even absent on the nearby.
The spike in the cash basis and advancing wheat futures prices encouraged some producers to liquidate additional 2008 crop wheat, but the market
required more. Producers had options
with new crop corn, soybeans and sorghum to sell as well as wheat. Some cash
market participants suggested hard winter wheat producers earlier sold about
half their crop and were tight holders of
the remainder.
Fall fieldwork still occupied many producers. The U.S. Department of Agriculture indicated winter wheat planting on
Oct. 26 was 83% completed in Kansas
(92% as the recent five-year average for
the date), 98% in Nebraska (99%), 86% in
Oklahoma (89%), 81% in Texas (81%) and
100% in Colorado. Wheat emergence was
73% in Kansas (73%), 74% in Oklahoma
(73%), 66% in Texas (60%), 91% in Nebraska (94%) and 95% in Colorado (93%).
In its first composite ratings of
2009 crop winter wheat condition, the
U.S.D.A. rated good to excellent 72% of
the crop in Kansas (64% last year), 68%

No. 1 hard winter
Basis Kansas City Dec., cents per bu
- Change from -
Premium Oct. 24 Oct. 17
Ordinary 22 @ 57 +42 @ +42 +57 @ +57
11%
52 @ 67 +47 @ +47 +62 @ +62
11.2% 52 @ 67 +32 @ +32 +42 @ +42
11.4% 52 @ 67 +27 @ +27 +37 @ +37
11.6% 52 @ 67 +22 @ +22 +30 @ +30
11.8% 62 @ 77 +17 @ +17 +32 @ +32
12%
63 @ 78 +15 @ +15 +25 @ +25
12.2% 63 @ 78 +13 @ +13 +24 @ +24
12.4% 63 @ 78 +13 @ +13 +24 @ +24
12.6% 63 @ 78 +13 @ +13 +24 @ +24
12.8% 67 @ 82 +17 @ +17 +21 @ +21
13%
75 @ 90 +24 @ +24 +24 @ +24
13.2% 78 @ 93 +24 @ +24 +27 @ +27
13.4% 81 @ 96 +27 @ +27 +28 @ +28
13.6% 84 @ 99 +30 @ +30 +31 @ +31
13.8% 87 @ 102 +30 @ +30 +30 @ +30
14%
90 @ 105 +33 @ +33 +33 @ +33
bakingbusiness.com / world-grain.com

Year
ago
18 @ 28
25 @ 35
35 @ 45
55 @ 65
60 @ 70
62 @ 72
64 @ 74
66 @ 76
72 @ 82
76 @ 86
77 @ 87
86 @ 96
86 @ 96
86 @ 96
88 @ 98
88 @ 98
93 @ 103

in Oklahoma (43%), 52% in Texas (29%),
79% in Nebraska (70%), 77% in Colorado
(90%) and 61% in South Dakota (67%).
Except in Colorado, the fall crop harvest progress across the Southwest continued to lag the average pace for the
date. The U.S.D.A. indicated the corn
harvest on Oct. 26 was 60% completed
in Kansas (87% as the recent five-year
average), 78% in Texas (97%), 21% in
Nebraska (56%) and 61% in Colorado
(51%). The soybean harvest was 60%
completed in Kansas (68%) and 82% in
Nebraska (89%).
HARD SPRING. Premiums on hard
red spring wheat in Minneapolis were
55c a bu higher to 5c lower last week.
The March became the basic future at a
10c discount to the December. The basis undertone was firm as wheat offers
were limited in the midst of the fall crop
harvest. A number of mills bid on wheat
on most days, while exporters were in
and out of the market. The inverse in the
Minneapolis wheat futures combined
with the firm cash wheat market to signal mill needs for shipments.
Farmers and country elevators
were busy handling the fall crops. The
U.S.D.A. indicated the soybean harvest
on Oct. 26 was 77% completed in North
Dakota (93% as the recent five-year average for the date), 83% in South Dakota
(92%) and 92% in Minnesota (95%). The
corn harvest was 4% completed in North
Dakota (51%), 16% in South Dakota

(50%) and 30% in Minnesota (64%).
SOFT RED. Mill bids on soft red winter
wheat were raised in efforts to pry supply
loose from tight country hands. In Kansas City, No. 1 soft red bids were raised
15c a bu, to 165c under K.C. Dec. to 65c
under. Gulf bids on soft red for October
declined 5c, to 30c under Chicago Dec. St.
Louis mill bids advanced 50c a bu, to 100c
under Chicago Dec. Chicago mill bids for
nearby rose 55c, to 150c under Chicago
Dec. Mill bids in Toledo were raised 45c,
to 150c under Chicago Dec. Elevator bids
were 140 under Dec. Cincinnati mill bids
were raised 75c, to 125c under Chicago
Dec. Elevator bids were 145c under Dec.
Michigan white wheat mill bids were
115c under Chicago Dec. to 75c under.
Producers were occupied with the fall
harvest, which was progressing more
slowly than the average pace, and planting 2009 crop soft red winter wheat. The
U.S.D.A. indicated winter wheat planting
on Oct. 26 was 43% completed in Missouri
(63% as the average), 78% in Illinois (84%),
87% in Indiana (85%), 100% in Ohio (85%)
and 92% in Michigan (90%). Emergence
was 23% in Missouri (40%), 40% in Illinois
(56%), 59% in Indiana (55%), 72% in Ohio
(58%) and 59% in Michigan (62%).
Winter wheat rated good to excellent
on Oct. 26 was 53% in Missouri (63% last
year), 81% in Illinois (67%), 66% in Indiana (73%), 65% in Ohio (86%) and 31% in
Michigan (80%), with 57% of the Michigan crop rated fair. MBN

No. 1 hard spring

Cash wheat

Milling quality, basis Minneapolis Dec., cents per bu
- Change from -
Year
Premium Oct. 24
Oct. 17
ago
Ordinary
...
...
...
...
11%
...
...
...
...
12%
30
...
...
...
13%
45 @ 60
-5 @ 0
-15 @ 0
100
13.5%
90
+22 @ 0
+20
...
14%
115
+10 @ +5 +35 @ +10 90 @ 100
14.5%
145
+20 @ +5
...
...
15%
245 @ 270 +55 @ +20 +60 @ +30 90 @ 105
16%
...
...
...
...
17%
...
...
...
...

Exporter bids and offers
For
Oct. 31
shipment
Bid
Offer
No. 1 Hard 12%, Track Gulf
Basis Kansas City future, cents per bu
November
+85 Dec.
...
December
+88 Dec.
...
January
+80 March
86
February
+80 March
86
No. 2 Soft Red, c.i.f. New Orleans
Basis Chicago future, cents per bu
November
-45 Dec.
-25
December
-45 Dec.
-35
January
-55 March -45
February
-55 March -45

Year ago
bid

Year
ago
...
...
9.65
0.95
0.95
1.05

1.25
1.25
1.25

Canadian domestic milling wheat

...
...
...
...

+55
+55
+60
+60

Oct. 31 - Change from -
For shipment
Bid Oct. 24 Oct. 17
No. 1 Soft White, Track, Portland
$ per bu
Nearby
...
...
...
November
...
...
...
December
5.03
...
...
No. 1 Hard 11.5%, Track, Portland
Basis Kansas City future, $ per bu
Nearby
...
...
...
November
...
...
...
December
0.55
-
-
No. 1 Spring 14%, Track, Portland
Basis Minneapolis future, $ per bu
Nearby
1.85
+.20
+.50
November
1.85
+.20
+.50
December
1.85
+.20
+.50

Dec.
Dec.
March
March

Change from Year
In-store, Thunder Bay,
Oct. 31
Oct. 24
ago
Canadian $ per tonne
Western red spring 13.5% 330.55 +13.95
317.58
Soft white spring
254.78 -11.82
354.2
Amber durum
491.69 -81.39
687.77
U.S. $ per bu
Western red spring 13.5%
7.40
0.63
9.24
Soft white spring
5.70
-
10.30
Amber durum
11.00
-1.25
20.00
Milling & Baking News

November 4, 2008 / 37
http://www.bakingbusiness.com http://www.world-grain.com
Milling & Baking News - November 4, 2008

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