Milling & Baking News - November 18, 2008 - 43

of wheat ranks second to China, accounted for only 2,164,000 tonnes of
wheat flour produced by its commercial mills in 2006. That was
down 13% from the prior year and
was down more than 50% from a decade earlier, probably the result of a
realignment in the industry.
Mills in Australia produced
2,016,000 tonnes in 2006, down 3%
from 2005, but up nearly 11% from a
decade earlier.
Brazil's output of 7,362,000 tonnes
in 2006 was up 3.6% from 7,126,000 in
2005 and was 17% ahead of production a decade earlier in 1996. Argentina in 2006 produced 3,794,000 tonnes
of flour, up 2% from the preceding
year and 15% ahead of output in 1996.
Output by Chile totaled 1,298,000
tonnes, about the same as in 2005 but
16% ahead of 1,120,000 in 1996.
In addition to assembling statistics

on flour production around the world,
the I.G.C. estimates food consumption
of wheat in a number of countries, including some of the major flour producers where flour output data are
not available. The Council cautions
about converting its wheat food statistics into missing flour output data,
and points out that in many countries
much flour and similar products are
made by home grinding or production in small mills not reporting to the
central government for the purposes
of reporting flour production.
For instance, in the case of India,
where commercial flour output in
2006 was reported at 2,164,000 tonnes,
consumption of wheat for food in the
2006-07 crop year was estimated at
67.1 million tonnes. The latter would
indicate actual flour production many
times the reported commercial figure.
Similarly in Ukraine, the flour

U.S.D.A. trims corn, soybean
forecasts from October
WASHINGTON - The U.S. Department of Agriculture in its Nov. 10
Crop Production report trimmed
forecasts for 2008 corn and soybean
production by less than 1% from its
revised Oct. 28 forecasts.
Corn production was forecast at
12,020 million bus, down 13 million
bus from October and down 8% from
the record large 2007 crop of 13,074
million bus.
Soybean production in 2008 was
forecast at 2,921 million bus, down
18 million bus from October but up
9% from 2,676 million bus last year.
The U.S.D.A. forecasts were slightly below average trade expectations
for corn and slightly above for soybeans. Traders saw the corn number
as slightly bullish and the soybean
forecast as neutral. Although fundamentals, mainly strong demand,
have been more supportive for soybean prices, concerns have been increasing about possible corn crop
losses as the harvest significantly
lags normal. The harvest was 71%
completed in the 18 major states as
of Nov. 9, well behind 92% a year ago
and 88% as the 2003-07 average for
the date, the U.S.D.A. said.
Heavy snow along with rain and
ice in the first two weeks of November slowed or halted harvesting in
the northwestern part of the Midwest, where progress already was
furthest behind average. As of Nov. 9
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combining in North Dakota was 23%
completed (81% as the 2003-07 average for the date), South Dakota 53%
(81%), Nebraska 58% (85%), Wisconsin 58% (71%), Iowa 62% (90%), Missouri 71% (94%) and Minnesota 75%
(90%).
Corn yield based on Nov. 1 conditions was forecast to average 153.8
bus an acre, down 0.1 bus from October but up 2.7 bus from last year.
If realized both production and yield
would be the second largest on record. Harvest area was forecast at
78.2 million acres, unchanged from
the revised October number but
down 10% from 2007.
"Forecasted yields are higher than
last year across the northern half of
the Great Plains and northern and
central Corn Belt," the U.S.D.A. said.
"Yield prospects are lower than last
year in the southern half of the Great
Plains and Delta."
Record high ear counts per acre
were forecast for Illinois, Indiana,
Iowa, Minnesota, Missouri, Ohio,
South Dakota and Wisconsin, the
U.S.D.A. said.
The average soybean yield was
forecast at 39.3 bus an acre, down 0.2
bus from October and down 2.4 bus
from 2007. Area for harvest was forecast at 74.4 million acres, unchanged
from the revised October forecast
but up 16% from 2007. If realized, it
would be the fourth largest soybean

output of 2,282,000 tonnes seems far
short of estimated consumption of
wheat for food of 6.6 million tonnes.
Here, the indication was that the Soviet-era milling industry has disaggregated into a number of smaller,
independent mills not covered by
official flour production statistics.
In the case of China, the I.G.C. estimated its consumption of wheat for
food in 2006-07 at 91 million tonnes,
compared with 92.9 million in the
previous season. Food use in Russia,
another country without current flour
output data, was estimated at 16.6 million tonnes, the same as in 2005-06.
In contrast with the apparent large
discrepancy between flour production and consumption of wheat as
food in many nations, the I.G.C.
data for the United States shows
flour production and wheat food
use in close balance. MBN
crop and the second most acres harvested on record.
"Compared with Oct. 1, yields are
forecast lower or unchanged across
the Corn Belt and Great Plains, with
the exception of Illinois, Indiana and
Missouri," the U.S.D.A. said. "Yields
increased from the Oct. 1 forecast in
Alabama, Arkansas, Tennessee, New
York and Virginia." Arkansas was
expected to have record high yields.
Farmers' focus on harvesting soybeans ahead of corn this fall allowed
combining of soybeans to reach 93%
completed in the 18 major states as of
Nov. 9, even with the 2003-07 average for the date, the U.S.D.A. said.
Peanut production was forecast at
a record 4,993 million lbs, up 1% from
October and up 36% from 2007. Average yield was forecast at a record high
3,342 lbs an acre, up 9% from 2007.
Cottonseed production was forecast at 4,599,000 tons, down 1% from
October and down 30% from 2007.
Grain sorghum outturn was forecast at 465 million bus, down 1%
from October and 8% below 2007.
Average yield was forecast at 63 bus
an acre, down 0.9 bus from October
and down 11.2 bus from 2007.
U.S. rice production was forecast at
203 million cwts, down 665,000 cwts
from October but up 3% from 2007.
Average yield was forecast at 6,959
lbs an acre, down 3% from the record
high yield of 7,185 lbs in 2007.
The next revisions to this year's corn
and soybean production numbers will
be issued by the U.S.D.A. in its January
Crop Production 2008 Summary. MBN
Milling & Baking News

November 18, 2008 / 43

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Milling & Baking News - November 18, 2008

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