Milling & Baking News - November 18, 2008 - 51

Ingredient Week

Soy Products

Sales of soy flour slowed last week.
Price changes were irregular. Although
some contracting took place, mainly for
the first quarter of 2009, business was
slow for what typically is an active booking period. Buyers were uncertain about
demand for their products and saw little
upside price potential for soy flour because of the weak economy. Lead times
for new orders were two to three weeks.
The soybean harvest in the 18 major
states advanced to 93% completed as of
Nov. 9, up from 86% a week earlier and
even with the 2003-07 average for the
date, the U.S. Department of Agriculture
said. Combining was 95% or more completed in the key Corn Belt states.
The U.S.D.A. estimated 2008 soybean
production at 2,921 million bus, down 18
million bus from its October estimate but
9% above last year and the fourth largest
crop ever. Average yield was forecast at
39.3 bus an acre, down 0.2 bus from October and down 2.4 bus from 2007.
The projected carryover of soybeans
on Sept. 1, 2009, was 205 million bus, unchanged from October and equal to 2008
carryover. Crushings were projected at
1,745 million bus in 2008-09, down 15
million bus from October and 56 million
bus less than a year earlier. Exports were
unchanged from October at 1,020 million
bus but were down 12%, from 2007-08.
Soy complex futures prices declined mostly on pressure from outside markets and fears
a global recession could reduce demand.
Net export sales of U.S. soybeans for
2008-09 during the week ended Nov. 6
were 478,300 tonnes, down 47% from a
week earlier, the U.S.D.A. said. Soybean
meal sales for the week totaled 124,400
tonnes, up 16% from a week earlier. MBN

Chicago corn and soy futures
Corn Futures
$ per bu
December
March
May
July
September
December
Soybeans
November
January
March
May
July
August
Soybean Meal
December
January
March
May
July
August

Corn meal price changes were narrow
but irregular last week. Sales were steady
compared with a week earlier with the
best interest in flaking grits from breakfast cereal manufacturers. Mills ran five
to 6½ days, with longer run times still
more a factor of problems transitioning
to new crop corn than of strong demand.
Corn sales by farmers increased.
The corn harvest advanced to 71%
completed as of Nov. 9 but was halted
by a major winter storm before that date
in northwestern sections of the Corn Belt
and was slowed by rain or snow across
much of the Midwest last week. Progress
was well behind 92% a year ago and 88%
as the 2003-07 average, the U.S. Department of Agriculture said.
The U.S.D.A. estimated 2008 corn production at 12,020 million bus, down 13
million bus from its October estimate and
8% below the record-large 2007 crop. Average yield was forecast at 153.8 bus an
acre, down 0.1 bus from October but up
2.7 bus from 2007. Production and yield
would be the second largest on record.
The projected corn carryover on Sept.
1, 2009, was 1,124 million bus, up 36 million bus from 1,088 million bus in October
but down 500 million bus, or 31%, from
2008. Exports were projected at 1,900 million bus, down 50 million bus from October and compared with 2,436 million
bus in 2007-08. Other use categories were
unchanged from October with feed and
residual at 5,300 million bus and food,
seed and industrial at 5,335 million bus,
including 4,000 million bus for ethanol.
Corn futures ended with narrow price
changes as pressure from outside markets
and waning export demand offset support
from friendly U.S.D.A. data and concerns

Oats

Bookings of food grade oat flakes
were active as prices continued to decline. Oats flake prices were 50c a cwt
lower, down 30% from early-July highs,
and were at two-year lows.
Demand for oats flakes remained
strong as users booked mostly through
the first quarter of 2009, but some added
coverage through the second quarter
and even into the third quarter, or the remainder of the crop year. Sales of oats by
Canadian farmers were slow, but millers' supplies remained ample. MBN

Rice

Milled rice prices held mostly steady
last week. Rice byproduct prices were
mixed with bran weaker but millfeed and
hulls firm to higher. U.S. Department of
Agriculture 2008 crop world milled rice
prices declined 67@99c a cwt.
Rough rice futures prices sank to
11-month lows last week, pressured by
bearish U.S.D.A. data and price forecasts, lower prices in Asia and projected
record global 2008-09 rice production.
The U.S.D.A. estimated the 2008 U.S.
rice outturn at 203 million cwts, down
665,000 cwts from October but 3% above
2007. Average yield was forecast at 6,959
lbs an acre, down 3% from the record
high of 7,185 lbs in 2007. The rice carryover on Aug. 1, 2009, was projected at
25.4 million cwts, up 300,000 cwts from
October but 4 million cwts under 29.4
cwts in 2008. MBN

Rice

Defatted, f.o.b. Midwest plant, $ per cwt
- Change from -
Nov. 14
Nov. 7
Oct. 31
Soy flour
Bulk
19.08 @ 19.50 +.22@ +.12 +.18 @ -.60
Sacked
20.50 @ 21.08 +.64@ -.30 +.60 @-1.02

+4¾
+3½
+3
+2¾
+2½
+2

-21¼
-22¼
-22¼
-22
-20
-17½

3.79½
3.96½
4.06¼
4.14¾
4.18¾
4.24¼

-33¾
-25
-24½
-23¾
-24½
-24½

-47¼
-37
-40¼
-41
-41¾
-42

10.77¾
10.93¾
10.98¼
11.02¼
10.85
10.44

Nov. 14
Chicago, bulk
12.58@ 17.08
Chicago, sacked 14.35@ 18.91
New York, bulk
14.25@ 18.81
New York, sacked 16.67@ 21.20

-6.20
-6.40
-6.60
-6.50
-6.80
-6.70

-7.50
-7.50
-4.90
-9.30
-9.70
-8.60

292.30
294.60
298.80
298.80
299.30
294.00

Minneapolis
Nov. 14
Food grade flakes, f.o.b.,
bagged, $ per cwt
23@23.50
Milling quality oats, No. 2 heavy,
$ per bu
2.15½
Oat hulls, $ per ton
25@35

bakingbusiness.com / world-grain.com

about losses from the delayed harvest.
Net export sales of corn during the
week ended Nov. 6 totaled 357,800
tonnes for 2008-09 and 2009-2010, the
U.S.D.A. said. MBN

Soy products

- Change from - Year
Nov. 14 Nov. 7 Oct. 31 ago
3.80¼
3.97
4.08½
4.19¾
4.30¼
4.43
$ per bu
8.78
8.96
9.05
9.15¾
9.24
9.26½
$ per ton
265.50
266.80
269.10
271.90
274.50
276.10

Corn Products

Corn meal
$ per cwt
- Change from -
Nov. 7
Oct. 31
-.07@+.08 -.58@-.20
-.07@+.08 -.58@-.20
-.07@+.08 -.58@-.20
-.07@+.08 -.58@-.20

Oats
- Change from -
Nov. 7 Oct. 31
-50c

-50c

-19c
-

-16c
-

Offers f.o.b. mills, $ per cwt, bagged
- Change from - Year
Cash
Nov. 14
Nov. 7 Oct. 31 ago
Long grain
33.50@38.00
-
- 20.00
Medium grain 44.00@46.50
-
- 23.00
Parboiled
36.50@42.00
-
- 23.50
Second
heads, bulk 28.00@29.50
-
- 16.00
Brewers
25.00@28.00
-
- 14.00
f.o.b. mills, $ per ton
Rice millfeed
62@72
- +2.00
...
Rice bran
120@135
-
- 90.00
Rice hulls
30@40
+10.00 +10.00 20.00
U.S.D.A. 2008 crop world price milled - $ per cwt
Long grain
23.60
-0.99
-0.99 12.79
Medium/short
23.31
-0.96
-0.96 12.61
grain
23.31
-0.96
-0.96 12.59
Broken
15.88
-0.67
-0.67
8.61
C.B.O.T. rough rice futures - $ per cwt
November
14.31½
-0.85½
-0.73 12.69
January
14.27½
-0.91½ -1.00½ 12.97
March
14.55½
-0.92½
-1.04 13.29
May
14.84½
-0.92½ -1.04½ 13.56
Milling & Baking News

November 18, 2008 / 51

http://www.bakingbusiness.com http://www.world-grain.com

Milling & Baking News - November 18, 2008

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