Milling & Baking News - December 16, 2008 - 37

Ingredient Week

 Cash Wheat

HARD WINTER. Premiums on hard
red winter wheat in Kansas City were
unchanged to 40c a bu higher last week.
Gains were scattered across the protein
scale. Low-protein wheat advanced 2c
a bu. The 40c gain applied only to 14%
protein wheat, advances otherwise were
1@8c a bu. Light offers precluded a thorough test of the basis, but the week's activity suggested the rally in basis levels
may be slowing. Mills sought to keep
pipelines filled into the winter holidays,
but operations will be scaled back both
Christmas and New Year's weeks. Slack
demand from export elevators at the
Gulf ensured there was little competition
for mills for wheat offers.
Mills were able to purchase additional
wheat for January-March and even some
for April-May. The cash market was at a
narrow inverse December to January.
The U.S. Department of Agriculture
on Dec. 11 projected the carryover of
hard red winter wheat on June 1, 2009,
at 205 million bus, down 1 million from
the November forecast but up 67 million
from 138 million bus in 2008.
Wheat movement remained sluggish.
Producers seemed to be finished selling
wheat for the rest of the year. Should
they need additional income for Jan. 1,
they were as likely to sell fall crops as
wheat. With replacement wheat from the
producer difficult to procure, terminal
elevators rationed the supply they were
willing to load.
There were no impediments to rail
transportation. Snow fell across expanses of the Southwest but had no significant effect on shipments. Rail cars and
power were easily available as was the
case during the entire harvest season.
Freight costs were cheaper in December
as fuel surcharges were reduced.
Texas and South Dakota provided up-

No. 1 hard winter
Basis Kansas City March, cents per bu
Dec. 12
- Change from -
Premium Dec. 5
Nov. 28
Ordinary 20 @ 35 +2 @ +2 +2@ +2
11%
25 @ 40 +2 @ +2 +7@ +7
11.2% 30 @ 45 +7 @ +7 +12@ +12
11.4% 40 @ 55 +5 @ +5 +22@ +22
11.6% 45 @ 60
-
+15@ +15
11.8% 59 @ 74 +4 @ +4 +14@ +14
12%
65 @ 80
-
+18@ +18
12.2% 65 @ 80
-
+16@ +16
12.4% 68 @ 83 +3 @ +3 +17@ +17
12.6% 68 @ 83 +3 @ +3 +15@ +15
12.8% 68 @ 83 +1 @ +1 +7@ +7
13%
77 @ 92 +8 @ +8 +16@ +16
13.2% 77 @ 92 +2 @ +2 +16@ +16
13.4% 80 @ 95
-
+19@ +19
13.6% 85 @ 100
-
+24@ +24
13.8% 90 @ 105 +5 @ +5 +28@ +28
14% 125 @ 140 +40 @ +40 +61@ +61
bakingbusiness.com / world-grain.com

Year
ago
-9 @ 6
15 @ 30
25 @ 40
35 @ 50
39 @ 54
45 @ 60
49 @ 64
49 @ 64
53 @ 68
61 @ 76
67 @ 82
76 @ 91
79 @ 94
82 @ 97
85 @ 100
88 @ 103
91 @ 106

dates to their crop condition ratings. The
Texas Department of Agriculture rated
the Texas wheat crop as of Dec. 7 at 35%
good to excellent compared with 50% a
week earlier with the decline reflecting
dryness. "Wheat in the High Plains is in
need of moisture and growth has been
slow," the Texas crop progress report
stated. "Wheat in the Low Plains, Cross
Timbers and Blacklands suffered due to
dry conditions and was becoming a major
concern." South Dakota wheat was rated
64% good to excellent and 35% fair.
HARD SPRING. Premiums on hard
red spring wheat in Minneapolis posted
mixed and erratic changes. Premiums on
13%-protein wheat and on wheat with
14.5% protein and higher registered wide
gains, while the basis on middle-protein
supply weakened. Wheat movement remained sluggish, but demand seemed to
be waning toward the week's end. Mill
demand aimed at maintaining pipelines
through the end of the year, when wheat
sales were expected to be limited, gave
a boost to the basis in recent weeks, but
slackening export demand and anticipation of reduced mill grind during the
winter holidays removed some of the
market's edge.
Farmer selling remained light. There
were no indications producers would
step up the pace of wheat sales during
the last weeks of 2008. Should they seek
additional income before the end of the
year, they had the option of selling corn
and soybeans as well as wheat. Rail car

loading remained constrained by the lack
of replacement wheat from the producer.
Snow covered wide expanses across
the northern Plains, and more snow accompanied by frigid temperatures swept
into the region at the weekend.
Duluth export elevators loaded wheat
for the domestic market with the Great
Lakes shipping season ending.
The U.S.D.A. on Dec. 11 projected the
carryover of hard red spring wheat on
June 1, 2009, at 160 million bus, up 4 million from the November forecast and up
92 million from 68 million bus in 2008.
SOFT RED. Mill bids on soft red winter
wheat were unchanged to firmer. In Kansas City, No. 1 soft red bids advanced
10c a bu, to 142c under K.C. March to 42c
under. Gulf bids on soft red for nearby
rose 7c, to 43c under Chicago March. St.
Louis mill bids were 50c under Chicago
March. Chicago mill bids for nearby
were 110c under Chicago March. Mill
bids in Toledo were 150c under Chicago March; January-March, 140c under
March; new crop, 140c under July. Elevator bids were 143c under March. Cincinnati mill bids were 100c under Chicago
March. Elevator bids were 120c under
March, deferred pricing only. Michigan
white wheat mill bids were 125c under
Chicago March to 90c under.
The U.S.D.A. on Dec. 11 projected the
carryover of soft red winter wheat on
June 1, 2009, at 153 million bus, up 10
million from November and up 98 million from 55 million bus in 2008. MBN

No. 1 hard spring

Cash wheat

Milling quality, basis Minneapolis March, cents per bu
Dec. 12 - Change from -
Year
Premium
Dec. 5
Nov. 28
ago
Ordinary
...
...
...
...
11%
...
...
...
...
12%
25
...
...
...
13%
40 @ 45 +40@+40 +20 @ -5
65
13.5%
80
-25 @ -35
...
...
14%
150 @ 175 -20 @ -30
+5 @ +25 75 @ 85
14.5%
190
...
+15 @ -20
...
15%
300 @ 340 -10 @ +30 +50 @ +70
100
16%
...
...
...
...
17%
...
...
...
...

Exporter bids and offers
For
Dec. 12
shipment
Bid
Offer
No. 1 Hard 12%, Track Gulf
Basis Kansas City future, cents per bu
December
...
...
January
+72 March
...
February
+72 March
81
March
+75 March
85
No. 2 Soft Red, c.i.f. New Orleans
Basis Chicago future, cents per bu
December
-43 March -40
January
-43 March -35
February
-40 March -35
March
-40 March -35

Year ago
bid

...
...
...
+80 March

...
...
...
+40 March

Dec. 12 - Change from -
For shipment
Bid Dec. 5
Nov. 28
No. 1 Soft White, Track, Portland
$ per bu
Nearby
...
...
...
December
...
...
...
January
5.15
+.05
-.35
No. 1 Hard 11.5%, Track, Portland
Basis Kansas City future, $ per bu
Nearby
...
...
...
December
...
...
...
January
0.50
-
-
No. 1 Spring 14%, Track, Portland
Basis Minneapolis future, $ per bu
Nearby
1.85
-
...
December
1.85
-
+.10
January
1.85
-
+.10

Year
ago
...
...
12.55
...
...
1.15

1.30
1.30
1.35

Canadian domestic milling wheat
Change from Year
In-store, Thunder Bay,
Dec. 12
Dec. 5
ago
Canadian $ per tonne
Western red spring 13.5% 350.01 +20.73
434.21
Soft white spring
247.07
-5.49
497.25
Amber durum
457.53 -19.00
782.19
U.S. $ per bu
Western red spring 13.5%
7.65
0.95
11.66
Soft white spring
5.40
0.10
13.35
Amber durum
10.00
-
21.00
Milling & Baking News

December 16, 2008 / 37
http://www.bakingbusiness.com http://www.world-grain.com
Milling & Baking News - December 16, 2008

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