Milling & Baking News - December 16, 2008 - 39

Ingredient Week

 Soy Products

Soy flour sales were slow last week.
Buyers stayed on the sidelines as prices
advanced sharply, and demand for their
finished products was uncertain given
the general economic uncertainty. Most
buyers had first-quarter needs covered
but were reluctant to contract further into
2009, although there were exceptions.
Lead times for new orders held at two to
three weeks. Processors ran full but were
less pressed than in recent weeks.
Soy complex futures prices posted impressive gains last week, with soybean
meal prices up about 8%, soybeans up
9%, and soybean oil up more than 10%,
due in part to higher crude oil and equity prices, a weaker U.S. dollar and strong
exports.
The U.S. Department of Agriculture
in its Dec. 11 World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates projected the
carryover of U.S. soybeans on Sept. 1,
2009, at 205 million bu, unchanged from
November and from 2008 and just above
trade expectations. Also unchanged from
November was total supply at 3,133 million bus and total use at 2,927 million
bus. A 30-million-bu reduction in projected crushing, to 1,715 million bus, was
offset by a 30-million-bu increase in projected exports, to 1,050 million bus. The
average farm price of soybeans was projected to range from $8.25 to $9.75 a bu in
2008-09, down 85c from November and
compared with $10.10 a bu last year.
Net export sales of U.S. soybeans for
2008-09 during the week ended Dec. 4
were 809,800 tonnes, more than double
the previous week's marketing year low,
the U.S.D.A. said. However, net sales of
soybean meal for the week were a marketing year low of 18,500 tonnes. MBN

Chicago corn and soy futures
Corn Futures
$ per bu
December
March
May
July
September
December
Soybeans
January
March
May
July
August
September
Soybean Meal
December
January
March
May
July
August

+66
+64¼
+65½
+66½
+67¼
+68¾

+10
+7¾
+7½
+6¾
+6½
+6½

4.20
4.38¼
4.49¼
4.56½
4.52½
4.50½

+70½
+69
+71
+69¾
+70
+71½

-29
-34¾
-34¼
-33¼
-33
-32

11.57
11.75
11.88¾
11.90½
11.58
11.02

+18.00
+19.40
+19.20
+19.20
+19.00
+19.10

+2.50
+3.40
+1.60
+1.50
+1.10
+.70

324.50
325.90
332.10
335.20
332.50
319.00

bakingbusiness.com / world-grain.com

Corn meal prices surged last week.
Sales were steady. The sales mix was little changed with some mills still driven
by breakfast cereal manufacturers' demand for large flaking grits and others
reporting more balanced sales across all
grit sizes. Little additional contracting
was evident, although at least one buyer
locked in supply through the 2009 crop
year. Mills ran five to seven days.
After setting new contract lows the
previous week, corn futures prices staged
an impressive rally with prices up more
than 20% for the week in most months,
as support from higher crude oil and
equity prices a weaker dollar and ideas
of reduced plantings in 2009 more than
offset bearish supply/demand data.
The U.S. Department of Agriculture
projected U.S. corn carryover on Sept. 1,
2009, at 1,474 million bus, up 350 million
bus, or 31%, from 1,124 million bus in
November but down 150 million bus, or
9%, from 1,624 million bus this year. The
carryover number was above the high
end of trade expectations.
Total U.S. corn supply in 2008-09
was projected at 13,659 million bus, unchanged from November but down 739
million bus, or 5%, from 2007-08. Total
use was projected at 12,185 million bus,
down 350 million bus from November
and down 588 million bus, or 5%, from
2007-08. Feed and residual use was projected at 5,350 million bus, up 50 million
bus from November but down 624 million
bus, or 10%, from last year. Food and seed
use, at 1,335 million bus, was unchanged
from November. Projected exports were
reduced 100 million bus from November,
to 1,800 million bus, and were down 636
million bus, or 26%, from 2007-08.

The U.S.D.A. slashed projected corn
use for ethanol to 3,700 million bus, down
300 million bus from November but up
674 million bus, or 22%, from 2007-08.
The average corn price was projected
to range from $3.65 to $4.35 a bu in 200809, down 35@45c from November and
compared with $4.20 a bu last year.
Net export sales of corn for 2008-09 during the week ended Dec. 4 were 928,700
tonnes, more than double the previous
week's total, the U.S.D.A. said. MBN

 Oats

Bookings of food grade oat flakes remained slow last week. Prices held at
26-month lows although futures prices
rose. Oats mills were not as pressed to
fill orders as in previous months.
Australian oats production in 2008-09
was forecast by the Australian Bureau
of Agricultural and Resource Economics at 1,184,000 tonnes, up 40% from the
drought-reduced 2007-08 crop. Exports
were forecast at 226,000 tonnes, up 25%
from last year. MBN

 Rice

Milled rice and byproduct prices held
mostly steady last week. U.S. Department of Agriculture 2008 crop world
milled rice prices were unchanged.
Rough rice futures prices bounced
from one-year lows a week earlier and
moved higher last week with other commodities. Strong exports and friendly
U.S.D.A. report data added support.
The projected carryover of rice on Aug.
1, 2009, was 23.4 million cwts, down 2 million cwts from November, the U.S.D.A.
said. The average farm price was raised
65c to a range of $15.15@16.15 a cwt, which
compared with $12.80 in 2007-08. MBN

Soy products

- Change from - Year
Dec. 12 Dec. 5 Nov. 28 ago
3.59½
3.73½
3.84¾
3.95¼
4.05¾
4.20
$ per bu
8.54
8.56¼
8.65¾
8.74¾
8.77
8.76
$ per ton
258.50
257.70
257.00
259.50
262.20
263.40

 Corn Products

Defatted, f.o.b. Midwest plant, $ per cwt
- Change from -
Dec. 12
Dec. 5
Nov. 28
Soy flour
Bulk
18.37 @ 19.59 +1.33@+1.57 +.21 @ +.42
Sacked
19.37 @ 21.59 +1.33@+1.57 +.21 @ +.42

Rice
Offers f.o.b. mills, $ per cwt, bagged

- Change from - Year
Cash
Dec. 12
Dec. 5 Nov. 28 ago
Long grain
31.50@34.00
-
- 20.00
Medium grain 45.00@45.00
- +1.00 24.00
Parboiled
34.50@41.00
-
- 24.50
Second
Corn meal
heads, bulk
28
-
- 16.00
$ per cwt
25.00@28.00
-
- 14.00
- Change from - Brewers
Dec. 12
Dec. 5
Nov. 28 f.o.b. mills, $ per ton
Rice millfeed
62
-
-
...
Chicago, bulk 12.90@ 17.25 +1.28@+1.68 +.78@+1.05
Rice bran
120@135
-
- 105.00
Chicago, sacked 14.67@ 19.08 +1.28@+1.68 +.78@+1.05
Rice hulls
30
-
- 22.00
New York, bulk 14.57@ 18.98 +1.28@+1.68 +.78@+1.05
U.S.D.A. 2008 crop world price milled - $ per cwt
New York, sacked 16.99@ 21.37 +1.28@+1.68 +.78@+1.05
Long grain
23.60
-
- 13.76
Oats
Medium/short
23.31
-
-
...
- Change from - grain
Minneapolis
15.88
-
-
9.26
Dec. 12
Dec. 5 Nov. 28 Broken
C.B.O.T. rough rice futures - $ per cwt
Food grade flakes, f.o.b.,
January
14.89½ +0.76½ +1.68½ 13.13
bagged, $ per cwt
21.75@22.25 -
-25c
March
14.88½ +0.95½ +1.40½ 13.45
Milling quality oats, No. 2 heavy,
15.05½
+0.95 +1.37 13.69
$ per bu
2.13½
+14½c
+1½c May
July
15.18½
+0.89 +1.28 13.85
Oat hulls, $ per ton
25@35
-
-
Milling & Baking News

December 16, 2008 / 39
http://www.bakingbusiness.com http://www.world-grain.com
Milling & Baking News - December 16, 2008

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