Milling & Baking News - December 30, 2008 - 31

Ingredient Market Trends
Weekly Spotlight

Baking ingredient prices tumble in the
last half of 2008 but uncertainty abounds

Indexes
Shortbread Cookie Ingredients

Pasta Ingredients

Price Indicators
2
3
THIS LAST WEEKS WEEKS
WEEK WEEK AGO AGO
Pan-bread flour
Wheat futures,
K.C., March

Hard winter
premiums,
12.2% protein

Millfeed, K.C.,
30-day

Soybean oil
Cane sugar
Cocoa
/ world-grain.com
31 /bakingbusiness.com
July 3, 2007
Milling
& Baking News

rices of key agricultural commodities and baking ingredients
plunged from all-time highs in the
last half of 2008. While prices were expected to remain under pressure in the
next several months, the abrupt turnaround in the markets
created its own problems with many bakers and other ingredient buyers still holding contracts transacted when prices were
sharply higher. Millers
faced similar difficulties in relation to their
wheat purchases. It
will take time for bakers to run through remaining supplies purchased at the higher
prices. At the same
time, pressure mounted for lower retail pricing amid the economic
downturn.
Conditions this December could hardly
be more different than
those existing a year
ago, when wheat and
flour prices were advancing rapidly and
still were two months
from setting all-time
highs. Corn, soybeans and baking ingredients derived from those crops in December 2007 were more than six months
from setting their all-time highs in late
June and early July.
The average 2008 price of baker 's
standard patent flour through the
third week of December was around
$22.25 a cwt, up $5.55, or 33%, from
$16.70 during the same span in 2007,
as the recent 12-month average reflected the effect of the surge in wheat
prices that gripped markets through
most of the 2007-08 crop year. But
in the first three weeks of December
this year, the average price of Kansas
City pan bread flour was $14.75 a cwt,
down $8.95 a cwt, or 38%, from $23.70
in December 2007.
Semolina prices in 2008 (through Dec.
19) averaged $40.40 a cwt, up $14.50 a
cwt, or 56%, from an average 2007 price

of around $25.90, but the December 2008
price of semolina for spot-quick delivery
averaged $23.90 a cwt, down $23.90 a
cwt, or 50%, from $47.80 a year earlier.
In contrast with wheat prices, soybean oil prices didn't reach their alltime peak of more
than 66c a lb, Decatur,
until July 2008 and
tumbled only after
fall crop prospects
were more certain.
The average soybean oil price in 2008
(through Dec. 19) was
around 50.2c a lb, up
15.9c, or 46%, from
34.3c as the 2007 average price. The Dec.
19, 2008, soybean oil
price was 29c a lb
compared with 45.3c
a lb a year earlier.
Palm oil prices in
2008 averaged 53.9c
a lb, up 14.2c, or 36%,
from 39.7c a lb in 2007.
The Dec. 19, 2008,
palm oil price was 31c
a lb compared with
48c a year earlier. Cottonseed oil prices averaged 69c a lb in 2008,
up 25.9c, or 60%, from
43.1c in 2007. The Dec.
19, 2008, cottonseed oil price was 32.5c
per lb compared with 66.8c per lb a year
ago. Corn oil prices averaged 68.7c per lb
in 2008, up 27.7c, or 68%, from 41c as the
2007 average. The Dec. 19 corn oil price
was 32.8c per lb compared with 60.3c per
lb a year earlier. Canola oil prices in 2008
averaged 62c a lb, up 16.9c, or 37%, from
45.1c per lb in 2007. The Dec. 19 canola oil
price was 37c a lb compared with 65.3c a
lb a year earlier.
Corn meal prices (Chicago) in 2008
averaged around $20.50 a cwt, up
$4.25, or 21%, from $16.25 a cwt in
2007. The Dec. 21, 2008, corn meal
price was $17.87 a cwt compared with
$17.90 a year earlier.
Bulk soy flour prices in 2008 averaged
$22.55 a cwt, up $5.65, or 33%, from
$16.90 in 2007. The Dec. 19, 2008, soy
flour price was $20.10 a cwt compared
with $22.25 a year ago. MBN
Milling & bakingbusiness.com
Baking News
December
30, 2008 / 31
/ world-grain.com

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Milling & Baking News - December 30, 2008

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