Milling & Baking News - February 24, 2009 - 18

Data

U.S. flour output down 0.6% in
'08, still third largest on record
Continued from Page 1

largest year-to-year gain since 1993,
or in 14 years. It was almost twice the
gain of 8,418,000 in 2006 over 2005
and much more than the increase of
1,048,000 in 2005. It contrasts with
a decrease of 2,290,000 in 2004 from
2003. An increase of 1,515,000 occurred
in 2003.
The 15,445,000-cwt increase in 2007
was the seventh-largest annual gain.
The largest was 31 million cwts in

of 20,680,000 cwts in 1983 to the decrease of 16,749,000 cwts in 2001.
Since the start of Census Bureau compilations in 1926, output has increased
in 53 years and decreased in 29. For the
entire period, production has risen at an
annual average rate of 2,507,723 cwts.
As noted above, the sharpest increase
was 31 million cwts in 1945 to supply
post-World War II relief shipments to
war-ravaged nations. The largest decrease was 44,782,000 cwts in 1949, as

Census Bureau compilation on quarterly production of flour,
grind of wheat, millfeed output on six-day weekly basis

Oct-Dec-08
Jul-Sep-08
Apr-Jun-08
Jan-Mar-08

104,501
108,278
101,887
101,618

225,117
234,873
223,018
223,495

1,636,415
1,760,317
1,692,379
1,667,033

1,523
1,543
1,548
1,540

1,357
1,406
1,323
1,320

89.1%
91.1%
85.5%
85.7%

77.4%
76.8%
76.1%
75.8%

Oct-Dec-07
Jul-Sep-07
Apr-Jun-07
Jan-Mar-07

107,063
109,017
102,501
100,255

236,285
239,315
226,149
222,007

1,784,596
1,869,622
1,750,026
1,698,633

1,535
1,535
1,530
1,529

1,390
1,434
1,331
1,302

90.6%
93.4%
87.0%
85.2%

75.5%
75.9%
75.5%
75.3%

Oct-Dec-06
Jul-Sep-06
Apr-Jun-06
Jan-Mar-06

102,460
104,859
97,969
98,103

227,965
233,339
217,113
216,110

1,721,445
1,786,927
1,702,838
1,704,954

1,506
1,501
1,499
1,499

1,348
1,362
1,272
1,291

89.5%
90.7%
84.9%
86.1%

74.9%
74.9%
75.2%
75.7%

Oct-Dec-05
Jul-Sep-05
Apr-Jun-05
Jan-Mar-05

100,346
102,477
96,240
95,910

223,371
229,318
216,495
214,917

1,739,599
1,784,424
1,648,397
1,653,888

1,492
1,492
1,494
1,493

1,303
1,331
1,250
1,262

87.3%
89.2%
83.7%
84.5%

74.9%
74.5%
74.1%
74.4%

'05

'06

'08

Millfeed,
tons

Average
Per
Daily
flour
Per
cent
capacity, per work cent extraction
cwts day, cwts operated rate
-(1,000)-

'07

Flour
Wheat
production, ground,
cwts
bus
-(1,000)-

1945 in response to a surge in postWorld War II relief shipments. These
increases were overshadowed by output drops of 9,821,000 cwts in 2002 and
16,749,000 in 2001. The latter was the
largest setback since 1949 when U.S.
flour production plunged 44,782,000
cwts with the sudden halt of relief
shipments to Europe.
At the same time, the three successive years of increases through 2007
represented the first time this has happened since 1991-94 when flour output
rose in four successive years, ranging
from 5,100,000 in 1994 to 16,590,000 in
1993.
Starting with the period beginning
in 1970, flour production by U.S. mills
has increased in 27 years and decreased in 12. In this same period, annual changes ranged from an increase
18 / February 24, 2009

Milling & Baking News

these relief shipments ended.
Production of wheat flour in 2007
included durum semolina output of
30,921,000 cwts, the Census Bureau
said. This was down 1,883,000, or
5.7%, from 32,804,000 cwts in 2007.
Given that the total flour reduction for
2008 from 2007 was 2,552,000, semolina accounted for a major share, actually 73.8%, of that decrease.
Flour
production-ex-semolina
in 2008 decreased 669,000 cwts, or
0.2%, to 385,363,000, compared with
386,032,000 in 2007. It was up 3.7%
from 371,443,000 in 2006, up 5.8%
from 364,135,000 in 2005 and 5% over
366,966,000 in 2004. The current total
also was 5.1% above 366,524,000 in
2003, and 6.4% above 362,289,000 in
2002. It was up 3.7% from 371,591,000
in 2001 but down 1.1% from the record

in 2000 of 389,521,000 cwts. It also was
0.1% less than 385,882,000 in 1999 although data for the latter year are not
strictly comparable because of a new
definition of what was a durum mill
effective in 2000.
The Census Bureau in 1998 discontinued monthly flour production reports,
which had been compiled since 1926,
in favor of quarterly data. This was the
most important change in the compilations since 1981, when the Census Bureau
made major revisions in its monthly and
annual reports. Data on rate of grind, average flour production per working day
and extraction were discontinued. This
prompted Milling & Baking News to calculate these measures based on statistics
provided by the Census Bureau.
Milling & Baking News elected to
base its computations of milling operations and average production per
working day on a six-day workweek,
whereas since 1950 the Census Bureau
had based these compilations on a
five-day week.
By quarters, output in 2008 ranged
from 108,278,000 in July-September to
101,618,000 in January-March, while
the variation in 2007 was between
109,017,000 cwts in the third quarter
and 100,255,000 cwts in the first.
Average monthly production of
flour in 2008 was 34,690,000 cwts,
down slightly from 34,903,000 in 2007.
Average production of flour per
working day in 2008 was computed
at 1,352,000 cwts, against 1,364,000 in
2007. The daily average compared with
1,318,000 in 2006, 1,287,000 in 2005.
1,279,000 in 2004, 1,291,000 in 2003,
1,285,000 in 2002 and 1,318,000 in 2001.
The record daily average was 1,372,000
cwts in 2000, followed by 1,364,000 in
2007 and 1,352,000 in 2008.
These averages reflect a simple arithmetic average of the quarterly computations. By quarters, flour output
per working day in 2008 ranged from
1,406,000 cwts in the third quarter to
1,320,000 in the first, while the variation in 2007 was between 1,434,000
cwts in the third quarter and 1,302,000
in the first.
The daily average in 2008 was based
on 308 days, up from 307 days in 2007,
306 days in 2006, and 307 in 2005 but
unchanged from 308 in 2004. The missing day in 2006 with 307 the norm reflects the fact that the year began and
ended on Sunday. The extra day in 2008
and 2004 was Leap Year's Feb. 29.
Capacity at 1,523,000 cwts
The Census Bureau estimated
the 24-hour capacity of U.S. mills in
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Milling & Baking News - February 24, 2009

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