Milling & Baking News - March 10, 2009 - 20

Data

Outlook: Wheat production to drop
15%, but supplies flat, stocks higher
WASHINGTON - William Chambers, an economist with the Economic
Research Service of the U.S. Department of Agriculture, speaking at the
U.S.D.A. 2009 outlook forum on Feb.
27, forecast production of wheat in the
United States this year at 2,120 million
bus, down 15% from 2,500 million
bus in 2008. Mr. Chambers, speaking
on behalf of the department's interagency commodity estimates committee for grains and oilseeds, said
wheat supplies during the 2009-10
marketing year should be down only
1% from the current year and endings
stocks should be up slightly from the
655 million bus forecast for 2008-09,
primarily because of lower foreign
demand for U.S. supply.
The smaller wheat crop forecast
for 2009 was attributed to smaller
planted and harvested areas for
wheat and a return to trend yields
compared with last year 's record
44.9 bus per acre.
Area planted to wheat for harvest this summer was projected at

58 million acres, down 5.1 million
acres from 2008. Winter wheat area
seeded last fall for harvest this summer was down 4.2 million acres from
2008 and spring wheat plantings
(including durum) were expected to
decline 900,000 acres, or 5%, from a
year ago, Mr. Chambers said.
Soft red winter wheat seeded area
was down 2.9 million acres, or 26%,
from last year 's 12-year high as
lower cash prices and late row crop
harvesting limited seedings last
fall. Hard red winter wheat seeded
area was down 1.1 million acres,
or 4%, from 2008 because of lower
prices and delays in fall harvesting
in the central Plains. In the northern
Plains, spring wheat area was expected to decline as producers plant
more soybeans.
Harvested area for 2009 was projected at 49.3 million acres based on the
five-year average harvested-to-planted
ratio of 0.85, Mr. Chambers said. This
was down from 0.88 in 2008 when high
prices and better-than-average weather

Wheat supply, demand and price
2009-102

2008-091

2007-08

2006-07

Area planted (mil acres)
Area harvested

58.0
49.3

63.1
55.7

60.5
51.0

57.3
46.8

Yield (bu/acres)

43.0

44.9

40.2

38.6

Production (mil bus)

2,123

2,500

2,051

1,808

Beginning stocks
Imports
Supply

655
105
2,880

306
110
2,915

456
113
2,620

571
122
2,501

Feed and residual
Food, seed and industrial
Total domestic use

230
1,036
1,266

230
1,030
1,260

15
1,035
1,050

117
1,020
1,137

950

1,000

1,264

908

2,216

2,260

2,314

2,045

664

655

306

456

30.0%

29.0%

13.2%

22.3%

$5.15

$6.80

$6.48

$4.26

Exports
Total use
Ending stocks
Stocks/use (per cent)
Season - average farm price ($ per bu)
1

Acreage, yield, production and beginning stocks are estimates from the National Agricultural
Statistics Service. Imports, use, ending stocks and season average farm price are projections for
the World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates, Feb. 10, 2009. The season-average price
is the midpoint of the projected range from the same report.
2

Projections based on analysis by the Wheat Interagency Commodity Estimates Committee.
Note: Totals may not add due to rounding.

20 / March 10, 2009

Milling & Baking News

reduced abandonment to its lowest
level in 10 years. The national average
wheat yield in 2009 was projected at 43
bus per acre based on a simple trend in
national average yields for 1985-2008.
The forecast was down 1.9 bus per acre
from last year's record.
Production was expected to fall in
2009 for all classes of wheat except
white wheat, Mr. Chambers said.
Lower area and yields were expected to reduce production of hard red
winter wheat and soft red winter
wheat. Hard red spring wheat area
and yields also were projected lower. Durum production should fall as
lower forecast area offsets a recovery in yields, particularly for Montana. White wheat production was
expected to increase modestly with
smaller winter seeded area in the
Pacific Northwest more than offset
by a rebound to trend yields.
Mr. Chambers projected the carryover of wheat in the U.S. on June
1, 2010, at 664 million bus, up 9 million bus from the forecast for 2008 at
655 million bus and compared with
the 60-year low of 306 million bus
in 2007. The U.S. stocks-to-use ratio
in 2009-10 was projected at 30%, up
1 percentage point from the forecast
for the current year and the highest
since 36% in 2001-02.
Wheat supplies for the upcoming
year were projected at 2,880 million
bus, down 35 million bus from 200809, based on projections for a carryin of 655 million bus, production of
2,120 million bus and imports of 105
million bus.
Wheat disappearance in the 200910 crop year was projected at 2,216
million bus, down 44 million bus
from forecast 2008-09 use of 2,260
million bus.
Food, seed and industrial use of
wheat in 2009-10 was projected at
1,036 million bus, up 6 million bus
from the forecast for 2008-09 and
compared with 1,035 million bus in
2007-08.
"Food use of wheat is expected
up 5 million bus from the 2008-09
forecast," Mr. Chambers commented. "The projected 955 million bus
for 2009-10 assumes a population
growth rate of just less than 1%, a
lower per capita flour consumption
than projected for 2008-09, and a
flour extraction rate that reflects both
the extremely high extraction rate for
carry-in stocks from the 2008 crop
and the expectation for an average
extraction rate for the 2009 crop.
"The very high extraction rate
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Milling & Baking News - March 10, 2009

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