Milling & Baking News - March 10, 2009 - 22

Data

for 2008 crop wheat has reduced
the bushels needed to meet 2008-09
flour demand, and bushels carried
forward from this same crop will reduce the number of bushels ground
in 2009-10."
Mr. Chambers projected feed and
residual use of wheat in 2009-10 at
230 million bus, unchanged from the
forecast for 2008-09 and compared
with 15 million bus in the extraordinary year 2007-08, when prices were
record high and supplies the tightest

since shortly after World War II.
"Although reduced exports for
2009-10 provide opportunities to
shift more wheat into feedlots,
wheat prices are expected to remain
relatively strong compared with
corn, limiting actual wheat feeding," Mr. Chambers said.
U.S. wheat exports in 2009-10 were
projected at 950 million bus, down
50 million from the forecast outgo
for the current year and compared
with the recent high of 1,264 million

2009 Outlook: Corn area and production
little changed, new records for soybeans
WASHINGTON - Corn plantings
and production in 2009 shouldn't
be much different from 2008, but
soybean plantings and production
should set new records, William
Chambers, an economist with the
Economic Research Service of the
U.S. Department of Agriculture,
told those attending the grains and
oilseeds session of the U.S.D.A. Agricultural Outlook Forum on Feb.
27. Mr. Chambers presented forecasts for 2009-10 prepared by the
U.S.D.A.'s wheat, feed grains, rice
and oilseeds interagency commodity estimates committees.
Mr. Chambers projected corn
plantings in 2009 at 86 million acres,
unchanged from 2008. While falling well short of record plantings of
93.5 million acres in 2007, the corn
planted area projected for this year
compared with average seedings of
around 79 million acres during the
1990s and early 2000s.
Corn production in 2009 was
projected at 12,365 million bus, up
4% from 12,101 million bus in 2008.

It would be the second-largest corn
crop produced in the United States.
The largest crop at 13,038 million
bus was harvested in 2007.
The production forecast was based
on a projected harvest area of 78.8
million acres and an average yield
of 156.9 bus per acre. The projected
yield was based on a simple trend
of national average yields for 19902008 and would be the second highest on record after the 2004 yield of
160 bus per acre.
The U.S. corn supply in 2009-10
was projected at 14,170 million bus
based on a forecast carry-in of 1,790
million bus, production of 12,365
million bus and imports of 15 million bus. The projected supply for
2009-10 was up 3% from the 13,740
million bus estimated for 2008-09.
Total corn disappearance in 200910 was projected at 12,450 million bus, up 4% from the forecast
11,950 million tonnes in the current
year. Mr. Chambers said the rise in
projected ethanol use and exports
was expected to be only partly

bus in 2007-08. Mr. Chambers said
large carryover stocks in most competitor nations will limit demand
for U.S. supply as the harvest begins
in the Northern Hemisphere.
The 2009-10 average farm price
of wheat was projected at $5.15 per
bu, down $1.65 per bu from the midpoint of the current 2008-09 projection.
The U.S.D.A.'s first official supply-and-use projections for wheat in
2009-10 will be issued May 12. MBN
offset by lower feed and residual
use.
Domestic use of corn in 2009-10
was projected at a record 10,600
million bus, up 400 million bus from
2008-09.
Use of corn in manufacturing
ethanol in 2009-10 was projected
at 4,100 million bus, up from 3,600
million bus forecast for the current
year and 3,026 million bus in 200708. At the projected level, ethanol
production would account for 33%
of total corn use in 2009-10, up from
a forecast 30% in 2008-09.
Food, seed and industrial (other
than ethanol) use of corn in 2009-10
was projected at 1,300 million bus,
unchanged from the forecast for the
current year and down 37 million
bus from 2007-08.
"Corn use for food is expected to
increase only slightly," Mr. Chambers said.
Feed and residual use of corn in
2009-10 was projected at 5,200 million bus, down 100 million bus
from the forecast for 2008-09 and
compared with 5,938 million bus in
2007-08. Mr. Chambers commented,
"Animal numbers are expected to
Continued on Page 25

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