Milling & Baking News - March 10, 2009 - 26

Data

was projected at 13.8% compared
with 15% forecast for 2008-09.
The national average farm price
of corn in 2009-10 was projected at
$3.60 a bu, down 30c from the midpoint of the forecast range for the
current year and compared with
$4.20 in 2007-08.
Soybeans forecast at record
Soybean plantings in 2009 were
projected at a record 77 million acres,
up 1.3 million acres from 2008.
"Increased area is expected to
come from reduced wheat, cotton

yield was projected at 42.6 bus per
acre. The yield forecast was based
on the U.S. trend yield from 1989 to
2007.
Domestic soybean disappearance
in 2009-10 was projected at 1,848
million bus, up 2% from the current
year. Domestic soybean crush was
projected at 1,675 million bus, also
up 2% from 2008-09.
"With the exception of 2008-09,
this would be the lowest crush since
the 2003-04 marketing year," Mr.
Chambers said. "The expected increase is driven mostly by higher

Soybeans supply, demand and price
2009-102

2008-091

2007-08

2006-07

Area planted (mil acres)
Area harvested

77.0
76.0

75.7
74.6

64.7
64.1

75.5
74.6

Yield (bu/acres)

42.6

39.6

41.7

42.9

Production (mil bus)

3,240

2,959

2,677

3,197

Beginning stocks
Imports
Supply

210
3
3,453

205
9
3,173

574
10
3,261

449
9
1,965

Crush
Seed and residual
Total domestic use

1,675
172
1,848

1,650
163
1,813

1,801
93
1,895

1,808
157
1,965

Exports

1,225

1,150

1,161

1,116

Total use

3,073

2,963

3,056

3,081

380

210

205

574

12.4%

7.1%

6.7%

18.6%

$8.00

$9.25

$10.10

$6.43

Ending stocks
Stocks/use (per cent)
Season - average farm price ($ per bu)
1

Acreage, yield, production and beginning stocks are estimates from the National Agricultural
Statistics Service. Imports, use, ending stocks and season average farm price are projections for
the World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates, Feb. 10, 2009. The season-average price
is the midpoint of the projected range from the same report.
2

Projections based on analysis by the Wheat Interagency Commodity Estimates Committee.
Note: Totals may not add due to rounding.

and peanut plantings," Mr. Chambers said. "However, expansion for
soybeans is limited by lower double-cropping resulting from lower
soybean prices and reduced soft red
winter wheat plantings in the Delta
and the eastern Corn Belt."
Soybean production was projected
at a record 3,240 million bus, up 9%
from 2008-09 because of increased
area and a rebound in average yield.
Harvested area was projected at a
record 76 million acres, and average
26 / March 10, 2009

Milling & Baking News

projected soybean meal exports
as U.S. crushers take advantage of
drought-reduced supplies in Argentina during the first half of the marketing year."
Mr. Chambers added, "Minimal
expansion in livestock herds and
poultry flocks expected in 2009-10
along with increased use of corn
byproducts in rations will limit
projected gains in domestic soybean meal disappearance to a modest 0.8% for 2009-10. However, the

gains for 2009-10 come after sharp
losses in 2008-09 (down 7% from
2007-08), so projected domestic disappearance for 2009-10 would be
the second lowest in 10 years."
Soybean meal prices in 2009-10
were projected to average $250 per
ton, down from $285 as the midpoint of the forecast 2008-09 range.
U.S. consumption of soybean oil
was projected to drop 1% in 2009-10
to 17.4 billion lbs.
"After several years of rapid
growth, U.S. biodiesel production
from soybean oil has leveled off at
16% of domestic soybean oil disappearance in 2008-09," Mr. Chambers said. "Relatively high soybean
oil prices and a trend toward using
other fats and oils for feedstock are
expected to leave soybean oil used
for biodiesel at 2.9 billion lbs for
2009-10, unchanged from 2008-09,
despite an increase in the biodiesel
mandate from 500 million gallons in
calendar year 2009 to 650 million in
2010.
"Soybean oil used for domestic
food consumption is projected to
decline in 2009-10 as manufacturers
continue to replace soybean oil with
other oils. This would be the fifth
consecutive annual decline in food
use of soybean oil for a 15% reduction since 2004-05."
Oil prices projected lower
Soybean oil prices in 2009-10 were
projected at 31c a lb, down 1.5c from
the midpoint of the range projected
for the current year.
U.S. soybean exports were projected at a record 1,225 million bus,
up 7% from the outgo of 1,150 million bus forecast for 2008-09. The
projected increase in U.S. exports
was attributed to lower exportable
supply in South America.
"China once again will shape the
demand side of the international
soybean market, accounting for
nearly half of world trade," Mr.
Chambers said. "Thus, the growth
of livestock production in China
will be a pivotal factor in the global
use of soybeans."
The U.S. carryover of soybeans on
Sept. 1, 2010, was projected at 380
million bus, up 81% from the 210
million bus forecast for 2009. The
season average price of soybeans
in 2009-10 was projected at $8 a bu,
down from $9.25 as the midpoint
of the forecast range for the current
year and compared with $10.10 in
2007-08. MBN
bakingbusiness.com / world-grain.com

http://www.bakingbusiness.com http://www.world-grain.com

Milling & Baking News - March 10, 2009

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