Milling & Baking News - March 10, 2009 - 49

Ingredient Week

 Wheat Futures

Prices of wheat futures continued their
slide early last week, rallied at midweek,
dropped back on Thursday but finished
stronger into the weekend. With all its
ups and downs, the wheat futures market in general was weak with contract
prices about half those of a year ago. At
the same time, even given the breathtaking plunge from record prices of winter
2008, prices remained historically high.
U.S. wheat stocks were vastly improved
from last year and more than ample to
meet demand, but world wheat stocks,
while recovering from 30-year lows seen
at the end of 2007-08, remained historically tight. World stocks in 2009-10 were
forecast to rise further, should weather
cooperate, and this could push prices
lower in coming months.
A private company projected world
wheat production in 2009-10 at 663 million tonnes, down from a record 683 million tonnes in the current year. The previous record was 626 million tonnes in 200405. The private forecast compared with
the recent International Grains Council
forecast of 650 million tonnes. The U.S.
Department of Agriculture will release its
initial forecasts for U.S. and world 200910 wheat production in May.
Wheat supply/demand fundamentals

as often as not in recent weeks took a
backseat to trends in the general economy. Further sharp declines in equity markets and slowing in the U.S. and world
economies pressured values of nearly all
commodities.
The strengthening of the U.S. dollar
kept U.S. wheat at a disadvantage in
competing for a share of major world
wheat tenders. The U.S. dollar hit threeyear highs last week. The U.S.D.A. indicated net export sales of U.S. wheat for
2008-09 during the week ended Feb. 26
totaled 285,200 tonnes, down 39% from
the previous week and down 30% from
the recent four week average. Net sales
for 2009-10 totaled 22,500 tonnes.
While most fundamental factors argued for lower wheat prices, concerns
about dry conditions across the southern
Plains, particularly in Texas and Oklahoma, provided support. MBN

 Millfeed

Millfeed prices continued to slide last
week with losses of at least $10 a ton in
the spot position in all regions except the
West coast. Price changes in deferred positions were minor, ranging mostly from
unchanged to $5 lower.
While nearby values in most regions
slid in an orderly day-to-day manner,

Wheat futures

Kansas City wheat futures
May contract, $ per bu

$ per bu; change in cents per bu
- Change from -
Feb. 27 Feb. 20

Week's
High
Low

5.68
5.74
5.81¼
5.91

+16c
+14c
+13½c
+13¼c

+11¾c
+10½c
+8¼c
+7¾c

5.68
5.78¾
5.86
5.95¼

5.16¼
5.27
5.38¾
5.63

+5¾c
+5½c
+5½c
+4¾c

-3c
-3½c
-3½c
-2c

6.31
6.13
6.05
6.09¾

+5c
+6¾c
+5c
+7½c

+6¼c
+7¾c
+8¼c
+8¼c

March 6
Kansas City
March
May
July
September
Chicago
March
May
July
September
Minneapolis
March
May
July
September

prices in the Southwest whipsawed as
much as $10 in either direction before
ending about $15 lower for the week,
and down about $50 in two weeks. The
"correction" to nearby prices in most regions narrowed the uncommonly wide
premium to April to $10@20 and to MayJune to $15@25 from as much as $45@60
two weeks earlier. Again the exception
was the West coast, where prices were
nearly flat across all delivery periods.
Weak end-user demand continued to
pressure prices, along with ideas demand could fall even more as pastures
green going into spring. Adding to the
pressure in some regions during the past
two weeks were increases in flour grind
in some regions and anticipation of seasonally heavier grind in April and later
months. Significant downtime at a major
mill in the Southwest could offset some
pressure toward the end of March.
Weakness in the economy continued to
cast bearish uncertainty over the market.
Wheat germ prices were unchanged
with little activity evident.
Bulk middlings were $75 a ton in K.C.
and $82 in Minneapolis compared with
corn at $124 a ton and sorghum at $94,
both at K.C. Corn gluten feed was $115 a
ton, distillers' dried grain was $130 a ton
and dehydrated alfalfa was $242 a ton. MBN

Season's
Low

Year
ago

High

5.37
5.41½
5.48½
5.59½

11.45
11.69
11.30
11.27½

12.75
12.55
11.35
11.25

(03-13-08)
(03-13-08)
(03-12-08)
(03-12-08)

4.78
5.13
4.60
5.41

(04-30-07)
(12-05-08)
(03-02-07)
(12-04-08)

5.21½
5.33
5.45
5.66

4.90¼
4.99
5.12½
5.39

10.92½
11.05
10.68½
10.78½

12.75
11.90
11.40¾
11.26

(10-13-08)
(03-13-08)
(03-12-08)
(03-12-08)

4.71
4.87
4.47
5.39

(12-05-08)
(12-05-08)
(10-20-06)
(03-03-09)

6.37¼
6.20
6.12
6.15½

6.08¼
5.87½
5.80¼
5.82½

16
13.19¾
11.74½
11.22¼

13.00
12.50
12.20
11.17

(02-26-08)
(02-26-08)
(03-12-08)
(03-10-08)

5.19
5.52¼
5.58½
5.60

(04-18-07)
(12-05-08)
(12-05-08)
(12-01-08)

Chicago wheat futures
May contract, $ per bu

Bulk middlings
$ per ton, delivered rail unless noted
Spot
Kansas City
75 @ 80
Southwest, f.o.b. truck
85 @ 90
Minneapolis
82 @ 88
Upper Midwest, f.o.b. truck 78 @ 84
Chicago West
95 @ 101
Central states, f.o.b truck 78 @ 85
Buffalo
75 @ 85
Southeast
65 @ 70
N. & S. California
115 @ 125
Los Angeles, f.o.b. truck 111 @ 121
Pacific Northwest
120 @ 130
Upper Midwest, sacked
255
Wheat germ
215 @ 235
50 / March 10, 2009

March
73 @ 78
85 @ 90
80 @ 86
76 @ 82
93 @ 99
78 @ 85
75 @ 85
60 @ 65
115@ 125
111@ 121
120@ 130

Milling & Baking News

- Change from - Year
Feb. 27
Feb. 20
ago
April
-17 @ -16 -52@ -52 144@ 149 58 @ 63
-35 @ -35 -58@ -58 150@ 155 75 @ 80
-5 @ -6 -29@ -28 126@ 134 60 @ 66
-5 @ -6 -29@ -28 122@ 130 56 @ 62
-5 @ -6 -29@ -28 139@ 147 73 @ 79
-17 @ -20 -39@ -37 155@ 160 64 @ 71
-25 @ -20 -45@ -45 135@ 145 65 @ 70
-20 @ -25 -40@ -45 150@ 156 60 @ 65
-2 @ -2
-5@ -5 177@ 192 117 @ 127
-2 @ -2
-5@ -5 173@ 188 113 @ 123
-5 @ -5
-5@ -5 175@ 195 115 @ 125

May-June
51@ 56
65@ 70
58@ 64
54@ 60
71@ 77
58@ 65
60@ 65
55@ 60
119@ 129
115@ 125
115@ 125

July-Sept.
61 @ 66
75 @ 80
64 @ 70
60 @ 66
77 @ 83
63 @ 70
60 @ 65
55 @ 60
114 @ 124
110 @ 120
115 @ 125

Minneapolis wheat futures
May contract, $ per bu

bakingbusiness.com / world-grain.com
http://www.bakingbusiness.com http://www.world-grain.com
Milling & Baking News - March 10, 2009

Table of Contents for the Digital Edition of Milling & Baking News - March 10, 2009
