Milling & Baking News - April 7, 2009 - 16

Data

plantings. Fertilizer application was
good. The region saw record wheat
yields in 2008, which exceeded recent
average yields in each of the states by 5
or even 6 bus per acre. Mr. Blume foresaw a return to five-year average yields
across the region this season.
At 4,819,200 bus, Mr. Blume projected Delaware outturn down 21% from
6,083,000 bus in 2008. The Maryland
crop was forecast at 10,980,900 bus,
down 16% from 13,140,000 bus in 2008.
Mr. Blume projected the New Jersey
crop at 1,478,700 bus, down 27% from
2,013,000 bus in 2008.
Mr. Blume projected the soft red winter wheat crop in New York at 4,548,960
bus, up 74% from 2,613,000 bus in 2008.
A significant production increase was
forecast despite a smaller overall winter wheat area in the state because soft
red winter wheat in recent years steadily increased its share of the state's winter wheat area and production at the
expense of soft white wheat.
"I go with an 80-20 split, with 80%
of acreage and production being soft
red winter wheat and 20% of acreage and production being soft white

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winter," Mr. Blume said of his New
York forecasts. He pointed to similar
trends for soft red winter wheat area
to expand at the expense of soft white
winter wheat in Michigan and Ontario. The U.S.D.A. indicated 34% of the
2008 winter wheat area in New York
was soft red winter wheat and 63%
was soft white winter wheat with the
remainder hard red winter wheat.
Mr. Blume projected winter wheat
harvested acres in New York at 105,300
(84,240 acres of soft red and 21,060 acres
of soft white winter) and average yield
of all winter wheat at 54 bus per acre.
He projected the New York soft white
winter wheat crop at 1,137,000 bus,
down 77% from 4,842,000 bus in 2008.
In Pennsylvania, Mr. Blume projected the soft red winter wheat crop
at 10,026,500 bus, down 15% from
11,840,000 bus a year ago.
Carl Schwinke, vice-president, grain
supply, Siemer Milling Co., Teutopolis, Ill., projected soft red winter wheat
production in the Midwest states of
Illinois, Kentucky and Missouri at
110,354,000 bus, down 45,352,000 bus,
or 29%, from 155,706,000 bus in 2008.

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Mr. Schwinke said planted area was
down in each of the three states, with
decreases of 29% in Illinois, 16% in
Kentucky and 36% in Missouri. Planting was late during the fall because of
the delayed completion of the corn and
soybean harvests. Illinois wheat condition as the crop approached dormancy
last fall was 78% good to excellent compared with a March 20 rating of 55%.
It was a cold winter and some areas
had no snow cover during the coldest
periods, but there was good root development, and indications were winterkill was minimal in the region, Mr.
Schwinke said. Ice covered some fields
for awhile but it melted quickly. Most
of the wheat emerged from dormancy
in good shape. Nitrogen applications
have been made.
"We have a green, lush carpet
in wheat fields at this point," Mr.
Schwinke commented.
There was very little disease or
aphid pressure on the crop to date. Mr.
Schwinke suggested the cold winter
helped control the aphid population.
Mr. Schwinke projected Illinois
soft red winter wheat production at

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16 / April 7, 2009

Milling & Baking News

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