Milling & Baking News - May 19, 2009 - 41

Data

Winter wheat crop production
forecast off 20% from 2008
WASHINGTON - The National Agricultural Statistics Service of the U.S.
Department of Agriculture on May
12 projected winter wheat production in the United States in 2009 at
1,502,074,000 bus, down 365,829,000
bus, or 20%, from 1,867,903,000 bus in
2008. The winter wheat forecast was
the department's first of the season
and reflected conditions prevailing on
May 1. The forecast fell slightly below
the average of pre-report trade estimates at around 1,526 million bus.
The 2008 winter wheat crop was
the largest since 1998. The recent fiveyear average winter wheat outturn
(2004-08) was 1,531 million bus. The

2009 crop was forecast to be slightly
larger than those harvested in 2004,
2005 and 2007.
Harvested area of winter wheat
in 2009 was projected at 33,995,000
acres, down 14% from 39,614,000
acres in 2008, and average yield was
projected at 44.2 bus per acre, down 3
bus per acre from 47.2 bus per acre a
year ago. The 2008 average yield was
the second highest on record after
47.8 bus per acre in 1998.
The U.S.D.A. projected hard red
winter wheat production in 2009 at
871,394,000 bus, down 163,841,000
bus, or 16%, from 1,035,235,000 bus
in 2008. The department forecast

soft red winter wheat production at
422,313,000 bus, down 191,265,000
bus, or 31%, from 613,578,000 bus in
2008.
White winter wheat production
was projected at 208,367,000 bus,
down 10,723,000 bus, or 5%, from
219,090,000 bus a year ago. Hard
white winter wheat production was
projected at 20,764,000 bus, down 9%
from 22,730,000 bus in 2008, and soft
white winter wheat production was
projected at 187,603,000 bus, down
4% from 196,360,000 bus a year ago.
The Kansas winter wheat crop was
projected at 340 million bus, down 4%
from 356 million bus in 2008. Average
yield in the state was projected at 40
bus per acre, the same as last year. The
recent Wheat Quality Council Kansas
wheat tour forecast an average yield

Winter wheat production by states with comparisons
- (1,000 bus) -
Change
from
2008

2009

Per
cent
change

2008

2007

2006

Area harvested
(1,000 acres)
2009
2008

Per cent
change
from
2008

Yield
(Bus per acre)
2009
2008

Per cent
change
from
2008

Arkansas
California
Colorado

23,220
22,400
73,600

(32,640)
(11,600)
16,600

-58%
-34%
29%

55,860
34,000
57,000

28,700
21,465
91,650

18,605
14,500
39,900

430
280
2,300

980
400
1,900

-56%
-30%
21%

54.0
80.0
32.0

57.0
85.0
30.0

-5%
-6%
7%

Georgia
Idaho
Illinois
Indiana

12,000
57,400
50,400
29,670

(10,400)
(2,600)
(23,200)
(8,970)

-46%
-4%
-32%
-23%

22,400
60,000
73,600
38,640

9,200
51,830
48,950
20,720

5,880
54,670
60,970
31,280

240
700
800
430

400
800
1,150
560

-40%
-13%
-30%
-23%

50.0
82.0
63.0
69.0

56.0
75.0
64.0
69.0

-11%
9%
-2%
0%

Kansas
Kentucky
Maryland
Michigan

340,000
28,800
12,060
39,330

(16,000)
(3,860)
(1,080)
(9,660)

-4%
-12%
-8%
-20%

356,000
32,660
13,140
48,990

283,800
12,000
10,560
34,450

291,200
22,720
8,375
47,450

8,500
400
180
570

8,900
460
180
710

-4%
-13%
0%
-20%

40.0
72.0
67.0
69.0

40.0
71.0
73.0
69.0

0%
1%
-8%
0%

Mississippi
Missouri
Montana
North Dakota
Nebraska

12,000
38,250
93,600
22,540
67,200

(18,070)
(17,430)
(780)
(10)
(6,280)

-60%
-31%
-1%
0%
-9%

30,070
55,680
94,380
22,550
73,480

18,480
37,840
83,220
21,805
84,280

4,307
49,140
82,560
7,740
61,200

200
750
2,400
490
1,600

485
1,160
2,420
550
1,670

-59%
-35%
-1%
-11%
-4%

60.0
51.0
39.0
46.0
42.0

62.0
48.0
39.0
41.0
44.0

-3%
6%
0%
12%
-5%

New York
North Carolina
Ohio
Oklahoma

6,380
28,050
65,340
80,500

(1,306)
(15,150)
(8,780)
(86,000)

-17%
-35%
-12%
-52%

7,686
43,200
74,120
166,500

4,505
20,000
44,530
98,000

5,795
24,780
65,280
81,600

110
510
990
3,500

122
720
1,090
4,500

-10%
-29%
-9%
-22%

58.0
55.0
66.0
23.0

63.0
60.0
68.0
37.0

-8%
-8%
-3%
-38%

Oregon
Pennsylvania
South Carolina
South Dakota

38,160
10,620
8,160
75,950

(6,790)
(1,220)
(2,910)
(28,000)

-15%
-10%
-26%
-27%

44,950
11,840
11,070
103,950

38,160
8,990
4,050
91,080

37,440
8,850
6,150
41,400

720
180
160
1,550

775
185
205
1,890

-7%
-3%
-22%
-18%

53.0
59.0
51.0
49.0

58.0
64.0
54.0
55.0

-9%
-8%
-6%
-11%

Tennessee
Texas
Virginia
Washington
Wisconsin

19,200
64,800
16,170
102,000
18,910

(13,560)
(34,200)
(3,710)
5,680
(3,200)

-41%
-35%
-19%
6%
-14%

32,760
99,000
19,880
96,320
22,110

10,660
140,600
13,120
104,780
18,360

12,160
33,600
10,540
117,000
17,940

300
2,400
245
1,700
305

520
3,300
280
1,720
335

-42%
-27%
-13%
-1%
-9%

64.0
27.0
66.0
60.0
62.0

63.0
30.0
71.0
56.0
66.0

2%
-10%
-7%
7%
-6%

Other States

45,364

(20,703)

-31%

66,067

43,456

31,429

1,055

1,247

-15%

43.0

53.0

-19%

United States 1,502,074

(365,829)

-20% 1,867,903 1,449,241 1,294,461

33,995

39,614

-14%

44.2

47.2

-6%

42 / May 19, 2009

Milling & Baking News

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Milling & Baking News - May 19, 2009

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