Milling & Baking News - September 22, 2009 - 43



 Cash Wheat

HARD WINTER. Premiums on hard
red winter wheat in Kansas City were
unchanged to 10c a bu higher last week.
The widest gains were posted from 12%
through 12.6% as both mills and resellers bid for what little wheat with middle
protein was offered. The basis across the
top third of the protein scale was untested and unchanged.
Mills' interest in buying wheat to arrive in November-December or the first
quarter of 2010 was limited as flour
bookings for those periods recently
slowed. Export demand for hard red
winter wheat was light and pipelines
to ports were filled as evidenced by the
wide discount in exporter bids on nearby
supply compared with bids on October
and November-December shipments.
Farmer selling of wheat expanded
when prices spiked on Tuesday, but
enthusiasm dissipated when prices
dropped in subsequent days. Steady selling was expected in the next few weeks
as space is cleared for fall crops.
Rain across parts of the Southwest
slowed seeding of the 2010 wheat crop
during the weekend of Sept. 12-13, but
the moisture was beneficial for the crop
overall. Planting was 4% completed
in Kansas by Sept. 13 (7% as the 200408 average for date), 9% in Oklahoma
(14%), 16% in Texas (16%), 26% in Colorado (27%), 30% in Nebraska (26%),
22% in South Dakota (25%) and 25% in
Montana (18%), according to the U.S.
Department of Agriculture.
Grain storage was tight as the fall crop
harvest began to expand. Several elevators were preparing on-ground storage
for corn and sorghum. The U.S.D.A. on
Sept. 11 raised its forecasts for corn, soybean and sorghum production for the
state of Kansas. The state's corn crop was
projected at 518,400,000 bus, up 3,600,000

No. 1 hard winter
Basis Kansas City December, cents per bu
Sept. 18 - Change from - Year
Premium Sept. 11 Sept. 4
ago
Ordinary -40 @ -25 +2 @ +2
-4 @ -4 -40 @ -5
11%
-37 @ -22 +3 @ +3
-6 @ -6 -20 @ -5
11.2% -27 @ -12
-
-
-17 @ -2
11.4% -23 @ -8
-
-
-16 @ -1
11.6% -22 @ -7
-
-1 @ -1 -15 @ 0
11.8% -22 @ -7
-
-1 @ -1 -8 @ 7
12%
1 @ 16 +8 @ +8 +5 @ +5 -5 @ 10
12.2%
3 @ 18 +6 @ +6 +6 @ +6 -1 @ 14
12.4%
5 @ 20 +8 @ +8 +8 @ +8 0 @ 15
12.6%
7 @ 22 +10 @ +10 +10 @ +10 2 @ 17
12.8%
9 @ 24
-
-
5 @ 20
13%
14 @ 29
-
-
8 @ 23
13.2%
24 @ 39
-
-
9 @ 24
13.4%
29 @ 44
-
-
10 @ 25
13.6%
34 @ 49
-
-
11 @ 26
13.8%
39 @ 54
-
-
12 @ 27
14%
44 @ 59
-
-
19 @ 34
bakingbusiness.com / world-grain.com

bus from the August forecast and up 7%
from 2008, soybean production was projected at 140,000,000 bus, up 7,000,000 bus
from August and up 16% from a year ago,
and sorghum production was projected
at 221,400,000 bus, up 8,100,000 bus from
August and up 3% from last year.
HARD SPRING. Premiums on hard
red spring wheat in Minneapolis were
150c a bu higher to 25c lower last week.
Two markets for spring wheat were evident. On Friday, 15%-protein wheat was
quoted $2 a bu above 14%-protein supply,
and 14%-protein wheat was quoted $1.80
above wheat with 13% protein and $2.35
above wheat with 12% protein. The widening premium spreads across the protein scale reflected low average protein
of wheat harvested and marketed to date.
It is typical producers hold back their
higher-protein wheat early in the harvest
cycle in hope of realizing a better price
later in the season, a tendency that may
result in understating the average protein
in the crop. Regardless, there was scant
opportunity for millers to originate highprotein or even middle-protein wheat, reflected by the surge in the basis.
The spring wheat harvest in the six
key states as of Sept. 13 was 69% completed, up from 58% a week earlier
but well behind 92% as the prior fiveyear average for the date. Combining
was 56% completed in North Dakota
(91% as the average), 99% in South Dakota (100%), 68% in Minnesota (90%),
73% in Montana (91%), 90% in Idaho

(95%) and 99% in Washington (98%).
U.S. Wheat Associates on Sept. 18 indicated, based on 201 of 300 intended
samples, hard red spring wheat protein
was averaging 13.5% compared with
13.7% a week earlier (based on 134 samples) and 14.5% as the 2008 crop average.
Average test weight was running 62 lbs
per bu compared with 61.6 lbs a week
earlier and 60.8 lbs as the 2008 average. Falling number was averaging 388
seconds unchanged from a week earlier
compared with and 411 seconds in 2008.
The average grade was No. 1 northern
spring, the same as in 2008.
SOFT RED. Mill bids on soft red winter wheat were firm to 10c a bu higher.
In Kansas City, No. 1 soft red bids held
at 50c under K.C. December to K.C. December price. Gulf bids on soft red for
nearby ended unchanged at 30c under
Chicago December. St. Louis mill bids
held at 15c under Chicago December.
Chicago mill bids for nearby were 70c
under Chicago December. Mill bids in
Toledo for nearby were unchanged at
80c under Chicago December. Elevator
bids were 90c under December. Cincinnati mill bids rose 10c, to 80c under
Chicago December. Elevator bids were
125c under December. Michigan white
wheat mill bids ranged up to 85c over
Chicago December.
Winter wheat planting was 1% completed in Missouri on Sept. 13 (1% as
the average for the date) and 3% in
Michigan (3%). MBN

No. 1 hard spring

Cash wheat

Milling quality, basis Minneapolis December, cents per bu
Sept. 18
- Change from -
Year
Premium Sept. 11
Sept. 4
ago
Ordinary
...
...
...
...
11%
...
...
...
...
12%
-60 @ -35 -10 @ -20
-15@ -5
...
13%
-25 @ 20
-25 @ 0
0@ +35 -10 @ 20
13.5%
55 @ 60
+25 @ +25 +25@ +5
...
14%
120 @ 200 +40 @ +70 +55@ +105 20 @ 50
14.5% 220 @ 240 +50 @ +70 +110@ +30 50 @ 80
15%
370 @ 400 +120 @ +150 +130@ +140 160 @ 235
16%
...
...
...
...
17%
...
...
...
...

Exporter bids and offers
For
Sept. 18
shipment
Bid
Offer
No. 1 Hard 12%, Track Gulf
Basis Kansas City future, cents per bu
September
+31 Sep.
...
October
+55 Dec.
58
November
+63 Dec.
70
December
+65 Dec.
...
No. 2 Soft Red, c.i.f. New Orleans
Basis Chicago future, cents per bu
September
-30 Sep.
-25
October
-20 Dec.
-15
November
-10 Dec.
-5
December
-10 Dec.
0

Ingredient Week

Year ago
bid

...
+75 Dec.
+80 Dec.
+86 Dec.

-110 Sep.
-97 Dec.
-85 Dec.
-85 Dec.

Sept. 18 - Change from -
For shipment
Bid
Sept. 11 Sept. 4
No. 1 Soft White, Track, Portland
$ per bu
Nearby
...
...
...
September
...
...
...
October
4.50
-.18
-.30
No. 1 Hard 11.5%, Track, Portland
Basis Kansas City future, $ per bu
Nearby
0.20
-
...
September
0.20
-
-
October
0.30
-.05
-.05
No. 1 Spring 14%, Track, Portland
Basis Minneapolis future, $ per bu
Nearby
1.35
+.50
+.70
September
1.35
+.50
+.70
October
1.40
+.50
+.65

Year
ago
...
...
...
0.35
0.35
0.50

...
...
1.15

Canadian domestic milling wheat
Change from Year
In-store, Thunder Bay,
Sept. 18
Sept. 11
ago
Canadian $ per tonne
Western red spring 13.5% 250.90 +16.36
325.03
Soft white spring
198.99 -10.28
277.23
Amber durum
262.04 -14.35
535.35
U.S. $ per bu
Western red spring 13.5%
6.37
0.43
8.44
Soft white spring
5.05
-0.25
7.21
Amber durum
6.65
-0.35
13.92
Milling & Baking News September 22, 2009 / 43
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Milling & Baking News - September 22, 2009

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