Milling & Baking News - October 20, 2009 - 16

Data 

Wheat carryover for 2010 balloons
in latest U.S.D.A. forecasts

carryover forecast was raised 19
million bus from September, to 162
million bus, as the supply projection was lowered 11 million bus, to
592 million bus, principally because
of an 8-million-bu drop in the crop
estimate, to 404 million bus, while

projected unchanged from September at 78 million bus. Seed use was
projected 3 million bus higher than
in 2008-09 but 10 million bus lower than
Wheat carryover by classes
in 2007-08.
U.S. wheat exports
2010
2009
2008
2007
in 2009-10 were pro- (million bus) -
jected at 900 million
Hard winter
354
254
138
165
bus, down 50 milSoft red
162
171
55
109
lion bus from the
Hard spring
253
142
68
117
September forecast
White
42
64
37
44
and down 115 milDurum
53
25
8
21
lion bus, or 11%,
Total
864
657
306
46
from 1,015 million
bus in 2008-09. The
recent five-year averDomestic wheat use by classes
age wheat outgo was
1,051 million bus. The
2009-10 2008-09 2007-08 2006-07
U.S.D.A. said about
- (million bus) -
the lower export
Hard winter
475
472
446
453
forecast for the curSoft red
300
332
211
261
rent year, "HigherHard spring
265
273
242
249
than-expected wheat
White
101
100
68
100
production and supDurum
89
81
84
74
plies in the main
Total
1,223
1,260
1,248
1,137
wheat-exporting
countries of Canada,
Russia, the European
Wheat exports by classes
Union, Australia and
Kazakhstan will in2009-10 2008-09 2007-08 2006-07
crease competition
- (million bus) -
for U.S. exports, deHard winter
345
447
538
280
spite the weakening
Soft red
130
199
209
145
U.S. dollar."
Hard spring
215
210
305
248
The largest carWhite
170
136
170
195
ryover
adjustment
Durum
40
24
42
40
from September in
Total
900
1,015
1,264
908
forecasts for 2009-10
wheat supply and
demand by class was in hard spring projected domestic use was lowered
wheat. The carryover of hard spring 20 million bus, to 300 million bus,
wheat was raised 62 million bus, to and exports were reduced 10 million
253 million bus, as the pro- bus, to 130 million bus.
The white wheat carryover projecduction estimate was raised
Wheat supply, disappearance
40 million bus, to 551 million tion was lowered 11 million bus, to
bus, and projected exports 42 million bus. The white wheat 2009
2009-10 2008-09 2007-08 2006-07
were reduced 25 million bus, production estimate was dropped 11
- (million bus) -
million bus, to 237 million bus, while
to 215 million bus.
Supply
The projected hard winter a 10-million-bu decrease in projected
Carryover
657
306
456
571
wheat carryover was raised 2009-10 domestic use, to 101 million
Crop
2,220
2,499
2,051
1,808
50 million bus from Septem- bus, was offset by a 10-million-bu
Imports
110
127
113
122
ber, to 354 million bus, as increase in projected exports, to 170
Total
2,987
2,932
2,620
2,501
the production estimate was million bus.
Domestic disappearance
The 2010 durum carryover proraised 4 million bus, to 919
Food
955
925
988
938
million bus, while projected jection was raised 2 million bus, to
Seed
78
75
88
82
domestic use was lowered 15 53 million bus, as the production
Feed
190
260
16
117
million bus, to 475 million estimate was raised 12 million bus
Total
1,223
1,260
1,051
1,137
bus, and forecast exports were from the August forecast, to 110
Exports
900
1,015
1,263
908
Total disappearance
2,123
2,275
2,314
2,045
reduced 35 million bus, to 345 million bus, and the export foreEnding stocks
864
657
306
456
cast was raised 10 million bus, to 40
million bus.
The soft red winter wheat million bus. MBN
Continued from Page 1

bus in 2008. The 2008 wheat crop
was the largest since 2,547 million
bus were harvested in 1998.
The U.S.D.A. left unchanged its
projection for wheat imports at 110
million bus, which was 17 million
bus lower than the 2008-09 import
number.
Wheat supplies in the United States
for the 2009-10 crop year were projected at 2,987 million bus, up 26 million bus from the September forecast
and up 55 million bus from 2,932 million bus in 2008-09. The wheat supply
for the current year was the largest
since 3,268 million bus in 2000-01.
The department projected wheat
disappearance in the 2009-10 crop
year at 2,123 million bus, down 95
million bus from the September forecast and down 152 million bus, or 7%,
from 2,275 million bus in 2008-09.
Domestic use of wheat in the current year was projected at 1,223 million bus, down 45 million bus from
the September forecast and down
37 million bus from 1,260 million
bus in 2008-09. Food use of wheat
was projected unchanged at a record
955 million bus, but the feed and residual use forecast was lowered 45
million bus, to 190 million bus. Feed
and residual use of wheat totaled 260
million bus in 2008-09 and a mere 16
million bus in 2007-08. The U.S.D.A.
said the adjustment to the feed and
residual use forecast for 2009-10 resulted from lower-than-expected
disappearance during the June-August quarter as indicated in the Sept.
1 Grain Stocks report.
Seed use of wheat in 2009-10 was

16 / October 20, 2009 Milling & Baking News

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Milling & Baking News - October 20, 2009

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