Milling & Baking News - November 17, 2009 - 40

Ingredient Week 

 Wheat Futures

Wheat futures markets last week
shrugged off bearish government supplyand-demand data to post yet another
round of wide price gains. Advancing equity and commodity markets, a weak dollar
and fresh money flowing into agricultural
futures proved more persuasive to traders
than growing U.S. and world wheat supplies. Other agricultural markets, including
corn and soybeans, also advanced, with
soybean prices surging above $10 a bu in
some months despite U.S. Department of
Agriculture forecasts for record U.S. and
world soybean production in 2009-10.
The U.S.D.A. on Nov. 10 projected the
U.S. carryover of wheat on June 1, 2010,
at 885 million bus, up 21 million bus from
the October forecast, up 35% from 657
million bus in 2009 and the highest in 10
years. Wheat production was estimated
at 2,216 million bus, down 4 million bus
from the previous estimate and down
11% from 2,499 million bus in 2008. Wheat
imports were projected unchanged at 110
million bus. Total U.S. supply in 2009-10
was projected at 2,983 million bus, down
4 million bus from October but up 51 million bus from the previous year and the
largest supply since 2000-01.
Domestic wheat use was projected at

1,223 million bus, unchanged from October but down 37 million from 2008-09.
Wheat exports for 2009-10 were projected at 875 million bus, down 25 million
bus from October and down 14% from
1,015 million bus in 2008-09.
The U.S.D.A. projected 2009-10 world
wheat ending stocks at 188.28 million
tonnes, up 1.55 million tonnes from the
October forecast, up 14% from 164.74
million tonnes during the previous year
and the highest since 2001-02.
Net sales of U.S. export wheat in the
week ended Nov. 5 were 412,200 tonnes,
up 45% from a week earlier but down 5%
from the recent four-week average. Egypt
bought 295,000 tonnes of Russian wheat
last week with U.S. offers too high.
Planting of the 2010 winter wheat crop
was nearly completed in the hard winter
states but lagged in the Central states,
the key soft red winter wheat area. MBN

 Millfeed

Millfeed prices advanced to the highest levels since February in some markets. Price gains reflected seasonal factors and special circumstances. Especially important was a gradual tightening in offers with supplies in some areas
becoming nearly impossible to find.

Wheat futures

Kansas City wheat futures
December contract, $ per bu

$ per bu; change in cents per bu

Kansas City
December
March
May
July
Chicago
December
March
May
July
Minneapolis
December
March
May
July

Season's
Low

- Change from -
Nov. 6 Oct. 30

Week's
High
Low

Year
ago

High

5.40½
5.56½
5.68¼
5.80¼

+39½c
+39¼c
+39¼c
+39½c

+41½c
+41½c
+41½c
+42½c

5.45½
5.60½
5.71¼
5.83½

5.03½
5.18½
5.34
5.42

5.93¼
6.07½
6.18½
6.29

11.35
10.08½
7.71¾
11.20

(03-12-08)
(08-21-08)
(06-01-09)
(03-12-08)

4.58¾
4.75¼
4.86¾
4.98¼

(10-02-09)
(10-05-09)
(10-02-09)
(10-02-09)

5.39
5.59¾
5.72¾
5.83½

+41¾c
+42½c
+42¼c
+41¾c

+44¾c
+45¾c
+45¾c
+46¼c

5.40
5.61½
5.73½
5.82

4.99½
5.22½
5.53¼
5.47

5.54¼
5.74½
5.89
6.03

11.40
10.57
7.47¼
11.13½

(03-12-08)
(03-18-08)
(06-01-09)
(03-12-08)

4.39½
4.60
4.73½
4.85½

(09-30-09)
(10-02-09)
(10-02-09)
(10-02-09)

5.55¾
5.71½
5.83¾
5.96

+37½c
+37¾c
+38½c
+39½c

+43c
+43½c
+42½c
+44¼c

5.58½
5.75
5.86¼
5.98

5.18
5.37
5.49
5.60¼

6.57½
6.53¼
6.59½
6.68¼

11.70
9.65
9.65
9.65

(03-12-08)
(08-14-08)
(08-13-08)
(08-13-08)

4.77
4.93
5.04¾
5.13½

(09-30-09)
(09-30-09)
(09-30-09)
(10-02-09)

Nov. 13

Partly reflecting a record-high extraction rate across the nation, millfeed production has fallen below expectations.
End users in many cases have covered
needs through yearend and in some cases
through January. Earlier threats of substitution given high prices for millfeed
largely evaporated. Mold and mycotoxins forced feed manufacturers in the
Central states to remove some distillers'
dried grains from formulations, although
soybean hulls were becoming available.
Rail cars were increasingly tight in
many areas. In the Pacific Northwest,
rail cars from the Midwest were cut off,
reflecting cutbacks in flour grind. Local
users subsequently scrambled for trucks
with little available until after January.
California buyers also had great difficulty locating supplies. Quotes there
advanced as much as $15 a ton in only a
few days with outside supplies unavailable except at much higher levels.
Wheat germ prices were unchanged.
Bulk middlings were $120 a ton in K.C.
and $115 in Minneapolis compared with
corn at $123 a ton and sorghum at $102,
both K.C. Corn gluten feed was off $5 at
$120 a ton, distillers' dried grain was up
$7 at $135 a ton and dehydrated alfalfa
was steady at $205 a ton, all K.C. MBN

Chicago wheat futures
December contract, $ per bu

Bulk middlings
$ per ton, delivered rail unless noted
Spot
Kansas City
120 @ 125
Southwest, f.o.b. truck
132 @ 142
Minneapolis
119 @ 124
Upper Midwest, f.o.b. truck 115 @ 120
Chicago West
132 @ 137
Central states, f.o.b truck 110 @ 115
Buffalo
100 @ 110
Southeast
90 @ 96
N. & S. California
139 @ 152
Los Angeles, f.o.b. truck 135 @ 148
Pacific Northwest
130 @ 140
Upper Midwest, sacked
235
Wheat germ
235 @ 245

- Change from - Year
Nov.
Nov. 6
Oct. 30
ago
120@ 125 +8 @ +8 +13 @ +13 130 @ 135
132@ 142 +5 @ +10 +14 @ +20 135 @ 140
119@ 124 +5 @ +5 +10 @ +10 114 @ 118
115@ 120 +5 @ +5 +10 @ +10 110 @ 114
132@ 137 +5 @ +5 +10 @ +10 127 @ 131
112@ 117 +8 @ +7 +12 @ +12 105 @ 110
102@ 110 +7 @ +5
+7 @ +5 95 @ 105
90 @ 96
+5 @ +6
+9 @ +8 110 @ 115
139@ 152 +15 @ +13 +15 @ +13 144 @ 159
135@ 148 +15 @ +13 +15 @ +13 140 @ 155
130@ 140 +5 @ +5
+5 @ +5 150 @ 160

40 / November 17, 2009 Milling & Baking News

Dec.
123@ 128
133@ 138
119@ 124
115@ 120
132@ 137
115@ 120
105@ 115
90@ 96
139@ 152
135@ 148
130@ 140

Jan.-Mar. Apr.-June
105 @ 110 75 @ 80
115 @ 120 85 @ 90
99 @ 106 82 @ 88
95 @ 102 78 @ 84
112 @ 119 95 @ 101
100 @ 105 80 @ 85
85 @ 95
68 @ 75
80 @ 86
...@ ...
127 @ 142 ... @ ...
123 @ 138 ... @ ...
130 @ 140 ... @ ...

Minneapolis wheat futures
December contract, $ per bu

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Milling & Baking News - November 17, 2009

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