Milling & Baking News - February 23, 2010 - 42

Data 

U.S.D.A. sees mostly flat wheat
production and demand through 2019

42 / February 23, 2010 Milling & Baking News

2,125

2,110

2,095

2,080

2,060

2,030

2,070

2,090

2,000

2,216

2,499

five-year average. Wheat production
in subsequent years was forecast to
be mostly flat ranging from a low of
2,030 million bus in 2013 to a high of
WASHINGTON - The U.S. Depart- five-year average of 50.7 million 2,125 million bus in 2018 and 2019.
U.S. wheat imports in 2010-11
ment of Agriculture in its recently acres. Following the same pattern
issued agricultural projections for as wheat plantings, which assumes were projected at 110 million bus,
marketing years 2010-11 through average rates of abandonment, har- the same as the forecast for the cur2019-20 forecast U.S. wheat sup- vested area would increase nearly 1 rent year but down 17 million bus
ply and demand for the period at million acres in 2011 to 47.6 million from 127 million bus in 2008-09. Imrelatively flat levels with produc- acres but then would lose ground ports were projected to hold at 110
tion falling in 2010 and then hold- to 46.8 million acres in 2012 and million bus per year through 201314, increase to 115 million
ing below the 2009 outbus for 2014-15 and 2015turn for the remainder of
16, increase to 120 miltrend line and demand
U.S. wheat long-term
lion bus for 2016-17 and
rising only to the extent
projections for planted acres
2017-18 and increase to
required to accommo(million acres)
125 million bus for each of
date domestic population
the final two years of the
growth.
63.2
59.1
forecast period.
Area planted to wheat
55.0 56.0 55.0 53.5 54.0 54.0 54.0 54.0 54.0 53.5
Wheat supply in the
in the United States was
United States in 2010-11
forecast to drop to 55 milwas projected at 2,995
lion acres this year commillion bus (assuming
pared with 59.1 million
carry-in stocks of 885 milacres in 2009, 63.2 million
lion bus compared with
acres in 2008 and the re981 million bus as the
cent five-year average
2008-09 2010-11 2012-13 2014-15 2016-17 2018-19
U.S.D.A.'s most recent
wheat area of 59.5 million
Source: U.S. Department of Agriculture
forecast for the June 1,
acres.
2010, wheat inventory),
The 2010 wheat-planted
up 12 million bus from
area would be the smallU.S. wheat long-term
the projection for the curest since 54.9 million acres
rent year. In subsequent
in 1972. The U.S.D.A. proprojections for production
years, wheat supply was
jected a 1-million-acre in(million bus)
forecast to range from a
crease in wheat-planted
low of 2,965 million bus in
area in 2011, to 56 million
2016-17 to a high of 3,075
acres, but wheat seedings
million bus in 2012-13, a
in subsequent years of
range of 110 million bus.
the forecast period would
Disappearance of wheat
then drop and in most
in 2010-11 was forecast
years be either 54 milat 2,121 million bus, up
lion acres or 53.5 million
23 million bus from the
acres. The last time U.S.
projection for the current
farmers planted fewer
2008-09 2010-11 2012-13 2014-15 2016-17 2018-19
Source: U.S. Department of Agriculture
year of 2,098 million bus
than 53.5 million acres to
(the U.S.D.A. in its Februwheat was in 1970, when
then hover around 45.9 million acres ary World Agricultural Supply and
48.7 million acres were seeded.
The U.S.D.A. in commentary ac- or 45.5 million acres for the rest of Demand Estimates forecast 2009-10
disappearance at 2,007 million bus)
companying the trend line pro- the forecast period.
Average wheat yield in 2010 was and down 7% from 2,275 million
jections stated, "Wheat plantings
initially fall (in 2010) as producer projected at 42.7 bus per acre, down bus in 2008-09. In subsequent years,
returns are lower and late-harvest from 44.4 bus per acre in 2009 and a wheat disappearance was forecast
of some 2009 crops has prevented record 44.9 million acres in 2008. Af- to rise steadily from 2,179 million
some winter wheat plantings. With ter bouncing back to a forecast 43.9 bus in 2011-12 to 2,260 million bus
relatively weak overall demand bus per acre in 2011, average yield in 2019-20. In no year of the forecast
growth and continuing large stocks, was projected to increase steadily period was wheat disappearance
producer returns remain lower than along a forecast trend line at a rate projected to equal let alone exceed
the 2008-09 level.
in recent years, leading to a decline of 0.3 to 0.4 bus per acre per year.
Food use of wheat in 2010-11 was
Wheat production in 2010 was
in wheat plantings to about 54 million acres through much of the pro- projected at 2,000 million bus, projected at a record 960 million
down 10% from 2,216 million bus bus, up 5 million bus from 955 miljection period."
Harvested area for wheat in 2010 in 2009 and down 20% from 2,499 lion bus as the record forecast for the
was forecast at 46.8 million acres, million bus in 2008. The 2010 crop current year (the February WASDE
down from 49.9 million acres in would be the smallest since 1,808 projected food use of wheat in 20092009 and 55.7 million acres in 2008 million bus in 2006 and compared 10 at 940 million bus, which meant
and compared with the recent with 2,136 million bus as the recent the record food use would remain
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